Taking a Loan from Your Retirement Plan = Bad Idea

Taking a Loan from Your Retirement Plan = Bad Idea

Why you should refrain from making this move.

Thinking about borrowing money from your 401(k), 403(b), or 457 account? Think twice about that because these loans are not only risky but injurious to your retirement planning.

A loan of this kind damages your retirement savings prospects. A 401(k), 403(b), or 457 should never be viewed like a savings or checking account. When you withdraw from a bank account, you pull out cash. When you take a loan from your workplace retirement plan, you sell shares of your investments to generate cash. You buy back investment shares as you repay the loan. (1)

In borrowing from a 401(k), 403(b), or 457, you siphon down invested retirement assets, leaving a smaller account balance that experiences a smaller degree of compounding. In repaying the loan, you will likely repurchase investment shares at higher prices than in the past – in other words, you will be buying high. None of this makes financial sense. (1)

Most plan providers charge an origination fee for a loan (it can be in the neighborhood of $100), and of course, they charge interest. While you will repay interest and the principal as you repay the loan, that interest still represents money that could have remained in the account and remained invested. (1,2)

As you strive to repay the loan amount, there may be a financial side effect. You may end up reducing or suspending your regular per-paycheck contributions to the plan. Some plans may even bar you from making plan contributions for several months after the loan is taken. (3,4)

Your take-home pay may be docked. Most loans from 401(k), 403(b), and 457 plans are repaid incrementally – the plan subtracts X dollars from your paycheck, month after month, until the amount borrowed is fully restored. (1)

If you leave your job, you will have to pay 100% of your 401(k) loan back. This applies if you quit; it applies if you are laid off or fired. Formerly, you had a maximum of 60 days to repay a workplace retirement plan loan. The Tax Cuts & Jobs Act of 2017 changed that for loans originated in 2018 and years forward. You now have until October of the year following the year you leave your job to repay the loan (the deadline is the due date of your federal taxes plus a 6-month extension, which usually means October 15). You also have a choice: you can either restore the funds to your workplace retirement plan or transfer them to either an IRA or a workplace retirement plan elsewhere. (2)

If you are younger than age 59½ and fail to pay the full amount of the loan back, the I.R.S. will characterize any amount not repaid as a premature distribution from a retirement plan – taxable income that is also subject to an early withdrawal penalty. (3)

Even if you have great job security, the loan will probably have to be repaid in full within five years. Most workplace retirement plans set such terms. If the terms are not met, then the unpaid balance becomes a taxable distribution with possible penalties (assuming you are younger than 59½. (1)

Would you like to be taxed twice? When you borrow from an employee retirement plan, you invite that prospect. You will be repaying your loan with after-tax dollars, and those dollars will be taxed again when you make a qualified withdrawal of them in the future (unless your plan offers you a Roth option). (3,4)

Why go into debt to pay off debt? If you borrow from your retirement plan, you will be assuming one debt to pay off another. It is better to go to a reputable lender for a personal loan; borrowing cash has fewer potential drawbacks.   

You should never confuse your retirement plan with a bank account. Some employees seem to do just that. Fidelity Investments says that 20.8% of its 401(k) plan participants have outstanding loans in 2018. In taking their loans, they are opening the door to the possibility of having less money saved when they retire. (4)

Why risk that? Look elsewhere for money in a crisis. Borrow from your employer-sponsored retirement plan only as a last resort.


Justin D. Rucci, CFP®
Wealth Advisor
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Justin is an Investment Advisor Representative of Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance, strategy, and results of your portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Nothing in this commentary is a solicitation to buy, or sell, any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. We may hold securities referenced in the blog and due to the static nature of the content, those securities held may change over time and trades may be contrary to outdated posts.

 

Citations
1 – gobankingrates.com/retirement/401k/borrowing-401k/ [10/7/17]
2 – forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2018/01/16/new-tax-law-liberalizes-401k-loan-repayment-rules/ [1/16/18]
3 – cbsnews.com/news/when-is-it-ok-to-withdraw-or-borrow-from-your-retirement-savings/ [1/31/17]
4 – cnbc.com/2018/06/26/the-lure-of-a-401k-loan-could-mask-its-risks.html [6/26/18]

Word on the Street – A Conversation with Marcia Clark

Word on the Street – A Conversation with Marcia Clark, MBA, CFA

I sat down with our Senior Research Analyst to discuss the US market, international markets, and how we are approaching both for investors.

