Decoding the AI Hype: How Today’s Market Compares to the Dot-Com Bubble

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You’ve likely seen headlines comparing today’s AI-driven market to the late-1990s dot-com era. We take those comparisons seriously. This note outlines what’s different today, what still deserves caution, and, most importantly, how we’re positioning your strategy to hold up across a range of outcomes.1

Where Valuations Stand

Stock prices have climbed, and by simple measures of “price versus earnings,” the market looks more expensive than its long-term average. That’s a reason for discipline. However, it’s also true that the broad market remains below the most extreme levels reached in the late 1990s. You can see this in the valuation charts that track the relationship between prices and earnings over time.2

What’s Different From Dot‑Com Era

Back then, Barron’s magazine cover story in March 2000, called “Burning Up,” reported that 74% of 207 publicly traded internet companies had “negative cash flows” and at least 51 of those companies were projected to run out of money in the next 12 months. In contrast, today the largest parts of the market are producing real earnings, and overall profit margins across the major U.S. index remain above their five-year average. That doesn’t remove risk, but it does mean prices are supported by business results that we didn’t see from some companies in the dot-com cycle. FactSet’s latest quarterly review provides a good snapshot.3

AI Isn’t Just a Story—There’s Heavy Investment Behind It

A big reason certain companies have led is the build-out of the “plumbing” for AI: data centers, chips, software, and power. You can see this in government data, which shows manufacturing construction near record highs, much of it related to chip facilities, and in rising business spending on information-processing equipment and software. Those are dollars going into real plants, servers, and tools that support future productivity.4,5

Real Fundamentals – But Are AI Profits a Distant Dream?

Today’s AI landscape, where players boast robust business models and real fundamentals stemming from their core businesses, still is not without questions. While fortress balance sheets, resilient revenue, and strong earnings growth remain in place, the central point becomes: does the uncertain return on investment for AI justify the existing valuation levels, even if they aren’t as extreme as the Dotcom era? 

We have to remember that many of today’s leading AI companies still look expensive based on profits they made last year. Meanwhile, the forward looking bull-argument rests entirely on whether their earnings will grow to meet the evergrowing mountain of expectations. 

Intertwining Illusions of Growth

Beyond the frothy valuations, the AI hyperscaler ecosystem can feel like an Ouroboros (i.e.,  a snake that eats its own head). Okay, maybe that’s a bit extreme. However, it doesn’t take away from the increasingly circular dance of chipmakers, cloud providers, and foundational AI companies increasingly investing in one another.

Take for example, Microsoft’s $13billion investment in OpenAi in exchange for OpenAI agreeing to purchase $250 billion in Azure cloud services over the next decade. Microsoft is relying on OpenAI to find real, external customers to honor commitments in due time. 

However, readers should ask – even if OpenAI succeeds in building an Artificial Generative Intelligence (AGI), will there be enough downstream demand for its products and services (especially if AI is displacing jobs)? Or will the primary customer base for AGI simply be the same tech giants who funded its creation? With more interdependence, one setback amongst one of these players could ripple across the entire industry. 

Put simply, today’s “booming” AI revenue isn’t necessarily from new, organic customers with demand for AI services – it’s an internal recycling of investment capital that creates an illusion of growth where economic profit from external customers remains largely hypothetical. While long-term prospects for AI remain strong and we aren’t predicting a bubble, does being invested in an “expensive,” concentrated space predicated on nascent technologies warrant a closer look?  We think it does.

How We’re Managing Your Strategy

That brings us to AI and concentration levels in US Markets. While we’re not sounding alarm bells or declaring an “AI Bubble,” we do recognize concentrated exposure in US Markets (and especially to AI) presents vulnerabilities. That’s why we continue to build adequately diversified portfolios that not only invest around the globe, but also across asset classes such as bonds, gold, and commodities. Recently, we’ve performed a partial rebalance of our market-cap weighted S&P 500 holdings (heavily concentrated to AI) towards US companies with stronger balance sheets and profitability (i.e., “quality” characteristics). Ultimately, we believe we’re in a state where diversifying our client’s sources of “risk” will be prudent for meeting their long-term goals.

If you’d like to meet and discuss how your portfolio is positioned for both stronger and more challenging environments, please give us a call to schedule a meeting.9,10

Bottom line, your portfolio is being actively managed with vigilance and care, and we’re always here if you’d like to discuss further.

Phillip Law, CFA

Senior Portfolio Manager, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Sources:

1. Insights.com, October 08, 2025. “This Is How the AI Bubble Bursts” https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts Yale Insights

2. Yardeni.com, 2025. “Stock Market P/E Ratios“ https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/ Yardeni Research

The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged index that is considered representative of the overall U.S. stock market. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. The return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. And shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The term “Magnificent 7” refers to a group of seven influential companies in the S&P 500, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta Platforms.

The S&P MidCap 400 is a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index is designed to measure the performance of 400 mid-sized companies,

The S&P SmallCap 600 is a benchmark for small-cap companies. The index is designed to track companies that meet inclusion criteria, which include liquidity and financial viability.

