Word on the Street – November 27th – December 1st

Word on the Street – November 27th – December 1st

Another brief conversation with our CIO on current events in the investing world…

A sit down with Blake Street, CFA, CFP® to discuss some current events in the news, their impact on investors, and his sentiment on some issues. Enjoy…

Trade War talks are still present as people were worried about the G20 meeting. Since our last conversation, where do you think we are now with the trade talks?

Blake Street: Specific to the US and China, much remains to be seen. At this point, we are still on the light end of threatened tariffs with escalation due here soon without further intervention. In recent days, the President has new motivation to come up with some type of remedy to re-instill confidence in the markets. One way would be to calm US & China trade tensions and get global growth back on track. It remains to be seen if this is the case. As we have seen in the recent past, sometimes these summits result in a lot of talk and no action. The G20 Summit resulted in a “truce” or “ceasefire” of sorts between the US & China, however, very little clarity has been provided and an arrest of the CFO of Huawei, China’s largest tech company, this morning (12/6/2018) could further inflame tensions.

General Motors seems to have suffered greatly due to the tariffs, among other things. Do you think that this is going to be a reoccurring theme for some US companies, or is this just a casualty of war?

B.S.: I don’t know if you can say they suffered greatly, but they are doing what every company should do which is look out for their long-term interests. They have spotted changes in their own market landscape that require a change in where they produce their products and what products they produce for consumers. Tariffs have certainly hurt their bottom line by increasing certain input costs and while this seems obvious in hindsight, a lot of industries from automotive manufacturers to agricultural producers have been harmed by trade tensions and tariffs.

Oil prices are down again as well. How with this impact both consumers at the pump and investors? What do you think the long-term trend will be?

B.S.: Consumers during the holiday season will benefit by keeping more money in their pocket. However, falling crude prices can also come with other adverse impacts such as slowing economies and weak investment markets. Historically, 30% declines in crude oil prices have correlated strongly to short-term bear markets, not always a recession.

Personally, I think the most recent selloff is overdone, and we will return to higher oil prices in the not too distant future. Case and point, I don’t think that demand has dropped off in a meaningful way, and we have not seen the type of supply buildups reminiscent of 2015, the last time we saw oil prices collapse.

On Wednesday (11/28/2018), Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, came out and said that the Fed Funds rate is approaching neutral. This news was a stark contrast to his October statements. What does this mean for the market as we approach 2019?

B.S.: Investors and markets alike were appeased to hear that we may be due for fewer rate hikes than initially priced in. Foreign markets have also been dealing with adverse effects of a strengthening US dollar and rising US interest rates. Markets overseas breathed a sigh of relief to hear of a potentially more accommodative Fed policy.

In my mind, an even bigger question mark is how the Fed continues to handle the unwinding of its balance sheet in the coming years. I’m also slightly concerned with President Trump’s recent politicization of the Fed. At the end of the day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a job to do, and it is not solely to provide octane to investment markets at the President’s request. I expect the Fed to remain focused on their traditional mandate and to shirk Presidential pressures.


 

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. 

 

Social Security Gets Its Biggest Boost in Years

Social Security Gets Its Biggest Boost in Years

Seniors will see their retirement benefits increase by an average of 2.8% in 2019.

Social Security will soon give seniors their largest “raise” since 2012. In view of inflation, the Social Security Administration has authorized a 2.8% increase for retirement benefits in 2019. (1)

This is especially welcome, as annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAs, have been irregular in recent years. There were no COLAs at all in 2010, 2011, and 2016, and the 2017 COLA was 0.3%. This marks the second year in a row in which the COLA has been at least 2%. (2)

Not every retiree will see their benefits grow 2.8% next year. While affluent seniors will probably get the full COLA, more than 5 million comparatively poorer seniors may not, according to the Senior Citizens League, a lobbying group active in the nation’s capital. (1)