For this Word on the Street, I sat down with Marcia Clark to discuss a recent report that stated leading economic indicators in the US are positive. Marcia and I discussed what this report means for investors and how it relates to our stance at Warren Street.

Enjoy.

Yesterday (October 18th), Blake shared a report that talked about long-term economic indicators looking good in the US. However, we have heard a lot from Blake on investing overseas in international and emerging markets. If the US looks so good, then why are we doing this?

M.C.: Even though indicators [in the US] are strong right now, we are still in an established economy, and it’s not possible for a huge economy like ours to grow as quickly as a smaller and more dynamic one. Smaller economies tend to grow faster than developed economies because they have to build out infrastructure to support new businesses. This infrastructure improves productivity which in turn drives economic growth. Since 2000, emerging economies have grown about twice as fast as developed economies.

How long will this period of US strength continue, and how long will we have to wait for emerging markets to have another boom?

M.C.: The US is currently experiencing one of the longest expansions in our history. While we’re grateful for the stable growth, we know this can’t go on forever. It’s extremely difficult to know when the end is coming or how bad it’s going to be, so what do we do? We hope for the best but prepare for the worst. To make an analogy – most of us don’t expect a house fire, but we still carry insurance. In the investment business, it’s wise to look over all markets to find the best opportunities and spread out the economic risk. 

When we spoke about the report that Blake shared, you said, “when the US gets sick, the world sneezes.” If the US is not sick at the moment, why does the rest of the world seem to be dragging this year?

M.C.: When we say the US isn’t sick, how are we measuring that? Most people look at the S&P 500 and say the US is doing great compared to global averages, but if we take out the huge technology companies such as Google, Amazon, and Netflix, the US market isn’t that much further ahead. Many other countries experienced a “Great Recession” fallout in 2008-2009 far worse than the US, leaving them behind the US on the economic recovery timeline, particularly in regards to unemployment. Add to that the continuing struggle of European countries to integrate thousands of refugees from wars and conflicts in the Middle East and you can see why Europe and its neighbors are having a tougher time than the US.

Some people say that emerging markets are not a great value right now. If that is true, then why are we continuing to add to our position with them?

M.C.  The US is largely insulated from many global challenges, but at the same time, the US is so well developed that there aren’t a ton of market-changing innovation opportunities here either. So, we look overseas. The first thing to understand about emerging market economies is that they are not a homogenous group. For example, you wouldn’t compare emerging economies in peripheral Europe to those in Africa or South America. When we look to add exposure in a diverse sector like EM, we investigate active asset managers with a track record of identifying the best risk-reward trade-off in that broad landscape.

So what you are saying is, when we talk about adding emerging market exposure, we are not getting all of the emerging market economies. What does Warren Street look at for their emerging market exposure?

M.C.: We aren’t investing directly in these countries, so we don’t have a country-by-country economic forecast. However, the fund managers we use do this full-time. Some even send members of their investment teams to these emerging countries to understand the political landscape, the sentiment of the population, and the vibrancy of the economy. Our job is to vet these managers thoroughly, check their track record across different economic cycles, and review their current country allocation against our thoughts on world conditions. From there, we then choose the best manager for the job.

Taking a step back to a previous question, what happens when the US does finally get sick? What happens to world economies in that landscape? Similar to your quote, I have heard “when the US gets sick, the world gets the flu.”

M.C.: It is true that the US impact on other countries is stronger than their impact on us, but the US economy is fairly insulated because we buy and sell so much within our own borders. In times when the US is struggling, other nations step up their trading with each other and muddle through until the US economy bounces back. As we talked about earlier, there are plenty of differences between the economic environment in the US and elsewhere – developed countries have done better than us plenty of times in the past. Remember that less developed countries are even less correlated with the US than developed nations. So when the US is sick, oftentimes the best place to look is smaller nations that are building their own economies in their own regions.

Taking a look back at the US economy, if the outlook is good, then why don’t we add more to the US stock market?

M.C.: Our job at Warren Street Wealth is to keep you safe and help you grow your assets. Even the most successful investors don’t have a crystal ball. They don’t get it right every time, so diversification is the only “free lunch” – we would be foolish not to take advantage of it.

The US is only about 40% of the world market. If we only invested in the US, we are closing ourselves off to an additional 60% of opportunities available to us. That just seems silly. Good stuff is happening all around the world, so let’s reach out and find it.

What do you say to the investor that only believes in the US stock market?