3. FactSet.com, October 31, 2025. “Earnings Insight” https://www.factset.com/earningsinsight factset.com

4. Fred.StLouisFed.org, September 25, 2025. “Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing (TLMFGCONS) (manufacturing construction near record highs)” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCONS FRED

5. Fred.StLouisFed.org, September 25, 2025. “Private fixed investment in information processing equipment and software” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A679RC1Q027SBEA FRED

6. FederalReserve.gov, October 29, 2025. “Statement” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251029a.htm Federal Reserve

7. Reuters.com, October 29, 2025. “Fed to end balance-sheet reduction on Dec 1, 2025; cuts rates by 0.25%” https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/fed-end-balance-sheet-reduction-december-1-2025-10-29/ Reuters

8. Bloomberg.com, September 30, 2025. “What a US Government Shutdown Means for Markets” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-09-30/what-a-us-government-shutdown-means-for-markets Bloomberg 

9. Corporate.Vanguard.com, 2025. “Vanguard’s Principles for Investing Success” https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/vanguards_principles_for_investing_success.pdf Vanguard

10. Morningstar.com, April 1, 2025. “Q1’s Biggest Lesson for Investors: Diversification Works” https://www.morningstar.com/markets/q1s-biggest-lesson-investors-diversification-works

Business Exit Strategies on Your Terms

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If you’re a business owner, you’ll eventually step away from the company you’ve built. You might cash out to the highest bidder or work out a deal to sell the business to the next generation of your family or even to employees. The question is will you be able to make this transition on your own terms? The reality is that most business owners don’t have a clear, documented exit plan. And if you find yourself among them, you could find it leaves you in a tight spot when it’s time for you to step down. 

Delaying planning your exit risks settling for a below-market sale price, losing control of choosing your successor or rushing into choices that don’t reflect your vision. Delays also leave you with little time to take steps to boost the business’s valuation and ensure business continuity. A clear exit plan helps maximize options and value. If you haven’t mapped out yours yet, there’s no time like the present. Consider these steps:

Put a Price on Your Business

Proper valuation of your business is the first step in exit planning. Some back-of-the-envelope math can provide a decent starting point. But to really understand what your business is worth, meet with a valuation expert. Besides a healthy dose of objectivity, these professionals bring market expertise and a knowledge of valuation standards. They can identify intangible sources of value you may have overlooked and help ensure your valuation passes muster with potential buyers and the IRS.

There are three main approaches to determining value: 

  • The asset approach adds up the value of your company’s tangible and intangible assets, then subtracts liabilities. 
  • The income approach calculates value according to your business’s expected future cash flows. 
  • The market approach compares your business to recent sales of similar companies. 

You may find one approach is more apt than another for the type of business you own, but a comprehensive valuation is likely to incorporate all three in one way or another. Bear in mind that valuation isn’t a one-time event. As your business grows and market conditions change, you’ll likely want to update your valuation.

Clarify Your Vision

Before you can build an effective exit plan, it’s necessary to clarify your goals. Be as specific as possible as you define what a successful transition looks like to you. 

Some questions to keep in mind: Do you want to maximize the sale price, selling at the highest price possible? Do you intend to keep the business within your family or pass it to a handpicked successor? What are your obligations to employees? Is it important that your business maintains a consistent set of values when you’re gone? What timeline makes sense for you? How involved—if at all—do you want to be with the business after you exit?

The answers to these questions will guide the decisions that follow. They can be deeply personal, and we’re here to be a resource as you consider what’s truly important to you. 

Shape Your Exit

With valuation and goals in hand, there are a range of steps you can take to support your transition. What you do will depend largely on the type of exit you’re planning. For some owners, you might make strategic adjustments to boost the value of your business, such as reducing unnecessary expenses or diversifying revenue streams to make your company more attractive to buyers. 

If your plan involves transferring the business to a family member or a long-time employee, the sooner you identify them, the better. That way you’ll have plenty of lead time to train them in the leadership skills necessary to provide a smooth handoff. Depending on your situation, you might consider a sale, a gift or a combination of the two. Be aware that gifts to family members above the lifetime gift and estate tax exemption ($15 million for individuals in 2026) might trigger gift taxes. Meanwhile, sales to employees could trigger capital gains taxes. If your business is structured as an S corp or C corp, you might consider an employee stock ownership plan (ESOP), which could defer or even eliminate capital gain taxes if structured properly. 

Seeking an external buyer? Preparation is equally as important. In addition to boosting your valuation, you’ll need to organize your financial records, legal documents, contracts, employee agreements and operational procedures. One thing to consider is the type of deal structure that works best for you: Would you like to be paid over time or in one lump sum? And would you like to exit the company immediately or would you be open to staying on in an advisory capacity to help the new owner learn the ropes?

Begin the process of finding and vetting buyers early. These could be industry competitors, investment groups or individual entrepreneurs who may be a good fit. A business broker can help you identify potential buyers and spread the word through their network. 

Charting the Future

For many business owners, exit planning rarely tops the to-do list. After all, there are plenty of day-to-day demands competing for attention, let alone the fact that it can be difficult for owners to think about the day they’ll no longer lead the company they built. Yet the most successful exits are those planned in advance, allowing owners to optimize value, identify an ideal buyer or successor, and prepare their employees for a smooth transition. 

If you’d like to start a conversation about exit planning, we’d be happy to help you explore your options, develop a strategy that meets your financial goals and protects your legacy. here to help ensure your financial strategy stays aligned with your goals.

Emily Balmages, CFP®

Director of Financial Planning, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Rate Cut vs. Reality: Making Sense of Powell’s Mixed Signals

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Investors finally got the interest rate cut they were waiting for last month, but comments from the Federal Reserve Chair have some of them scratching their heads. Let’s see if we can make sense of these mixed signals.