Why, exactly? It has to do with Medicare’s “hold harmless” provision, which held down the cost of Part B premiums for select Medicare recipients earlier in this decade. That rule prevents Medicare Part B premiums, which are automatically deducted from monthly Social Security benefits, from increasing more than a Social Security COLA in a given year. (Without this provision in place, some retirees might see their Social Security benefits effectively shrink from one year to the next.) (1)

After years of Part B premium inflation being held in check, the “hold harmless” provision is likely fading for the above-mentioned 5+ million Social Security recipients. They may not see much of the 2019 COLA at all. (1)

Even so, the average Social Security beneficiary will see a difference. The increase will take the average individual monthly Social Security payment from $1,422 to $1,461, meaning $468 more in retirement benefits for the year. An average couple receiving Social Security is projected to receive $2,448 per month, which will give them $804 more for 2019 than they would get without the COLA. How about a widower living alone? The average monthly benefit is set to rise $38 per month to $1,386, which implies an improvement of $456 in total benefits for 2019. (1)

Lastly, it should be noted that some disabled workers also receive Social Security benefits. Payments to their households will also grow larger next year. Right now, the average disabled worker enrolled in Social Security gets $1,200 per month in benefits. That will rise to $1,234 per month in 2019. The increase for the year will be $408. (1)


Justin D. Rucci, CFP®
Wealth Advisor
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Justin is an Investment Advisor Representative of Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance, strategy, and results of your portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Nothing in this commentary is a solicitation to buy, or sell, any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. We may hold securities referenced in the blog and due to the static nature of the content, those securities held may change over time and trades may be contrary to outdated posts.

 

Citations
1 – fool.com/retirement/2018/10/26/heres-what-the-average-social-security-beneficiary.aspx [10/26/18]
2 – tinyurl.com/y9spspqe [8/31/18]

Market Commentary – October 2018

Market Commentary – October 2018

Another wicked October!

First, we had the Panic of 1907, then Black Tuesday in 1929 (and Thursday and Monday), and Black Monday in October 1987, but October 2018 was indeed a month for the record books. With a negative return of -6.94%, it was the third worst October since 1987, and the 19th worst month in over 30 years. (For the curious among you, October 1987 the S&P 500 lost -21.76%, the worst single month decline since January 1987. The second worst October was 2008 at -16.94%.)

Why does the market hate October?! (or is it the other way around?)

Source: https://ycharts.com and https://finance.yahoo.com. Author’s calculations

Some of the worst days in the stock market actually happened in September: the 9/11 attacks and 2008 financial meltdown, for example. More often than not October has been a transition month, representing a buying opportunity for long-term investors able to endure some turbulence in exchange for future profits.

But more on that later…

Here’s the question for this past October: If the economic data was strong, why was the stock market so bad?

  • Wage growth came in at $27.30 up from $26.47 in October 2017, an annual growth rate of 3.1%, the highest in 9 years
  • Unemployment is hovering at 3.7%
  • Inflation remains low, falling from a recent high of 2.8% in July to 2.3% in September

What’s not to like?

Market commentators have plenty of possible answers for why global stock markets dropped off a cliff in October: escalating talk of trade wars, possibility that central banks will increase interest rates too high and stall the global economic recovery, uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections, high stock valuations, political disruptions in Europe, and others.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com

While all these are legitimate concerns, none of them were new to October. Why did investors react so strongly?

To better understand the U.S. market landscape, let’s take a minute to review where we’ve been so we have more perspective on where we might be going.

Recent Tailwinds

  • Strong U.S. economy and improving economies worldwide
  • Tax cuts and strong corporate profits
  • Low interest rates

Possible Headwinds

  • Global trade wars and a slowing Chinese economy
  • Democratic House of Representatives may push back business-friendly legislation
  • Ballooning government debt

So yes, there are things to worry about, but on balance, the worries don’t seem to warrant the precipitous drop in stock prices. Our best guess why October was so painful? The cause most likely lies with investor behavior, not fundamentals…

 

No matter what the reason for October’s fall, what really matters are the decisions we make now that the market has stabilized. Is it time to sell before the next shoe falls? Or buy and ride the rebound…assuming there is a rebound?