M.C.: For investors with a very long time horizon without the need to draw on their funds unexpectedly, the US stock market might be your only investment. But most of us don’t have the luxury of leaving our money in the market for 40 years and weathering all the storms that come our way. As fiduciaries of your assets, we have an obligation to protect your assets and help you achieve your long-term financial goals. We may not capture 100% of the upside, but we are confident that we are going to keep you from experiencing 100% of the bad times.

Anything else you would like to share?

M.C.: The world is a very big place, and sometimes we don’t know what exciting things are happening on the opposite side of the planet. Being open-minded about where you send your capital could unlock amazing things in other places.

Lastly, there is a fantastic set of information on the global economy that can be found at the IMF’s website: Real GDP by Country


WSWA Team Compressed-19-squareJoe Occhipinti
Marketing Manager
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. 

 

Word on the Street – October 1st-5th

Word on the Street – October 1st – 5th

A brief conversation with our CIO, Blake Street, CFA, CFP®, on what’s going on in the world today.

We constantly want to deliver more content to our clients and followers on current events, and how we are viewing them from an investment or planning angle.

“Word on the Street” will be a series where I sit down with our Chief Investment Officer, Blake Street, CFA, CFP® to pick his brain on what’s going on in the news and what that means for you.

Here is the conversation I had with him on Friday, October 5th discussing the last couple weeks. Enjoy.

Alright, Blake. Let’s start with the new US trade deal that people are calling NAFTA 2.0. What’s your take and how will this new deal impact investors?

B.S.: NAFTA 2.0 or more accurately titled the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) in my opinion is largely underwhelming. At its core, it should bring some manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. from Mexico, but I also expect this to result in increased cost to the end consumer. Considering the United States spends $500 billion a year on autos, cost increases will be noticed.

The reason I’m underwhelmed is the negotiation process wasn’t without collateral damage in trade relations and the ultimate outcomes are incremental at best. Essentially, Canada and Mexico agreed that 75% of parts for cars built for export would be made in North America. This is up from the original agreement of 62.5% under NAFTA. They also agreed that 45% of cars would be built by workers making more than $16 an hour by 2023, this was ultimately targeted at Mexico and should result in rising costs for domestic and imported production. Mexico also agreed to improve labor conditions but enforcement remains vague.

Canada agreed to increase import quotas for U.S. dairy into their market. I’ve seen estimates that this could result in $50-$100 million in activity for American dairy farmers. Not sure this moves the needle, especially in the face of what appears to be a $100-$400 million decline in Chinese imports of American dairy in the coming years.

Additionally, USMCA hasn’t officially been ratified yet. It has only been approved for a vote. If the midterm elections put more Democrats in Congress, then they have the opportunity to deny President Trump the victory of its passing.

We are entering the last quarter of the first year operating under tax reform. Do you think that it has been good or bad for investors?

B.S.: It’s hard to argue that is has been anything but great for investors. Three straight quarters of near-record earnings and US markets are oscillating around record highs. Taxpayers have yet to officially file under the new tax reform, so they have yet to even feel the full benefits.

It will be interesting to see how equity markets react as we get into 2019. The initial thrust of the tax cuts on earnings will wane over time, and it will be interesting to compare year-over-year numbers to post-tax cut figures.

Is there anything people might be surprised about as they go to file?

B.S.: The biggest surprise to most will be the balance between an enhanced and expanded standard deduction, lower marginal rates, and aggressively capped state and local tax deductions. In addition, I expect the 20% pass-through deduction to surprise a lot of folks who don’t know how it works, in both a good and bad way.

How do you feel about Elon Musk and the SEC?

B.S.: He got off way too easy. He should have been stripped of his role as director and CEO in addition to losing his chairman position. His $20 million personal and $20 million corporate fines are a drop in the bucket compared to the market cap of Tesla and the potential money that was lost or made based on his manipulative behavior.

Leaking a takeover bid or the idea of taking a company private should force a stock price to the assumed target price. Any rational CEO would know this ahead of time. He coerced unknowing investors to buy into Tesla based on this information and blew out short positions which seemed to be his intention.

The amount of talk around marijuana stock is at a high again. How should investors approach it, if at all?

B.S.: Personally, it is not a sector I am interested in investing in for myself or for clients as it is still illegal at the federal level. Recent buzz escalated when Tilray, a Canadian pot producer, got approval for a clinical trial to use marijuana in pill form to treat seizures. They had about 10 million in sales last year, and the market cap soared to 15 billion, which is, frankly, absurd. A good piece of that market cap has been given back.