Jerome Powell Brings Investors Up Short

The Fed reduced its target federal funds rate by 0.25% on September 17. Rate cuts tend to make equity investors optimistic: They figure lower interest rates will reduce borrowing costs, goosing economic activity and hopefully boosting corporate earnings and stock prices. This time around, investors may think the Fed cut helps validate the S&P 500’s nearly 35% gain since it bottomed in early April. 

Then, a week after cutting rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell uttered these words:

“By many measures…equity prices are fairly highly valued.”

Powell’s seemingly innocuous statement sounded like a loud needle scratch to some investors. Fed chairs don’t often comment on stock prices, so the fact that he chose this moment to highlight steep valuations raised questions. 

Is Powell—a renowned economist with more and better information than just about anybody—saying stocks are too highly valued? Are prices about to drop? Should you sell before it’s too late?

Are Stocks Expensive Right Now?

On the surface, it’s hard to quibble with Powell’s take. The most common way to gauge the broad stock market’s valuation is to look at the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500. And it’s high: As of September 26, the S&P 500’s P/E was 20% above the average of the past 10 years.1  

But the topic deserves a little more context. Certain parts of the stock market are driving up the average, so it’s probably more accurate to say that some equity prices are fairly highly valued. 

Specifically, tech stocks have risen on investor optimism about the potential for AI to drive future earnings. The tech sector had a P/E ratio over 30 as of October 1, compared to about 23 for the S&P 500 as a whole. By contrast, the energy, financials, health care, materials and utilities sectors all had P/Es in the teens.2  

Should You Sell When Stocks Are Pricey?

Everybody knows the investing adage “Buy low, sell high.” However, applying this in practice isn’t always straightforward. Fact is, pricey stocks can get more expensive, such that exiting stock positions solely based on valuations can materially harm portfolio outcomes in the short-term. In fact, a study by LPL Financial comparing historical stock market valuation to returns over the next 12 months found “no relationship whatsoever.”3

Just ask another renowned Fed Chair, Alan Greenspan. Almost 30 years ago, he famously described “irrational exuberance” in the stock market—and the S&P 500 surged more than 100% over the following four years.4

While valuations are a poor short-term timing tool, it’s true that high valuations can temper future returns.5 To address this, we have recently implemented a rebalancing strategy across our client accounts. This essential process automatically takes profits from assets that have become highly valued and redirects those funds to areas we believe have better forward-looking potential, ensuring your allocation stays on target.

Run-ups in the prices of some investments can throw off your asset allocation—the percentage of your portfolio you have devoted to specific investment types. That’s why we periodically rebalance your portfolio, resetting your allocations to your long-term targets. This process automatically reduces how much you have in assets that have gained the most and redirects those resources toward assets that have lagged.

Your financial plan is designed to weather the short term so you can focus on the long term. But if there’s ever a news story that gives you pause, you can always reach out to us to help put it into perspective.  

Phillip Law, CFA

Senior Portfolio Manager, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Sources:

  1. FactSet Earnings Insight, September 26, 2025. P/E based on forward earnings.
  2. Yardeni Research, October 2, 2025. P/Es based on forward earnings.
  3. LPL Financial, “Valuations Aren’t Great Timing Tools,” March 6, 2024.
  4. “Back in the ‘90s a Fed chief warned about ‘irrational exuberance’ in the markets. Stocks rose 105% over the next four years.” Fortune, September 30, 2025
  5. LSEG, “Do valuations correlate to long-term returns?” January 23, 2025

Counterintuitive Money Advice: Investing Against the Grain

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There are a lot of things in life where the right move is pretty intuitive. Avoid the top rung of a ladder when you’re changing a lightbulb. Don’t click on that suspicious link in your email inbox. 

But when it comes to your money, making smart decisions isn’t always so easy. In fact, there are a lot of times in investing where the intuitive move isn’t the best. A stand-out example is risk: For the most part, our brains and bodies tell us to avoid it. While it may seem smart to dial down risk in your investment portfolio, taking a too-conservative approach might leave you far short of your long-term goals. Making sound financial decisions often involves embracing counterintuitive strategies. Let’s explore a few more.

Less Action Often Leads to Better Results

Scenario: All too frequently, news headlines scream about stocks soaring or plummeting. When alarm bells like these ring, your impulse may be to take action. Zoom out and you’ll realize that a doom-and-gloom news cycle is practically a given. Buying and selling investments based on it is not a good idea.   

Counterintuitive advice: The urge to act on market movements can be hard to resist. However, investing is a long-term endeavor, and often the best move is to do nothing at all.

Consider the story of the Voya Corporate Leaders Trust highlighted by Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal a few years back. Established in 1935, this fund was designed to counteract the speculative excesses that contributed to the 1929 market crash. Its approach was radical: The fund purchased equal shares of 30 stocks and committed to holding them indefinitely. No new stocks could be added, and existing ones could only be sold under extraordinary circumstances, such as bankruptcy or mergers.

Despite being on “permanent autopilot” for nearly a century, the Voya fund has outperformed many actively managed funds—and even the S&P 500 at times. Patience and a hands-off approach can pay off over time.