Each investor has to decide for themselves how much risk they can handle in pursuit of returns, but at Warren Street Wealth we’re holding on tight and buying into the weakness.

As outlined in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal¹:

  • U.S. equities are trading at the lowest P/E ratio of the year and corporate earnings are solid
    • S&P 500 is trading at 16 times forward earnings, near the long-term average
    • Risk premium is 4.6%, indicating 1.4% higher expected returns than the long-term average
    • Given the strong economy, the equity risk/reward tradeoff is fair
  • International markets look cheap relative to the U.S.
    • Despite current political challenges, economic foundations are stable and growing across much of the globe
    • European stocks are trading at 12 times forward earnings, significantly lower than the long-term average of 16 times
    • Emerging Market equities are trading at 11 times future earnings, compared to the long-term average of 13 times

All that being said, nobody likes to see negative numbers, investment professionals least of all.

As one of our clients told me the other day, “No matter the explanation, down is bad. The only thing that helps is up.” Our job at Warren Street Wealth Advisors is to honestly evaluate our investment decisions, make course corrections when needed, and hold the line otherwise. It’s been a rough market in the U.S. and even worse internationally, but the value is clearly there. We’re staying the course and watching for opportunities to buy into markets that have been beaten down unnecessarily. We don’t know how long it will take for these cheaper sectors to recover, but we want to be there when it happens. We hope you’ll be there with us.

Quiz Question:

Referring to the average monthly returns in the table, if you invested $1,000 in the S&P 500 when the market opened in January and earned the average monthly return compounded monthly, you would end the year with $1,090 or a 9% return.

Formula: $1,000 * (1 + .83%) * (1 + .38%) * … * (1 + 1.86%)

If you had an additional $1,000 to invest and knew what the future monthly returns would be, when should you buy more stocks to maximize your dollar-weighted return?

Rule of thumb: Buy low, Sell high

A. March and April   B. May and July  C. August and September  D. December

 


Marcia Clark, MBA, CFA
Senior Research Analyst
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. 

¹ https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-market-bulls-re-emerge-after-bruising-selloff-1541768401

Taking a Loan from Your Retirement Plan = Bad Idea

Taking a Loan from Your Retirement Plan = Bad Idea

Why you should refrain from making this move.

Thinking about borrowing money from your 401(k), 403(b), or 457 account? Think twice about that because these loans are not only risky but injurious to your retirement planning.

A loan of this kind damages your retirement savings prospects. A 401(k), 403(b), or 457 should never be viewed like a savings or checking account. When you withdraw from a bank account, you pull out cash. When you take a loan from your workplace retirement plan, you sell shares of your investments to generate cash. You buy back investment shares as you repay the loan. (1)

In borrowing from a 401(k), 403(b), or 457, you siphon down invested retirement assets, leaving a smaller account balance that experiences a smaller degree of compounding. In repaying the loan, you will likely repurchase investment shares at higher prices than in the past – in other words, you will be buying high. None of this makes financial sense. (1)

Most plan providers charge an origination fee for a loan (it can be in the neighborhood of $100), and of course, they charge interest. While you will repay interest and the principal as you repay the loan, that interest still represents money that could have remained in the account and remained invested. (1,2)

As you strive to repay the loan amount, there may be a financial side effect. You may end up reducing or suspending your regular per-paycheck contributions to the plan. Some plans may even bar you from making plan contributions for several months after the loan is taken. (3,4)

Your take-home pay may be docked. Most loans from 401(k), 403(b), and 457 plans are repaid incrementally – the plan subtracts X dollars from your paycheck, month after month, until the amount borrowed is fully restored. (1)

