Is Tesla Flying Too Close to the Sun?

743%. That’s how much Tesla stock (Ticker: TSLA) returned in 20201. Most of us are aware of the bifurcation between the market’s seemingly invisible ceiling and the economy’s continued disarray, but nobody could have foreseen that Elon Musk and his army of “musketeers” would be amongst those most rewarded for owning increased allocations of TSLA stock.

In fact, 2020 was an eventful year for the electric vehicle company. Among a series of roller coaster weeks, a stock split announcement, and raging debate over analyst price targets, perhaps TSLA’s most noteworthy 2020 phenomenon was its inclusion in the S&P 500 Index – a profound move that has us concerned over the stock’s perceived immortality at the forefront.

On December 21, 2020, the S&P 500 Index committee formally added the “profitable” carmaker to the index after denying TSLA index entry earlier in the year. The circumstances around this inclusion eerily resembles something we’ve seen before. Does “You’ve Got Mail” ring a bell? That’s right – we see multiple uncanny parallels between the TSLA and former net stock giant: American Online (AOL).

Echoes of The Past

On December 23, 1998, Standard & Poor’s announced it would make American Online the first “net” stock featured in the S&P 500 Index. Leading up to the announcement, AOL rallied 510% year-to-date2, before ending the year with a return of 585%. Compare this to TSLA, which had run-up 388%3 by the time the committee made its announcement on November 16, 2020. As mentioned previously, TSLA’s 2020 return was 743%. Notice here that a large proportion of TSLA’s 2020 return came in the last month and a half in the year…talk about upward volatility.

Arguably, the most intriguing similarity between these two stocks is the amount of price action driven by momentum and fear of missing out (FOMO). Investors overlooked red flags related to both AOL’s fundamentals and underlying profitability of tech stocks. AOL eventually lost 91%4 of its market value after a failed merger with Time-Warner cable. Meanwhile, valuations of tech stocks (represented by the Nasdaq Index) peaked in early 2000 before seeing 78%5 of its value disintegrate. Fast forward to the end of 2020, you have Tesla, a company whose “profitability” is primarily tied to energy credits, octupling (8x) its stock price to levels many investors deem uncomfortable.

Will TSLA suffer the same fate as AOL and other dotcom counterparts? Obviously 2021 is a different year. The carmaker makes electric-powered cars, not an instant messaging platform. We do acknowledge that historical performance is not indicative of future performance; and that correlation does not equal causation. However, it’s important to remember that those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

How Much TSLA Do You REALLY Own?

TSLA’s inclusion in the S&P 500 Index raises a new challenge for investors: hidden concentration risk. With TSLA now a part of the NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and widely regarded S&P 500, owning index funds inherently carries TSLA exposure. Borrowing from our friends over at WisdomTree, imagine a scenario where Portfolio A holds broad index funds in addition to a few well-known names.

What investors thought was a 2.50% allocation to TSLA is at 4.00%6. I know, I know. 4% doesn’t seem like a big deal. Besides, what investor puts 90% of their equity allocation into only broad U.S. ETFs? (You’d be surprised). The more important point though, is that volatile price action with TSLA can hide how much of the stock you really own.

At the end of 2019, TSLA shares were at $83.67. As of Friday, January 15, 2021 – the stock sits at $824.91 – almost ten times over its stock price just a year ago. Let’s say you owned Portfolio A on December 31, 2019. As of January 15 this year, TSLA would comprise 19% of Portfolio A’s exposure (see Appendix A). Obviously, price appreciation and concentration risk create their own problems (e.g., skewed returns, tax consequences), but when the underlying rationale for that price appreciation is in question by the investment community at large, you could have an even bigger problem on your hands.

 Will TSLA Fall Back Down to Earth?

Today, it seems as if TSLA has really shot over the moon, multiplying its stock price ten times in a little over a year. Will the carmaker continue to defy odds throughout 2021? Or, is Tesla a ticking-time bomb waiting to explode?