Your Portfolio Shouldn’t Match the S&P 500

Scenario: When the S&P 500 has had a bang-up year, as it did in 2024—and 2023—you may be tempted to wonder why your portfolio didn’t keep up. In fact, it might lead to what’s known as “tracking error regret,” which occurs when investors second-guess their diversified approach because their returns don’t match a popular benchmark. 

Counterintuitive advice: Your portfolio is not built to match the S&P 500, which represents just one slice of the market—the 500 largest U.S. companies. 

Instead, it’s designed for reasons that are unique to you, whether it’s funding retirement, paying for kids’ college education or leaving your wealth for the next generation. A well-diversified portfolio is a powerful tool to help you meet those goals. Consider the classic 60/40 portfolio, which allocates 60% to equities and 40% to bonds. While it’s not likely to outperform an all-equity portfolio over the long run, it is structured to provide a buffer during periods of market turmoil.

Remember, it’s not the S&P 500’s performance that matters. What really matters is sticking with the right plan that will help you meet your financial goals.

Embrace the Bear

Scenario: When bear markets happen, it certainly doesn’t feel good. In fact, it may feel like you’re watching your wealth evaporate before your eyes. The impulse might be to cut your losses and sell. But bear markets have a tendency to change course. (In fact, they historically always have.) 

Counterintuitive advice: Market downturns provide an opportunity to rebalance your portfolio. Bear markets can be prime buying opportunities. When prices are low, you are essentially given the chance to buy shares of a company or a fund when they’re on sale. You may consider trimming positions in asset classes that have grown and buying more shares in those whose valuations have dropped. 

Rebalancing in this way helps you stick closer to the asset allocation strategy that’s at the center of your financial plan.

Putting It All Together

Whether it’s sticking to a diversified portfolio, viewing market downturns as opportunities or making smart spending decisions, counterintuitive strategies can help you stay on track toward your financial goals. 

As you reflect on your investments this year, remember that your portfolio is unique to you. It’s designed to meet your specific needs and long-term objectives. And sometimes, the best move is simply to trust your plan and let time do the heavy lifting. We’re here to field any questions you may have along the way.

Phillip Law, CFA

Senior Portfolio Manager, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

The “Big Beautiful Bill”: What It Means for Your Finances

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The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), signed July 4, 2025, is poised to significantly impact nearly every aspect of your financial life. From your tax bill to your healthcare and your children’s future savings, understanding the nuances of this bill is crucial for effective financial planning.

Here’s a breakdown of what the OBBB means for you:

Tax Planning: More in Your Pocket, But Mind the Details

The OBBB makes permanent many of the individual income tax rates and brackets from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), providing long-term clarity. But there’s more:

  • Expanded Standard Deduction: The standard deduction sees a permanent expansion, making tax filing simpler for many and potentially reducing the need to itemize.
  • Temporary Deductions (2025-2028): Get ready for some new, but temporary, tax breaks.
    • No Tax on Tips/Overtime: If you earn qualified tip income (up to $25,000) or overtime premium pay (up to $12,500 for individuals, $25,000 for joint filers), you may be able to deduct it. Keep an eye on income phase-outs.
    • Senior Tax Deduction: Individuals 65 and older meeting income thresholds ($75,000 single, $150,000 joint) can claim an additional $6,000 deduction, aiming to offset federal taxes on Social Security.
    • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: A temporary deduction of up to $10,000 for interest on loans for U.S.-assembled vehicles is available, subject to income phase-outs.
  • Increased SALT Deduction Cap: For five years, the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap temporarily increases to $40,000 (from $10,000), with income-based phase-outs. This is a win for residents of high-tax states.
  • Enhanced Child Tax Credit: The Child Tax Credit permanently increases to $2,200 per child and will be indexed for inflation.
  • Business Tax Incentives: Businesses will see the reinstatement of 100% bonus depreciation and permanent Section 199A (Qualified Business Income) deduction, encouraging investment.
  • Estate and Gift Tax Relief: The unified credit and Generation-Skipping Transfer Tax (GSTT) exemption thresholds are permanently increased to $15 million per individual, offering substantial relief for high-net-worth individuals.

Your Action Plan: Review your current tax strategies with a financial advisor to maximize these new permanent and temporary provisions. Consider whether itemizing still makes sense for you.

Healthcare & Social Programs: A Shifting Landscape

The OBBB includes significant cuts to federal funding for vital social programs:

  • Medicaid Changes: Expect cuts to Medicaid funding and new work requirements for many adult beneficiaries. If you or your loved ones rely on Medicaid, be aware of potential reduced coverage or new eligibility hurdles.
  • SNAP (Food Assistance) Adjustments: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) also faces federal funding cuts and expanded work requirements.
  • Affordable Care Act (ACA) Implications: New eligibility verification requirements are imposed for ACA marketplace coverage, and enhanced tax credits for ACA coverage are set to expire. This could lead to higher out-of-pocket premium payments for many, particularly older adults. The CBO estimates these changes could lead to a significant increase in the uninsured population.

Your Action Plan: Reassess your healthcare and benefits planning. Explore alternative options if you’re impacted by changes to Medicaid or ACA, and adjust your budget accordingly.