Should it ever become legal at the federal level, I expect a massive influx from titans of industry in alcohol, tobacco, and pharmaceuticals. Production will drive down cost quickly. If we were to invest, we would focus more on the picks and shovels, distribution, and manufacturing perspective. A diversified approach will likely pay as picking the winners of such a rapidly developing space may prove to be very difficult.

What do you find most interesting in the market right now?

B.S.: Emerging Markets.

Interesting response…why?

B.S.: They started the year at low relative valuations even after a monster 2017. As of the end of September, they were at a 20% drawdown from the year’s high. I continue to believe they will be the best place to be over the next 5-10 years for fundamental and demographic reasons. Dollar strength has caused a lot of pain in emerging market currency denominated holdings and the sell-off in emerging market stocks has reached seemingly oversold levels. The pain might not be fully over yet, so a disciplined approach to buying into recent weakness is needed.

The 10 year Treasury closed Friday at 3.23. What are some of your thoughts as rates rise?

B.S.: I believe we’re now 8 Fed Rate hikes in. The consensus seems to be that we are due for 3-4 more. It seems that the market is not fighting back and pushing yields down. It will continue to pay to be nimble, keep durations short, and invest in fixed income asset classes with lower rate sensitivity and look for opportunities abroad.

Do you see any opportunities or concerns with rates increasing?

B.S.: Rising rates have resulted in a strong dollar which puts pressure on emerging market debt causing yield spreads to widen. This has created possible valuation pockets within emerging market debt, and this opportunity should not be entered into lightly.

Concerns: If inflation and yields continue to rise, investors who are accustomed to long-term, stable outcomes will be surprised to find out how volatile bonds can be in a rising rate environment. Going back to 1976, bonds on average have only had 3 negative years. Count 2018 as the fourth. Would a fifth materially change investors perspectives on what bonds mean to portfolios? Or will investors continue to understand bonds importance in a well-diversified portfolio? This creates opportunity and concern.

Any closing remarks?

B.S.: Loss aversion is one of the most basic human tendencies I can think of. In a year where virtually every asset class other than US stocks is in the red, I can see a lot of potentially bad behavior starting to fester. It is important now more than ever that you don’t chase the hot dot. Stick to your plan, stick to your process, even if that means deferring to your advisor.


WSWA Team Compressed-19-squareJoe Occhipinti
Marketing Manager
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. 

 

Rate Watch 2018 – August

Rate Watch 2018 – August – SCE Grandfathered Pension

August’s rate is typically used for Edison’s official grandfathered pension plan interest rate. Where did it land, and how does that impact your pension?

Welcome to another edition of Rate Watch as we track the interest rate that is vital to the grandfathered pension at Southern California Edison.

The most important month of the year for grandfathered pension holders is upon us. August is typically used to set the grandfathered pension interest rate for the following plan year. Let’s take a look at where the rate it at:

These are not current plan rates for Southern California Edison’s pension plan, they are minimum present value third segment rates from the IRS. Official plan rates are derived from the minimum present value segment rates table (https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/minimum-present-value-segment-rates). Plan rate changes are made by Southern California Edison on an annual basis.

August came in at 4.46 and 0.10 higher than the current plan rate. Very simply, this means that your lump sum payout value will be higher with the 2018 plan value as opposed to the 2019 value.

Again, simply put, if you are grandfathered and thinking about retiring soon, then it might be in your best interest to retire and take the 2018 value to get a higher lump sum payout.

Since the difference in potential rates is small, the change in value is probably not great enough to heavily influence a decision to retire now or continue working, but it is something that should be capitalized on if retirement is on the horizon.

If you are unsure on how to request your paperwork or the timing to make sure you receive the 2018 pension rate, then contact us for a free retirement consultation, and we can show you how you can retire with confidence.


WSWA Team Compressed-19-squareJoe Occhipinti
Wealth Advisor
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

 


Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. 
Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. 

 

The IRA and the 401(k)

The IRA and the 401(k)

Comparing their features, merits, and demerits. 

How do you save for retirement? Two options probably come to mind right away: the IRA and the 401(k). Both offer you relatively easy ways to build a retirement fund. Here is a look at the features, merits, and demerits of each account, starting with what they have in common.