We at Warren Street Wealth Advisors aren’t equity research moguls here to publish a Buy, Sell, or Hold on this highly debated stock. However, we do acknowledge that no company is immune from idiosyncratic risk. Whether Tesla can stay above the influx of foreign competition (e.g., NIO, Volkswagen), or whether or not valuations are outstretched represent just a few of many risks to the company’s stock price.

One observation fueling TSLA’s controversy is that despite having a much larger market cap relative to other established vehicle manufacturers (see above), the company only generated $28.2 billion in sales7. Compare this to a combined $1.1 trillion in sales7 for all its auto competitors listed above. How can a company, which does a fraction of its competitors’ sales, be worth more than all of them combined? Again, TSLA isn’t just a car company – it’s thought to be a generational leader driving the next revolution in clean energy; but nevertheless, some food for thought while you’re on the road.

Tesla’s ride sure was wild in 2020, and nobody can guarantee what will happen in 2021. However, as prudent investors, it’s important to not overlook the implications that a high-flying stock can have on client portfolios. We’re not here to argue whether Tesla’s run has just begun or if the stock’s price is dangerously inflated. But if the latter of those two ideas rings true, the world could be shocked when it sees electricity and a bubble come together.

Footnotes:

  1. YTD total return as of 12/31/2020 sourced to YCharts.
  2. YTD total return for 12/23/1998 and 12/31/1998 sourced to historicalstockprice.com.
  3. YTD total return as of 11/16/2020.
  4. AOL’s market cap plummeted from $226 billion to roughly $20 billion in 2003, sourced to Bezinga.
  5. NASDAQ percent off high spanning 12/31/1997 to 12/31/2003.
  6. 4.04% is the summation of multiplying TSLA weight in index by index weight in portfolio.
  7. Trailing twelve-month figures.

Appendix A

For any questions regarding international investments, emerging markets, or wealth management, please call 714-876-6200 or email phillip@warrenstreetwealth.com

Phillip Law, Portfolio Analyst

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Gold Rush of 2020

In 1848, thousands of people grabbed their shovels and crossed land and sea to Sutter’s Mill with hopes of striking gold. Almost 150 years later in 2020, a similar parallel is happening not in San Francisco, but rather in the investable market for this hot commodity.

Year-to-date (YTD), gold has experienced more inflows than other broad stock and bond funds, including SPY and AGG which track the S&P 500 and Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index, respectively. Amongst a myriad of asset classes, investors are choosing gold as their choice for safekeeping, thus driving gold prices to an all-time high. This year alone, gold is up 33.53% YTD compared to U.S. Stocks at 4.69% YTD and U.S. bonds at 7.83% YTD. But why exactly is a gold rush taking place in 2020?

Source: YCharts

Data as of 8/05/2020

You may attribute the surge in gold prices to the pandemic, but mine deeper and you will find more.

Source: YCharts

Data as of 8/05/2020

Source: YCharts

Low Yield Environment: Earlier in March, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to 0 – 0.25% to stimulate the economy amid an economic crisis. As a result, treasury yields fell drastically. The 10 Year Treasury rate started the year at 1.88% and now only yields an all-time low of 0.52%, or -1.05% adjusted for inflation. Although treasuries are often used as a safe haven during uncertain times, negative real yields alongside inflation expectations might make gold a more attractive store of value.

Inflation Expectations: Fiscal stimulus through a $2.2 trillion package, rapid money printing, and unprecedented quantitative easing has prompted investors to seek gold as an inflation hedge. Current levels of inflation, however, do remain low at 1.19% year-over-year relative to the Fed’s target of 2.0%, and are likely to stay low in the short term (due to aggregate demand and supply shocks). While there is no tell-all sign indicating future long-term inflation is upon us, the following is certain: whether gold investors are overreacting or whether U.S. inflation is a ticking time bomb remains to be seen.