Retirement & Savings: New Avenues and Program Shifts

The bill introduces both opportunities and challenges for your long-term financial goals:

  • “Trump Accounts” for Children: A brand-new savings option for newborns. These “Trump Accounts” receive an initial federal contribution of $1,000, with parents able to contribute up to $5,000 annually. Classified as IRAs, gains are tax-deferred until age 18. This is a new consideration for long-term savings for your children.
  • Student Loan Program Overhaul: Federal student loan programs are undergoing significant alterations, potentially ending subsidized and income-driven repayment options. Limits are also placed on Pell Grant eligibility. Current and future students will need to adjust their education financial planning.
  • HSA and 529 Expansion: Good news for healthcare and education savings. Eligible uses for Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and 529 education savings plans are expanded, offering more flexibility.
  • Social Security Outlook: While the bill provides some temporary tax relief for seniors, its overall impact on the national debt could accelerate the insolvency of Social Security. This is a long-term consideration for retirement planning.

Your Action Plan: Evaluate “Trump Accounts” alongside existing savings vehicles like 529 plans. If you have student loans or are planning for higher education, understand the new repayment and eligibility rules. Review how you leverage your HSA and 529 plans for maximum benefit.

Investment & Business Considerations: Adapting to Policy Shifts

The OBBB also brings changes that could influence your investment portfolio:

  • Clean Energy Tax Credits: Many clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act are being phased out, which may impact investments in renewable energy and electric vehicles.
  • Fossil Fuel Promotion: The bill promotes increased domestic oil and gas production, which could influence investment strategies in the energy sector.

Your Action Plan: Consider how these policy shifts might affect your investment portfolio. Diversification and a long-term perspective remain key.

Overall Financial Planning Implications: A Holistic Approach

The “Big Beautiful Bill” is a game-changer. It necessitates a comprehensive review of your financial strategy.

  • Review Tax Strategies: Don’t miss out on new deductions!
  • Reassess Healthcare and Benefits Planning: Understand potential impacts on coverage and eligibility.
  • Evaluate Savings Options: Explore new opportunities like “Trump Accounts” and expanded HSA/529 uses.
  • Update Estate Plans: High-net-worth individuals should revisit their estate plans due to increased exemptions.
  • Adjust Investment Portfolios: Align your investments with the new economic realities. If you’re a client of ours, we’ve already done this for you.

The “One Big Beautiful Bill” is far-reaching. Given its complexity, consulting with a qualified financial advisor and tax professional is highly recommended to understand how these provisions specifically impact your unique financial situation and to adjust your plans accordingly. Schedule time with a Warren Street advisor today. .

Justin D. Rucci, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Sources:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Legislation-for-Historic-Prosperity-and-Deficit-Reduction-1.pdf

https://apnews.com/article/what-is-republican-trump-tax-bill-f65be44e1050431a601320197322551b

https://dart.deloitte.com/USDART/home/news/all-news/2025/jul/obbb-signed

https://www.bairdwealth.com/insights/wealth-management-perspectives/2025/10/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-how-it-may-impact-you

https://www.lathropgpm.com/insights/tax-update-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-signed-into-law-what-does-it-mean-for-you

https://www.loeb.com/en/insights/publications/2025/07/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-breaking-down-key-changes-in-the-new-tax-legislation

https://blog.zencare.co/obbba-bill-medicaid-therapy-cuts

https://www.investopedia.com/parents-and-the-big-beautiful-bill-11767091

https://www.crfb.org/blogs/obbba-would-accelerate-social-security-medicare-insolvency

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/what-trumps-anti-environment-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-means-for-your-wallet-health-and-safety

https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/long-term-impacts-one-big-beautiful-bill-act

I’ve Got a Lump Sum in Cash, Should I Invest It Right Away?

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What should you do if you’ve just received a big bonus at work, inherited some money, sold a business, or come into a financial windfall? Should you invest it all at once, even if the market feels high or low, or take a gradual approach by investing in smaller increments over time?

This is a common question we hear from clients and investors alike. It’s no surprise—deciding how to invest a significant sum of money can feel overwhelming. What if you invest it now and the market drops? Or, what if you wait and the market takes off? It’s natural to worry about making the wrong choice or missing out on potential gains.

Both investing a lump sum immediately and spreading it out over time come with their pros and cons. Let’s explore some key factors to help guide your decision.

Start with Your Goals

Before making any investment decisions, consider your financial goals.

If you need the money for short-term purposes, like upcoming college tuition, the market’s volatility could be a concern. In this case, conservative options like short-term bonds, bond funds, or CDs might be better suited to protect your funds.

For long-term goals, such as retirement, investing in the stock market may be a better choice. Despite short-term fluctuations, the market has historically trended upward over time.

Compare Lump-Sum Investing vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging

Investing a lump sum means your money is fully exposed to the market immediately, allowing you to benefit from any immediate gains if the market is rising. However, since markets are unpredictable, a downturn could occur soon after you invest.

If the risk of short-term losses makes you uneasy, dollar-cost averaging (DCA)—where you invest a fixed amount at regular intervals—might be a more comfortable approach. For instance, you could invest $12,000 by putting in $1,000 monthly over a year. This way, you buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when they’re high, helping you manage the average cost over time.

Keep in mind, though, that research shows lump-sum investing outperforms DCA 68% of the time. If maximizing returns is your main goal, lump-sum investing could be the better option. However, if you’re worried about losses and potential emotional reactions, DCA may be worth the slight reduction in expected returns.

Don’t Wait to Invest

Historically, stocks and bonds outperform cash over the long term, so it’s important to start investing as soon as possible. Holding off is essentially an attempt to time the market, which is notoriously difficult. In 2023, equity fund investor returns trailed the S&P 500 by 5.5%, largely due to market timing efforts.