If you leave your job, you will have to pay 100% of your 401(k) loan back. This applies if you quit; it applies if you are laid off or fired. Formerly, you had a maximum of 60 days to repay a workplace retirement plan loan. The Tax Cuts & Jobs Act of 2017 changed that for loans originated in 2018 and years forward. You now have until October of the year following the year you leave your job to repay the loan (the deadline is the due date of your federal taxes plus a 6-month extension, which usually means October 15). You also have a choice: you can either restore the funds to your workplace retirement plan or transfer them to either an IRA or a workplace retirement plan elsewhere. (2)

If you are younger than age 59½ and fail to pay the full amount of the loan back, the I.R.S. will characterize any amount not repaid as a premature distribution from a retirement plan – taxable income that is also subject to an early withdrawal penalty. (3)

Even if you have great job security, the loan will probably have to be repaid in full within five years. Most workplace retirement plans set such terms. If the terms are not met, then the unpaid balance becomes a taxable distribution with possible penalties (assuming you are younger than 59½. (1)

Would you like to be taxed twice? When you borrow from an employee retirement plan, you invite that prospect. You will be repaying your loan with after-tax dollars, and those dollars will be taxed again when you make a qualified withdrawal of them in the future (unless your plan offers you a Roth option). (3,4)

Why go into debt to pay off debt? If you borrow from your retirement plan, you will be assuming one debt to pay off another. It is better to go to a reputable lender for a personal loan; borrowing cash has fewer potential drawbacks.   

You should never confuse your retirement plan with a bank account. Some employees seem to do just that. Fidelity Investments says that 20.8% of its 401(k) plan participants have outstanding loans in 2018. In taking their loans, they are opening the door to the possibility of having less money saved when they retire. (4)

Why risk that? Look elsewhere for money in a crisis. Borrow from your employer-sponsored retirement plan only as a last resort.


Justin D. Rucci, CFP®
Wealth Advisor
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Justin is an Investment Advisor Representative of Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance, strategy, and results of your portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Nothing in this commentary is a solicitation to buy, or sell, any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. We may hold securities referenced in the blog and due to the static nature of the content, those securities held may change over time and trades may be contrary to outdated posts.

 

Citations
1 – gobankingrates.com/retirement/401k/borrowing-401k/ [10/7/17]
2 – forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2018/01/16/new-tax-law-liberalizes-401k-loan-repayment-rules/ [1/16/18]
3 – cbsnews.com/news/when-is-it-ok-to-withdraw-or-borrow-from-your-retirement-savings/ [1/31/17]
4 – cnbc.com/2018/06/26/the-lure-of-a-401k-loan-could-mask-its-risks.html [6/26/18]

Word on the Street – A Conversation with Marcia Clark, CFA, MBA

Word on the Street – A Conversation with Marcia Clark, CFA, MBA

A sit down with our Senior Research Analyst to discuss the US market, international markets, and how we are approaching both for investors.

For this Word on the Street, I sat down with Marcia Clark to discuss a recent report that stated leading economic indicators in the US are positive. Marcia and I discussed what this report means for investors and how it relates to our stance at Warren Street.

Enjoy.

Yesterday (October 18th), Blake shared a report that talked about long-term economic indicators looking good in the US. However, we have heard a lot from Blake on investing overseas in international and emerging markets. If the US looks so good, then why are we doing this?

M.C.: Even though indicators [in the US] are strong right now, we are still in an established economy, and it’s not possible for a huge economy like ours to grow as quickly as a smaller and more dynamic one. Smaller economies tend to grow faster than developed economies because they have to build out infrastructure to support new businesses. This infrastructure improves productivity which in turn drives economic growth. Since 2000, emerging economies have grown about twice as fast as developed economies.

How long will this period of US strength continue, and how long will we have to wait for emerging markets to have another boom?

M.C.: The US is currently experiencing one of the longest expansions in our history. While we’re grateful for the stable growth, we know this can’t go on forever. It’s extremely difficult to know when the end is coming or how bad it’s going to be, so what do we do? We hope for the best but prepare for the worst. To make an analogy – most of us don’t expect a house fire, but we still carry insurance. In the investment business, it’s wise to look over all markets to find the best opportunities and spread out the economic risk. 