A Weakening U.S. Dollar: With fiscal debt as a percentage of GDP and M2 Money Supply at an all-time high, confidence in the U.S. dollar is diminishing relative to other currencies including the Euro. This comes at a time where the European Union appears to maintain a tighter grasp on COVID-19 outbreaks, alongside newfound unity in the form of a centralized stimulus package and debt mutualization. Overall, supposed weakness in the U.S. dollar has turned investors towards gold to maintain the purchasing power of their greenbacks.

With this context, it seems like anyone would jump at the chance to own gold; but to avoid grabbing a handful of pyrite (fool’s gold), let’s evaluate gold’s performance and properties as an asset class. During the 1980’s and 1990’s, gold yielded less than ideal returns. In the late 2000’s, the metal’s performance accelerated as investor confidence faltered during the Great Recession, but subsequently dipped in the 2010’s when the U.S. economy proceeded onto its longest economic expansion.

Source: YCharts

Data spanning 1/01/1980 to 12/31/2019

Based on history, we can draw two conclusions: 1) gold’s volatile nature indicates that its current run may not be sustainable over long periods of time and 2) gold’s performance suffers when investors regain confidence and begin to adopt a risk-on posture. To see gold’s performance coming out of recessions, see Appendix A. (link)

5-Year Correlation Matrix (Rolling Monthly Returns)

Data as of 8/07/2020

Source: YCharts

Gold generates zero passive income, so why do investors hold it? One reason is simply because it’s different and provides a diversification benefit. This metal exhibits less correlation compared to broader asset classes, meaning it simply behaves differently. A correlation of 1 indicates that the assets’ return behaviors are identical, while a correlation of -1 means they move in completely opposite directions. Given gold’s weaker correlations, it is likely to thrive when stocks or other asset classes experience large drawdowns. In other words, gold zigs while others zag.

Having understood the nuances of gold as investable asset and its diversification benefit over a long-time horizon, Warren Street Wealth Advisors previously made the decision to maintain gold exposure through Gold Minishares (GLDM) in our Diversifiers sleeve. Our investment strategies are now reaping the benefits of gold’s recent rally and allow for different courses of action. For example, with current gold prices bid up relative to historical levels, we can trim profits to invest in cheaper assets classes with higher potential for appreciation. This in essence, is buying low and selling high.

Gold prices will likely stay in the headlines and continue to gain traction in coming months. Regardless, we encourage you to start with your long-term asset allocation in mind and refrain from overthinking market entry/exit timing on any specific asset class. Preventing permanent capital impairment and building portfolios for your short term and long-term needs remains our top priority. We will diligently tax loss harvest and perform recurring rebalances along the way to take advantage of tactical long-term opportunities we see appropriate. That to us, is striking gold in 2020.

Appendix A:

Phillip Law

Portfolio Analyst, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss.  

‘Risk On’ trades take the lead in October

‘Risk On’ trades take the lead in October

Key Takeaways

  • U.S. growth stocks and emerging markets jump-started the 4th quarter with returns of 2.82% and 4.22% respectively as investors shifted away from ‘risk off’ assets such as defensive stocks and U.S. Treasury bonds
  • The FOMC dropped its federal funds interest rate target for the 3rd time in 2019 to 1.5% – 1.75%. Chairman Powell indicated this cut was the last of the ‘midcycle adjustments’, causing investors to speculate about a pause in rate changes for the next few FOMC meetings.
  • The U.S. and China made progress toward a trade resolution, though the pace and magnitude of the agreement is unclear. Global economies seem to be successfully navigating geopolitical tensions in Hong Kong, unrest in Chile, water wars in Egypt, and the never-ending Brexit saga, among others.
  • Conclusion: Barring a major geopolitical misstep, the U.S. stock market could end the year with a return in the top 25% since 1998. U.S. bonds may end with their best return since 2010.

Global stocks begin to close the gap with the U.S.