Taxes are deferred on money held within IRAs and 401(k)s. That opens the door for tax-free compounding of those invested dollars – a major plus for any retirement saver. (1)

IRAs and 401(k)s also offer you another big tax break. It varies depending on whether the account is traditional or Roth in nature. When you have a traditional IRA or 401(k), your account contributions are tax deductible, but when you eventually withdraw the money for retirement, it will be taxed as regular income. When you have a Roth IRA or 401(k), your account contributions are not tax deductible, but if you follow Internal Revenue Service rules, your withdrawals from the account in retirement are tax-free. (1)  

Generally, the I.R.S. penalizes withdrawals from these accounts before age 59½. Distributions from traditional IRAs and 401(k)s prior to that age usually trigger a 10% federal tax penalty, on top of income tax on the withdrawn amount. Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k)s allow you to withdraw a sum equivalent to your account contributions at any time without taxes or penalties, but early distributions of the account earnings are taxable and may also be hit with the 10% early withdrawal penalty.1  

You must make annual withdrawals from 401(k)s and traditional IRAs after age 70½. Annual withdrawals from a Roth IRA are not required during the owner’s lifetime, only after his or her death. Even Roth 401(k)s require annual withdrawals after age 70½. (2)

Now, on to the major differences.

Annual contribution limits for IRAs and 401(k)s differ greatly. You may direct up to $18,500 into a 401(k) in 2018; $24,500, if you are 50 or older. In contrast, the maximum 2018 IRA contribution is $5,500; $6,500, if you are 50 or older. (1)

Your employer may provide you with matching 401(k) contributions. This is free money coming your way. The match is usually partial, but certainly, nothing to disregard – it might be a portion of the dollars you contribute up to 6% of your annual salary, for example. Do these employer contributions count toward your personal yearly 401(k) contribution limit? No, they do not. Contribute enough to get the match if your company offers you one. (1)

An IRA permits a wide variety of investments, in contrast to a 401(k). The typical 401(k) offers only about 20 investment options, and you have no control over what investments are chosen. With an IRA, you have a vast range of potential investment choices. (1,3)

You can contribute to a 401(k) no matter how much you earn. Your income may limit your eligibility to contribute to a Roth IRA; at certain income levels, you may be prohibited from contributing the full amount, or any amount. (1)

If you leave your job, you cannot take your 401(k) with you. It stays in the hands of the retirement plan administrator that your employer has selected. The money remains invested, but you may have less control over it than you once did. You do have choices: you can withdraw the money from the old 401(k), which will likely result in a tax penalty; you can leave it where it is; you can possibly transfer it to a 401(k) at your new job; or, you can roll it over into an IRA. (4,5)

You cannot control 401(k) fees. Some 401(k)s have high annual account and administrative fees that effectively eat into their annual investment returns. The plan administrator sets such costs. The annual fees on your IRA may not nearly be so expensive. (1)

All this said, contributing to an IRA or a 401(k) is an excellent idea. In fact, many pre-retirees contribute to both 401(k)s and IRAs at once. Today, investing in these accounts seems all but necessary to pursue retirement savings and income goals.


J Rucci

Justin D. Rucci, CFP®
Wealth Advisor
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

 

 

Justin D. Rucci is an Investment Advisor Representative of Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented.

This material was prepared by Marketing Pro, Inc. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance, strategy, and results of your portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Nothing in this commentary is a solicitation to buy, or sell, any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. We may hold securities referenced in the blog and due to the static nature of the content, those securities held may change over time and trades may be contrary to outdated posts.

Citations.

1 – nerdwallet.com/article/ira-vs-401k-retirement-accounts [4/30/18]
2 – irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-regarding-required-minimum-distributions [5/30/18]
3 – tinyurl.com/y77cjtfz [10/31/17]
4 – finance.zacks.com/tax-penalty-moving-401k-ira-3585.html [9/6/18]
5 – cnbc.com/2018/04/26/what-to-do-with-your-401k-when-you-change-jobs.html [4/26/18]

Rate Watch 2018 – July

Rate Watch 2018 – July

We are only a couple month away from the August segment rate announcement. Where could rates land for SCE grandfathered pension holders as we head into the fall?