When we spoke about the report that Blake shared, you said, “when the US gets sick, the world sneezes.” If the US is not sick at the moment, why does the rest of the world seem to be dragging this year?

M.C.: When we say the US isn’t sick, how are we measuring that? Most people look at the S&P 500 and say the US is doing great compared to global averages, but if we take out the huge technology companies such as Google, Amazon, and Netflix, the US market isn’t that much further ahead. Many other countries experienced a “Great Recession” fallout in 2008-2009 far worse than the US, leaving them behind the US on the economic recovery timeline, particularly in regards to unemployment. Add to that the continuing struggle of European countries to integrate thousands of refugees from wars and conflicts in the Middle East and you can see why Europe and its neighbors are having a tougher time than the US.

Some people say that emerging markets are not a great value right now. If that is true, then why are we continuing to add to our position with them?

M.C.  The US is largely insulated from many global challenges, but at the same time, the US is so well developed that there aren’t a ton of market-changing innovation opportunities here either. So, we look overseas. The first thing to understand about emerging market economies is that they are not a homogenous group. For example, you wouldn’t compare emerging economies in peripheral Europe to those in Africa or South America. When we look to add exposure in a diverse sector like EM, we investigate active asset managers with a track record of identifying the best risk-reward trade-off in that broad landscape.

So what you are saying is, when we talk about adding emerging market exposure, we are not getting all of the emerging market economies. What does Warren Street look at for their emerging market exposure?

M.C.: We aren’t investing directly in these countries, so we don’t have a country-by-country economic forecast. However, the fund managers we use do this full-time. Some even send members of their investment teams to these emerging countries to understand the political landscape, the sentiment of the population, and the vibrancy of the economy. Our job is to vet these managers thoroughly, check their track record across different economic cycles, and review their current country allocation against our thoughts on world conditions. From there, we then choose the best manager for the job.

Taking a step back to a previous question, what happens when the US does finally get sick? What happens to world economies in that landscape? Similar to your quote, I have heard “when the US gets sick, the world gets the flu.”

M.C.: It is true that the US impact on other countries is stronger than their impact on us, but the US economy is fairly insulated because we buy and sell so much within our own borders. In times when the US is struggling, other nations step up their trading with each other and muddle through until the US economy bounces back. As we talked about earlier, there are plenty of differences between the economic environment in the US and elsewhere – developed countries have done better than us plenty of times in the past. Remember that less developed countries are even less correlated with the US than developed nations. So when the US is sick, oftentimes the best place to look is smaller nations that are building their own economies in their own regions.

Taking a look back at the US economy, if the outlook is good, then why don’t we add more to the US stock market?

M.C.: Our job at Warren Street Wealth is to keep you safe and help you grow your assets. Even the most successful investors don’t have a crystal ball. They don’t get it right every time, so diversification is the only “free lunch” – we would be foolish not to take advantage of it.

The US is only about 40% of the world market. If we only invested in the US, we are closing ourselves off to an additional 60% of opportunities available to us. That just seems silly. Good stuff is happening all around the world, so let’s reach out and find it.

What do you say to the investor that only believes in the US stock market?

M.C.: For investors with a very long time horizon without the need to draw on their funds unexpectedly, the US stock market might be your only investment. But most of us don’t have the luxury of leaving our money in the market for 40 years and weathering all the storms that come our way. As fiduciaries of your assets, we have an obligation to protect your assets and help you achieve your long-term financial goals. We may not capture 100% of the upside, but we are confident that we are going to keep you from experiencing 100% of the bad times.

Anything else you would like to share?

M.C.: The world is a very big place, and sometimes we don’t know what exciting things are happening on the opposite side of the planet. Being open-minded about where you send your capital could unlock amazing things in other places.

Lastly, there is a fantastic set of information on the global economy that can be found at the IMF’s website: Real GDP by Country


Cary Warren Facer
Founding Partner
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. 