Both lump-sum investing and DCA help you avoid this pitfall, letting you benefit from the market’s long-term growth. The key is choosing the strategy that aligns with your risk tolerance and long-term plan.

If you’re unsure which strategy is best for you, reach out—we’d be happy to help you decide.

Justin D. Rucci, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Understanding Market Volatility: Points vs. Percentages

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If you’re a fan of public radio’s “Marketplace” with Kai Ryssdal, you might have noticed the music they play when they “do the numbers.” On days the market is up, it’s “We’re in the Money,” and when it’s down, they play “Stormy Weather.”

These musical cues are a fun way to connect with listeners’ emotions as they hear about market highs and lows. But they also illustrate how the media often uses various tactics to evoke emotional responses, making financial news feel more dramatic. Some of these methods are lighthearted, but others can be more misleading.

Take, for example, how market volatility is reported in terms of magnitude (the number of points an index moves) versus percentage change. Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig has pointed out that while both describe the same movement, focusing on magnitude can often seem more dramatic.

Consider this: On Monday, August 5, 2024, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,033.99 points from the previous week’s close. For many, that number sounds alarming. It’s a large, eye-catching figure that grabs attention, which is exactly what news outlets aim to do.

However, this number doesn’t reflect where the index started. The Dow had closed at 39,737.26 points on August 2. A 1,033.99-point drop represents a 2.6% decrease—a notable one-day decline, but one that feels less dramatic when expressed as a percentage.

Zweig puts it succinctly: “By focusing on the magnitude, rather than the percentage, of price changes, news organizations…make markets feel more newsworthy, and volatile, than they are,” even acknowledging that his own publication can be guilty of this practice.

Why the Difference Matters

As human beings, we are prone to emotional reactions and cognitive shortcuts that aren’t always in our best interest. When we encounter information—especially if it appears alarming—we may focus on it in unproductive ways.

The way information is framed can significantly influence our reactions. This framing bias is similar to seeing a glass as half full or half empty. In this case, a 1,000-point drop in a market index might cause panic and lead to impulsive selling or, at the very least, cause anxiety. But remembering that this “big” drop is actually a 2.6% decline can help you maintain perspective.

How to Approach Market News

What should investors do when faced with market volatility? Start by recognizing the role emotions play in processing such information. When you hear a seemingly frightening statistic, question its true impact. Does it provide complete information? Is it taken out of context or exaggerated for effect? If so, it’s wise to view it with skepticism.

Once you understand how your biases and the presentation of information can influence you, you can focus on the long-term. Historically, the market has always risen over time. Sticking to your long-term investment plan allows you to benefit from this pattern.

If you ever have questions about the market and how to align your investments with your financial goals, feel free to reach out to us. We’re here to help you make informed decisions.

Veronica Cabral

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Key Financial Insights from 2024 and Looking Ahead to 2025

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As we approach the end of 2024, it’s an opportune time to reflect on the year’s financial developments and consider what 2025 may bring. We believe in understanding both the past and potential future of our economic landscape, which may help inform financial decisions.

This year has brought its share of financial developments, from market fluctuations to policy changes that have shaped the economic environment. Shifts in various sectors, interest rate movements, and global events have influenced financial strategies across the board.

Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate new opportunities and challenges in the financial world. Our team watches current trends and indicators to provide some insights for the coming year.

In this review, we’ll examine the key financial events of 2024 and their impact and potential implications. We’ll then turn our attention to 2025, offering our perspective on trends that may emerge in the coming months.

Whether you’re a long-standing client or simply interested in staying informed, we believe this overview may provide some insights for your financial strategies as we move into the new year.

Key Economic Factors in 2024

  • Interest Rates

During the September meeting, the Federal Reserve voted to lower interest rates by 0.5 percent, the first reduction in rates since 2020. While the pivot was long-anticipated, the size of the cut surprised many pundits following the Fed’s all-out fight against inflation launched two years ago. The move, unusual in an election year, brought the benchmark federal funds rate to a range between 4.75% and 5%. Some anticipate the Fed may adjust interest rates again in 2024.1

  • Inflation

The decision to trim interest rates moved the central bank into a new phase, and preventing further weakening of the U.S. labor market is now an important priority. For most of the past 2½ years, the Fed focused on fighting inflation. With the Consumer Price Index receding from 6.4% in January 2023 to 2.9% this July, the Fed pivoted attention to the softening job market. By comparison, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in August, up from 3.7% in January.1

  • GDP Growth

Real GDP growth rose by 3.0% quarterly annualized in Q2 2024, up from 1.6% in Q1 2024. This increase was led by stronger domestic demand and a surge in inventories. The Conference Board Economic Forecast estimates a 0.8% annualized GDP growth for Q3 and 1% annualized for Q4. With the third and final Q3 GDP estimate due to be released on December 19, attention will shift to Q4 and 2025. Looking into 2025, some economists watch the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool, which gives a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.2

  • Market Performance

Equity markets have seen strong, if uneven, performance in 2024. As of the end of October, the S&P 500 index was up 19.62% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 10.81%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ increased 20.54%.3 

Bonds have also shown volatility in 2024. As of October 31, the total return of the 10-Year Treasury Note was 4.28%.4

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. The return and principal value of financial markets will fluctuate as conditions change.