Welcome to another edition of Rate Watch as we track the interest rate that is vital to the grandfathered pension at Southern California Edison. If you’ve missed any of our previous articles, you can find them here:

Rate Watch 2018 – May & June
Rate Watch 2018 – April
Rate Watch 2018 – March
Rate Watch 2018 – February

June’s posting puts us 2 months away from August’s rate which is typically used by Southern California Edison for the grandfathered pension plan. If you are eyeballing retirement soon, then it is essential to understand where the rate is now and where it could be going. Here is the latest:

chart

*These are not current plan rates for Southern California Edison’s pension plan, they are minimum present value third segment rates from the IRS. Official plan rates are derived from the minimum present value segment rates table (https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/minimum-present-value-segment-rates) . Plan rate changes are made by Southern California Edison on an annual basis.

July at 4.60 puts us nearly 25 points above the current plan rate and would drive your current lump sum value down if you took your pension in 2019.

Nominally, nothing has really changed month-to-month, but there has also not been much going on that would drastically press the rates higher over the time period. The most important thing to note would be inflation slowly on the rise as we continue to be in an environment of historically low rates.

For those in the grandfathered pension plan and who believe they are on the brink of retirement, it is more important now than ever to begin putting a plan in place and seeing what your retirement looks like. Knowing how your assets weigh against your liabilities, how much you might need every year in retirement, and if you have the assets to accomplish everything you want are important answers to have before you have your final day of work.

If the official rate was announced today, then it may make sense to take your pension in the current plan year due to the fact that as rates increase, lump sum values decrease.

If you are just unsure of what your retirement looks like, then feel free to contact us for a free phone call or meeting. We have helped 100’s of SCE employees retire and numerous grandfathered pension holders weigh their options out to give themselves the best possible outcome and start to retirement.


WSWA Team Compressed-19-squareJoe Occhipinti
Wealth Advisor
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

 


Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. Information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. 
Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. 

 

Periodic Table of Investing

Periodic Table of Investing

Dust off your memories of high school chemistry and think of your investment returns and your investment risks as two separate and distinct members of the periodic table. Certain elements (in this case, securities) are prone to interact when mixed, while others may remain neutral. Each element (security) will always have its own separate and unique profile and characteristics.

Starting with carbon, one of the world’s most important elements, I’d equate carbon to U.S. stocks. Regardless of age, every investor we work with has likely benefited from or utilized this element and will continue to do so in some capacity going forward.

Argon, the world’s least reactive element, tends to be more akin to Treasury Bonds or cash, not responding negatively to volatility much, if at all.

I’m far from the first person to think of investments in this way, in-fact there is deep history in what many refer to as the “Callan Chart” or “Periodic Table of Returns”. Below you’ll see a large majority of the world’s major asset classes and their returns relative to zero:

Callan from Zero

https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/

The most striking thing from this chart is that after a disastrous 2008 for everything except U.S. Bonds (argon), the only asset class that is yet to have a negative year is Large Cap ($10B+) U.S. Stocks (starred).

Winners and Losers

SPY vs ACWI vs EEM

Charlie Bilello via Twitter

This freedom from negative returns and the compounding of large year-to-year gains has led to outsized outperformance from Large U.S. stocks. Over the last 10 years, Large U.S. stocks have produced cumulative total returns of 158%. Developed Foreign Country stocks have produced 19% and Emerging Markets only 16%.

Two takeaways from this are: the power of compounding positive returns but even more important is the force of losses and the time it takes to make them up. In addition, one recurring theme of study and practice in investing is that asset prices move in cycles. While U.S. outperformance seems like an unbreakable cycle, it’s just a matter of time.

Trading Places

Take a look below at how U.S. and international stock market leadership has traded off over time. Most recently international stocks outperformed from 2003-2009, and the U.S. finds itself on its longest stretch of outperformance since 1979.
Performance Leadership

We have been incrementally positioning our clients’ portfolios for this eventual inflection since 2015. Last year we looked right, this year thus far we look wrong. Personally, I just consider myself patient as I wait for a multi-year trend to unfold.

Whether it’s high prices and valuation concerns or much of the low hanging fruit in our U.S. economic recovery is out of the way, we have a firm conviction in our posture of reducing U.S. stock market exposure. Having said that, we do not have a proverbial crystal ball, therefore we diversify and avoid throwing all of our eggs into the international basket.

Don’t Give up on Bonds

In addition, we haven’t given up on bonds, which have been tough to own this year, with U.S. Bonds down on average -1.62%.

 

Callan Periodic Table

https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/

 

It’s important to keep in mind how bonds have performed during down years for the stock market, something that is potentially in the cards this far into an extended bull market.

bonds vs stocks

One does not need to own the entire U.S. bond market via an index fund or otherwise. We currently prefer shorter term bonds, typically corporate bonds, and even in some cases inflation protected bonds. With a recent uptick in short-term government bonds, they aren’t nearly as painful to hold as in years past when yields hovered near zero. The 2-year treasury currently yields 2.829%, at the time of writing this article.