 

Word on the Street – October 1st-5th

Word on the Street – October 1st – 5th

A brief conversation with our CIO, Blake Street, CFA, CFP®, on what’s going on in the world today.

We constantly want to deliver more content to our clients and followers on current events, and how we are viewing them from an investment or planning angle.

“Word on the Street” will be a series where I sit down with our Chief Investment Officer, Blake Street, CFA, CFP® to pick his brain on what’s going on in the news and what that means for you.

Here is the conversation I had with him on Friday, October 5th discussing the last couple weeks. Enjoy.

Alright, Blake. Let’s start with the new US trade deal that people are calling NAFTA 2.0. What’s your take and how will this new deal impact investors?

B.S.: NAFTA 2.0 or more accurately titled the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) in my opinion is largely underwhelming. At its core, it should bring some manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. from Mexico, but I also expect this to result in increased cost to the end consumer. Considering the United States spends $500 billion a year on autos, cost increases will be noticed.

The reason I’m underwhelmed is the negotiation process wasn’t without collateral damage in trade relations and the ultimate outcomes are incremental at best. Essentially, Canada and Mexico agreed that 75% of parts for cars built for export would be made in North America. This is up from the original agreement of 62.5% under NAFTA. They also agreed that 45% of cars would be built by workers making more than $16 an hour by 2023, this was ultimately targeted at Mexico and should result in rising costs for domestic and imported production. Mexico also agreed to improve labor conditions but enforcement remains vague.

Canada agreed to increase import quotas for U.S. dairy into their market. I’ve seen estimates that this could result in $50-$100 million in activity for American dairy farmers. Not sure this moves the needle, especially in the face of what appears to be a $100-$400 million decline in Chinese imports of American dairy in the coming years.

Additionally, USMCA hasn’t officially been ratified yet. It has only been approved for a vote. If the midterm elections put more Democrats in Congress, then they have the opportunity to deny President Trump the victory of its passing.

We are entering the last quarter of the first year operating under tax reform. Do you think that it has been good or bad for investors?

B.S.: It’s hard to argue that is has been anything but great for investors. Three straight quarters of near-record earnings and US markets are oscillating around record highs. Taxpayers have yet to officially file under the new tax reform, so they have yet to even feel the full benefits.

It will be interesting to see how equity markets react as we get into 2019. The initial thrust of the tax cuts on earnings will wane over time, and it will be interesting to compare year-over-year numbers to post-tax cut figures.

Is there anything people might be surprised about as they go to file?

B.S.: The biggest surprise to most will be the balance between an enhanced and expanded standard deduction, lower marginal rates, and aggressively capped state and local tax deductions. In addition, I expect the 20% pass-through deduction to surprise a lot of folks who don’t know how it works, in both a good and bad way.

How do you feel about Elon Musk and the SEC?

B.S.: He got off way too easy. He should have been stripped of his role as director and CEO in addition to losing his chairman position. His $20 million personal and $20 million corporate fines are a drop in the bucket compared to the market cap of Tesla and the potential money that was lost or made based on his manipulative behavior.

Leaking a takeover bid or the idea of taking a company private should force a stock price to the assumed target price. Any rational CEO would know this ahead of time. He coerced unknowing investors to buy into Tesla based on this information and blew out short positions which seemed to be his intention.

The amount of talk around marijuana stock is at a high again. How should investors approach it, if at all?

B.S.: Personally, it is not a sector I am interested in investing in for myself or for clients as it is still illegal at the federal level. Recent buzz escalated when Tilray, a Canadian pot producer, got approval for a clinical trial to use marijuana in pill form to treat seizures. They had about 10 million in sales last year, and the market cap soared to 15 billion, which is, frankly, absurd. A good piece of that market cap has been given back.

Should it ever become legal at the federal level, I expect a massive influx from titans of industry in alcohol, tobacco, and pharmaceuticals. Production will drive down cost quickly. If we were to invest, we would focus more on the picks and shovels, distribution, and manufacturing perspective. A diversified approach will likely pay as picking the winners of such a rapidly developing space may prove to be very difficult.