Key Takeaways

  • Up Markets Can Still Experience Volatility

While equity markets had strong overall performance in 2024, stocks did not go up in a straight line. There were some scary moments for investors, like April 12, when inflation and geopolitical worries saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average slide by 1.24%, the S&P 500 tumble by 1.46%, and the Nasdaq pull back by 1.62%. That bad day for the markets was dwarfed by August 5, when worries about slowing U.S. economic growth caused the Dow to fall more than 1,000 points, or 2.6%, while the broader S&P 500 lost 3% and the Nasdaq fell 3.4%.5,6

As disconcerting as these pullbacks felt at the time, stocks returned to record highs by September. An important lesson from this year is that stocks can, and often do, go down. It’s also critical to know that, on average, stocks have corrected approximately every two years, and that correction typically lasts a few months. Corrections, which are declines of between 10% and 20% from a recent high, can occur for a variety of reasons, including when unexpected news shakes investors’ confidence. Selling investments during a downturn may lock in your losses and lower your potential long-term returns.7

  • Don’t Fight the Fed

The past year has reinforced the influence the Federal Reserve has over the markets and investor psychology. The Fed held rates steady for much of 2024. It wasn’t until the September meeting that they made an adjustment. Markets reacted to every Fed meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell press conference. With inflation down from its highs (but not yet at the Fed’s 2% target) and employment softening, but not cratering, the Fed may have orchestrated the oft-talked-about “soft landing” for the economy. The lesson learned for next year is to pay attention to what the Fed is doing and remember the old Wall Street saying, “Don’t fight the Fed.”

  • Markets Shift Focus in an Instant

We all know that stocks can be volatile, but we only seem to care when they are volatile on the downside. Those 24 hours of angst between August 5 and 6, when the Dow dropped more than 1,000 points due in part to angst over the Bank of Japan boosting interest rates at a time when investors were borrowing the yen on the cheap to buy higher-risk stocks and derivatives. I doubt many of us had “Bank of Japan” on our radar, but market psychology can shift abruptly from “it’s all good” to “the sky is falling” without much justification. Focus can flip from concerns over an overheating economy to fears of a job-crushing recession on a dime. One lesson we hope you take away from 2024 is not to let emotions control your investment decisions. A solid financial strategy should be designed to withstand short-term market moves and keep you on track toward your long-term financial goals.9

  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) is Here to Stay

AI has been a major market story in 2023 and 2024 and shows no signs of slowing. While AI has been advancing for decades, innovations in machine learning have found exciting and extraordinary new use cases in areas from healthcare to manufacturing. One popular chatbot jump-started the current AI interest, reaching 100 million monthly active users just two months after its launch, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history.8 

AI is being seen as the most innovative technology of the 21st century and has the potential to both enhance and disrupt major industries. Innovations in electricity and personal computers unleashed investment booms of as much as 2% of U.S. GDP as the technologies were adopted into the broader economy. Now, investment in artificial intelligence is ramping up quickly and could eventually have an even bigger impact on GDP, according to Goldman Sachs Economics Research.10

The AI lesson to take away from 2024 is that AI is not just focused on a handful of companies. Company interest in AI has already increased rapidly, with more than 16% of enterprises in the Russell 3000 mentioning the technology on earnings calls, up from less than 1% in 2016.10 

  • Asset Allocation is Essential

Asset allocation is an approach to help manage, but not eliminate, investment risk in the event that security prices decline. The strategy involves spreading your investments across a wide range of assets to spread the risk associated with concentrating too heavily on any single investment. Simply put, diversification is the “don’t keep all your eggs in one basket” approach to portfolio construction.

Asset allocation is more than choosing a single investment, like one that is based on the S&P 500 stock index. One of the more significant and concerning trends in recent years has been the rise of market-cap-weighted indexes, which has led to increased concentration in just a few dominant stocks, mostly in the technology sector. Due to their outsized market capitalizations, these stocks, dubbed “The Magnificent 7,” may make up a disproportionate part of some investor portfolios. Another lesson from 2024 is that the downside can be significant when heavily concentrated stocks pull back simultaneously.11

  • Emergency Preparedness is Always Critical

The year 2024 has shown us that unexpected economic downturns or crises can impact investors without warning. You should consider having an emergency fund to cover living expenses so you aren’t forced to make short-term decisions that could impact your long-term goals. You should also work with a financial professional to discuss risk management strategies that can keep you moving toward your goals.

  • Prepare for What You Can, Don’t Overreact to What You Can’t

With the presidential election now behind us, potential tax and regulation policy transitions remain. Politically speaking, implementing policy goals and regulations is more challenging than making pledges. Be ready to shift strategies for you, your loved ones, and your heirs if necessary. In other areas, there may be little you can do other than to try not to overreact to what comes down from Washington. Working with financial, tax, and estate professionals can help you navigate what may happen in 2025 and beyond.

  • Applying Lessons and Looking Forward to 2025

As we reflect on the financial landscape of 2024, it’s clear that the market continues to evolve in response to global events, technological advancements, and economic policies. The lessons from this past year underscore the importance of maintaining a balanced, long-term perspective with your personal finances.

To summarize the key takeaways from 2024:

  1. Market volatility remains a constant, emphasizing the need for diversified portfolios.
  2. The Federal Reserve’s decisions continue to impact market dynamics.
  3. Emerging technologies, particularly AI, are reshaping industries and potentially creating new investment opportunities.
  4. Global events can rapidly shift market focus, reinforcing the value of a well-structured financial strategy.

Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate continued evolution in the financial sector and are committed to staying on top of these changes and providing you with timely insights and guidance. Our team is dedicated to helping you navigate the complexities of the financial world and working towards your long-term goals.

We will continue to monitor key economic indicators, policy changes, and market trends, sharing our analysis through our regular blog posts and communications. Our aim is to provide you with the information and support you need to make informed financial decisions in the coming year and beyond.

Remember, personal finance is a collaborative effort. While we provide the insights, your personal goals and circumstances are at the heart of every strategy we develop. We encourage you to reach out to us with any questions or concerns as we move into 2025.

Thank you for your continued trust in our team. We look forward to guiding you through another year of financial opportunities and challenges.

Bryan Cassick, MBA, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Sources:

1. The Wall Street Journal, September 18, 2024

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-cuts-rates-by-half-percentage-point-03566d82

2. The Conference Board, September 17, 2024

https://www.conference-board.org/publications/pdf/index.cfm?brandingURL=us-forecast

3. Yahoo.com, October 31, 2024. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. The return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. And shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

https://finance.yahoo.com/

4. Yahoo.com, October 31, 2024. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid.

https://finance.yahoo.com/

5. NBCNews.com, April 12, 2024

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/dow-tumbles-475-points-sp-500-suffers-worst-day-january-inflation-woes-rcna147647

6. NBCNews.com, August 5, 2024

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/live-blog/us-stocks-lower-asia-europe-decline-impact-rcna165129

7. American Century Investments, March 26, 2024

https://www.americancentury.com/insights/rebounding-from-market-corrections-and-bear-markets/

8. Reuters, February 2, 2023

https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/#:~:text=ChatGPT%2C%20the%20popular%20chatbot%20from%20OpenAI%2C%20is%20estimated,history%2C%20according%20to%20a%20UBS%20study%20on%20Wednesday.

9. U.S. News & World Report, August 8, 2024

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/will-the-stock-market-crash-risk-factors#job-market

10. Goldman Sachs, August 1, 2023

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/ai-investment-forecast-to-approach-200-billion-globally-by-2025

11. Institutional Investor, August 6, 2024

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2djf78zma3erdsxw8k8hs/innovation/as-mag-7-concentration-intensifies-so-too-does-the-race-to-find-diversifiers

Equity Compensation: Benefits and Risks You Need to Know

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A small slice of equity compensation can boost your income, while a larger slice might bring a significant financial windfall. However, luck and careful management play crucial roles. Balancing the risks and rewards of your equity compensation is essential. Understanding how it fits into your overall financial plan can help you maximize benefits and avoid concentration risk—the danger of having too much wealth in one stock.

Equity Compensation Basics 

Equity compensation comes in various forms, such as stock options, restricted stock units, or employee stock purchase plans. The equity package you receive might come with a vesting schedule, which determines how quickly you’re able to take ownership of your shares. For companies, these vesting schedules accomplish an important goal: They help keep you around longer.

Understanding every part of your equity compensation package is essential. This includes vesting rules, types of shares, expiration dates for exercising stock options, and tax implications. Missing an expiration date can mean losing the chance to buy company stock at a discount, and knowing the tax details can help you manage your tax burden and retain more of your hard-earned equity. While you don’t need to master every detail, it’s crucial to understand your equity compensation offer.

At Warren Street, we guide clients through the wealth-building potential of their executive compensation packages. We help you maximize opportunities, integrate the package with your broader financial goals, and collaborate with other resources. For example, your company’s HR department or benefits administrator can provide details, your accountant can advise on taxes, and a lawyer can help with legal aspects and estate planning related to your equity compensation.

Understanding the Risks of Equity Compensation

One downside of equity compensation is that it can tie up a large portion of your wealth in a single stock. This is known as concentration risk. 

Not all risk is bad. In fact, a foundational part of investing is taking on risk in exchange for potentially higher returns. This is systemic risk—the risk inherent in the financial markets at large. However, concentration risk means your wealth is closely tied to one company’s performance, posing significant danger if the company faces issues like scandals or competitive disruptions.

Relying on your employer for income and savings can be risky. If the company performs poorly, you could lose both your job and a significant part of your wealth. For example, during the 2020 pandemic, ridesharing company stock prices tended to lose value as ridership plummeted. These companies laid off thousands of workers, and employees lost both jobs and equity value.

“But” you may counter, “I know my own company, and I’m confident its future is bright.” This is a common reaction—and may be a sign you’re falling into a common behavioral tendency known as familiarity bias. It can lead you to the false assumption that your own company is safer, and your familiarity may actually be keeping you from making a level-headed investment decision. Instead, lean on objective data and research rather than feelings to inform your investment decisions. 

Solving Concentration Risk 

Minimize concentration risk by diversifying, carefully divesting company shares, and investing in broad market funds. This approach smooths out volatility, maximizes long-term returns, and manages systemic risks.

If you work for a privately held company, selling your shares can be more tricky—and perhaps not possible. In that case, we can help you explore options to reduce risk. For example, that may mean building a larger emergency fund to give you more protection from the unexpected or exploring financial strategies to hedge your equity position. 

No matter your equity compensation package, you don’t have to navigate its complexities alone. Contact us to discuss your options and maximize your financial potential.

Bryan Cassick, MBA, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.