The 4th quarter is off to a great start! Despite a sharp decline the first few days of the month, global stock markets were very strong in October. Emerging Markets equity beat the S&P 500 for the second month in a row, up 4.22% versus 2.17%[1]. In typical ‘risk on’, ‘risk off’ fashion, bonds and gold lagged the field in October. Commodities stayed within sight of the leaders at +1.24% for the month, but U.S. and Emerging Markets bonds were far behind at +0.41% and +0.30%, respectively. For the year-to-date, Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) is picking up the pace with a return of 20.05% versus 23.16% for the S&P 500. The year-to-date leader as of October 31st is U.S. growth stocks at 26.77%.

https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui

This strong start to the 4th quarter can be attributed to progress with China/U.S. trade negotiations and no significant negative news about the other international worries facing the markets: Brexit, political uncertainty in the U.S. and overseas, tensions between Hong Kong and China, and soft business confidence around the world. If none of these go terribly wrong, 2019 is on track to be in the top 25% of S&P 500 stock market returns since 1988[2].

Amid this backdrop of relative stability, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered its short-term target interest rate for the third time in 2019 to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%[3]. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that U.S. economic growth is steady despite continued weakness in business investment and exports, and core inflation is running below the Fed’s 2% target. The October rate cut was characterized as the final ‘midcycle adjustment’ to help support the maturing U.S. economic expansion. Chairman Powell indicated the FOMC will continue to monitor economic activity to determine the appropriate level of the federal funds rate going forward. His remarks did not include previous language about the Fed acting “as appropriate to sustain the expansion”, causing market watchers to expect a pause in rate changes going forward.

Source: BNP Paribas Asset Management, Bloomberg as of 11/4/2019

In the days following the rate cut, intermediate and longer-term Treasury yields rose, reversing the yield curve inversion seen for much of 2019 and signaling diminishing investor expectations for a near-term recession.

The return to an upwardly-sloping yield curve is a relief to market watchers. A healthy banking system requires short term rates to be lower than long term rates for banks to maintain consistent profit margins. Higher long-term yields encourage investors to take a longer-term perspective and make more strategic investments. Institutions such as pension plans also have a better chance of satisfying their obligations to future retirees. In general, financial markets do a much better job allocating capital when short-term interest rates are lower than long term rates.

Source: www.treasury.gov

Looking beyond Treasuries, corporate bond yield spreads have drifted back toward the extremely low levels seen in early 2018. This is another indication that investors are comfortable taking risk right now. At Warren Street Wealth Advisors, we’re watching for excessive risk taking which could mean an asset price ‘bubble’ and potentially the end of the stock and bond rally. The occasional drops in market prices we see from time to time are a healthy sign that investors are making rational decisions rather than reckless speculation.

Corporate bond risk premiums drift near historic lows

Let’s not forget the global economy, which the Fed has often mentioned as one reason for reducing interest rates this year. Though the data remains mixed, the International Monetary Fund is forecasting global GDP to close 2019 up 3%, with the U.S. at 1.7% and Emerging and Developing Economies up nearly 4%[4]. The IMF expects global growth to improve in 2020 to 3.4% as Europe adjusts to the new tariff landscape and political uncertainties diminish.

Global GDP projected to remain low but positive

A global recession is highly unlikely through the end of 2020 and probably longer, but there are significant risks to this outlook! The IMF is urging political leaders to defuse trade tensions and reinvigorate multilateral cooperation, rather than focus solely on accommodative monetary policy to keep the world economy afloat.

Bottom line: The U.S. economic expansion remains on track and should end the year well, barring significant missteps in the global economic and political landscape. Though it’s been a bumpy ride, investors are likely to close the books on 2019 with healthy profits from both stocks and bonds, and meaningful progress toward achieving their financial goals.

Marcia Clark, CFA, MBA

Senior Research Analyst, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

 

 

DISCLOSURES

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications.

Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200

Growth stocks take the lead year-to-date

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1] Performance represented by ETFs designed to track various market segments: SPY (S&P 500), AGG (Barclay’s Aggregate Bond index), EEM (emerging markets equity), EFA (developed international equity), GLD (gold prices)

[2] Source: www.stockcharts.com

[3] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20191030a1.pdf

[4] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019