Late Cycle Playbook

With a backdrop of rising inflation globally, rising rates here in the U.S., accommodative monetary policy globally, and stretched valuations in U.S. equity markets, we continue to prefer assets that tend to outperform late in the economic cycle and when the factors above are present.

These assets include:

  • International and Emerging Market stocks
  • Industrials, Metals, Energy
  • Shorter Term Bonds, TIPS

Signing Off

While we realize this year has been far less exciting than the last, we remain firm in our convictions on how we want to combine elements from the “Periodic Table of Returns” moving forward. We stand at the ready to buy into recent market weakness and will not capitulate to chasing what has done well. We appreciate your continued trust and patience while we navigate through what’s been an unstable first half of 2018. Don’t hesitate to contact our office should you have any questions or concerns about how we are approaching your investments.

Respectfully yours,

Blake Street, CFA, CFP®


Blake StreetBlake Street, CFA, CFP®
Chief Investment Officer
Founding Partner
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Blake Street is an Investment Advisor Representative of Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. Information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented.

Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance, strategy, and results of your portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Nothing in this commentary is a solicitation to buy, or sell, any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. We may hold securities referenced in the blog and due to the static nature of content, those securities held may change over time and trades may be contrary to outdated posts.

Rate Watch 2018 – May & June

Rate Watch 2018 – May & June

Heading into the summer, what do segment rates look like and how could that impact grandfathered pension holders?

Welcome to another edition of Rate Watch as we track the interest rate that is vital to the grandfathered pension at Southern California Edison. If you’ve missed any of our previous articles, you can find them here:

Rate Watch 2018 – April
Rate Watch 2018 – March
Rate Watch 2018 – February
Rate Watch 2018 – January

The IRS posting in June will give us the segment rate for May 2018, which puts us at only a couple readings away from the official rate announcement for the grandfathered pension in the fall. Let’s take a look at where rates are at currently:

*These are not current plan rates for Southern California Edison’s pension plan, they are minimum present value third segment rates from the IRS. Official plan rates are derived from the minimum present value segment rates table (https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/minimum-present-value-segment-rates) . Plan rate changes are made by Southern California Edison on an annual basis.

*These are not current plan rates for Southern California Edison’s pension plan, they are minimum present value third segment rates from the IRS. Official plan rates are derived from the minimum present value segment rates table (https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/minimum-present-value-segment-rates) . Plan rate changes are made by Southern California Edison on an annual basis.

You may have noticed that we skipped April , but the reading from March to April was actually flat at 4.43. At that time, we still consider it early to make a decision based off of rates, but we have seen a larger move from April to May.

May’s number of 4.58, 3 months away from the official SCE rate announcement, begins to move the conversation towards retirement in the current plan year. A nearly quarter percent increase paints a much stronger picture for grandfathered pension holders to retire in the current year versus 2019 granted that they are retirement ready.

Interest rate increases were driven by a strong 10 year Treasury rate and inflation slowly on the rise. Coupled with the Fed continuing to monitor the economy, small increases in the rate across the summer are plausible as we head towards the fall.

As always, if the official plan rate for Southern California Edison grandfathered pension holders increases, then the value of their pensions decrease. It is imperative to weigh the current year plan value versus the following year plan value when it comes to your retirement. While your pension value shouldn’t be the only variable when it comes to deciding if you’re ready for retirement, it is one that should be taken into account and can make a difference.

Are you worried about your retirement plans or concerned with how to handle your pension or 401(k)? Maybe you’re just unsure on how the transition to retirement works. We’ve helped countless Southern California Edison employees plan for retirement, and we can help you plan too.

Contact us for a free retirement planning session or portfolio analysis. Our free session over the phone or at our office gives you the opportunity to get your retirement questions answered and learn how we help our clients reach their retirement goals.


WSWA Team Compressed-19-squareJoe Occhipinti
Wealth Advisor
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

 


Joe Occhipinti is an Investment Advisor Representative of Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. Information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented.

Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance, strategy, and results of your portfolio.Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Nothing in this commentary is a solicitation to buy, or sell, any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. We may hold securities referenced in the blog and due to the static nature of content, those securities held may change over time and trades may be contrary to outdated posts.

 

72(t) Distributions

72t Distributions

Sometimes you can take penalty-free early withdrawals from retirement accounts.

Do you need to access your retirement money early? Maybe you just want to retire before you turn 60 and plan a lifelong income stream from the money you have saved and invested. You may be surprised to know that the Internal Revenue Service allows you a way to do this, provided you do it carefully.

Usually, anyone who takes money out of an IRA or a retirement plan prior to age 59½ faces a 10% early withdrawal penalty on the distribution. That isn’t always the case, however. You may be able to avoid the requisite penalty by taking distributions compliant with Internal Revenue Code Section 72(t)(2).(1)

While any money you take out of the plan will amount to taxable income, you can position yourself to avoid that extra 10% tax hit by breaking that early IRA or retirement plan distribution down into a series of substantially equal periodic payments (SEPPs). These periodic withdrawals must occur at least once a year, and they must continue for at least 5 full years or until you turn 59½, whichever period is longer. (Optionally, you can make SEPP withdrawals every six months or on a quarterly or monthly basis.)(1,2)

How do you figure out the SEPPs? They must be calculated before you can take them, using one of three I.R.S. methods. Some people assume they can just divide the balance of their IRA or 401(k) by five and withdraw that amount per year – but that is not the way to determine them.(2)

You should calculate your potential SEPPs by each of the three methods. When the math is complete, you can schedule your SEPPs in the way that makes the most sense for you.

The Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) method calculates the SEPP amount by dividing your IRA or retirement plan balance at the end of the previous year by the life expectancy factor from the I.R.S. Single Life Expectancy Table, the Joint Life and Last Survivor Expectancy Table, or the Uniform Lifetime Table.(1,2)

The Fixed Amortization method amortizes your retirement account balance into SEPPs based on your life expectancy. A variation on this, the Fixed Annuitization method, calculates SEPPs using your current age and the mortality table in Appendix B of Rev. Ruling 2002-62.(1,2)

If you use the Fixed Amortization or Fixed Annuitization method, you are also required to use a reasonable interest rate in calculating the withdrawals. That interest rate can’t exceed more than 120% of the federal midterm rate announced periodically by the I.R.S.(1,3)

A lot to absorb? It certainly is. The financial professional you know can help you figure all this out, and online calculators also come in handy (Bankrate.com has a good one).

There are some common blunders that can wreck a 72(t) distribution. You should be aware of them if you want to schedule SEPPs.

If you are taking SEPPs from a qualified workplace retirement plan instead of an IRA, you must separate from service (that is, quit working for that employer) before you take them. If you are 51 when you quit and start taking SEPPs from your retirement plan, and you change your mind at 53 and decide you want to keep working, you still have this retirement account that you are obligated to draw down through age 56 – not a good scenario.(1)  

Once you start taking SEPPs, you are locked into them for five consecutive years or until you reach age 59½. If you break that commitment or deviate from the SEPP schedule or calculation method you have set, a 10% early withdrawal penalty could apply to all the SEPPs you have already made, with interest. (Some individuals can claim exceptions to this penalty under I.R.S. rules.)(3,4)

The I.R.S. does permit you to make a one-time change to your distribution method without penalty: if you start with the Fixed Amortization or Fixed Annuitization method, you can opt to switch to the RMD method. You can’t switch out of the RMD method to either the Fixed Amortization or Fixed Annuitization method, however.(2)

If you want or need to take 72(t) distributions, ask for help. A financial professional can help you plan to do it right.


J Rucci

Justin D. Rucci, CFP®
Wealth Advisor
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

 

 

Justin D. Rucci is an Investment Advisor Representative of Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. Information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented.

This material was prepared by Marketing Pro, Inc. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance, strategy, and results of your portfolio.Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Nothing in this commentary is a solicitation to buy, or sell, any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. We may hold securities referenced in the blog and due to the static nature of content, those securities held may change over time and trades may be contrary to outdated posts.

Citations.

1 – irs.gov/Retirement-Plans/Retirement-Plans-FAQs-regarding-Substantially-Equal-Periodic-Payments [12/19/17]
2 – fool.com/retirement/2017/05/19/use-your-retirement-savings-early-with-substantial.aspx [5/19/17]
3 – thebalance.com/how-to-use-72-t-payments-for-early-ira-withdrawals-2388257 [9/20/17]
4 – military.com/money/retirement/second-retirement/early-retirement-options.html [5/7/18]