What do you find most interesting in the market right now?

B.S.: Emerging Markets.

Interesting response…why?

B.S.: They started the year at low relative valuations even after a monster 2017. As of the end of September, they were at a 20% drawdown from the year’s high. I continue to believe they will be the best place to be over the next 5-10 years for fundamental and demographic reasons. Dollar strength has caused a lot of pain in emerging market currency denominated holdings and the sell-off in emerging market stocks has reached seemingly oversold levels. The pain might not be fully over yet, so a disciplined approach to buying into recent weakness is needed.

The 10 year Treasury closed Friday at 3.23. What are some of your thoughts as rates rise?

B.S.: I believe we’re now 8 Fed Rate hikes in. The consensus seems to be that we are due for 3-4 more. It seems that the market is not fighting back and pushing yields down. It will continue to pay to be nimble, keep durations short, and invest in fixed income asset classes with lower rate sensitivity and look for opportunities abroad.

Do you see any opportunities or concerns with rates increasing?

B.S.: Rising rates have resulted in a strong dollar which puts pressure on emerging market debt causing yield spreads to widen. This has created possible valuation pockets within emerging market debt, and this opportunity should not be entered into lightly.

Concerns: If inflation and yields continue to rise, investors who are accustomed to long-term, stable outcomes will be surprised to find out how volatile bonds can be in a rising rate environment. Going back to 1976, bonds on average have only had 3 negative years. Count 2018 as the fourth. Would a fifth materially change investors perspectives on what bonds mean to portfolios? Or will investors continue to understand bonds importance in a well-diversified portfolio? This creates opportunity and concern.

Any closing remarks?

B.S.: Loss aversion is one of the most basic human tendencies I can think of. In a year where virtually every asset class other than US stocks is in the red, I can see a lot of potentially bad behavior starting to fester. It is important now more than ever that you don’t chase the hot dot. Stick to your plan, stick to your process, even if that means deferring to your advisor.


WSWA Team Compressed-19-squareJoe Occhipinti
Marketing Manager
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. 

 

Rate Watch 2018 – August

Rate Watch 2018 – August – SCE Grandfathered Pension

August’s rate is typically used for Edison’s official grandfathered pension plan interest rate. Where did it land, and how does that impact your pension?

Welcome to another edition of Rate Watch as we track the interest rate that is vital to the grandfathered pension at Southern California Edison.

The most important month of the year for grandfathered pension holders is upon us. August is typically used to set the grandfathered pension interest rate for the following plan year. Let’s take a look at where the rate it at:

These are not current plan rates for Southern California Edison’s pension plan, they are minimum present value third segment rates from the IRS. Official plan rates are derived from the minimum present value segment rates table (https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/minimum-present-value-segment-rates). Plan rate changes are made by Southern California Edison on an annual basis.

August came in at 4.46 and 0.10 higher than the current plan rate. Very simply, this means that your lump sum payout value will be higher with the 2018 plan value as opposed to the 2019 value.

Again, simply put, if you are grandfathered and thinking about retiring soon, then it might be in your best interest to retire and take the 2018 value to get a higher lump sum payout.

Since the difference in potential rates is small, the change in value is probably not great enough to heavily influence a decision to retire now or continue working, but it is something that should be capitalized on if retirement is on the horizon.

If you are unsure on how to request your paperwork or the timing to make sure you receive the 2018 pension rate, then contact us for a free retirement consultation, and we can show you how you can retire with confidence.


WSWA Team Compressed-19-squareJoe Occhipinti
Wealth Advisor
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

 


Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. 
Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. 

 

The IRA and the 401(k)

The IRA and the 401(k)

Comparing their features, merits, and demerits. 

How do you save for retirement? Two options probably come to mind right away: the IRA and the 401(k). Both offer you relatively easy ways to build a retirement fund. Here is a look at the features, merits, and demerits of each account, starting with what they have in common.

Taxes are deferred on money held within IRAs and 401(k)s. That opens the door for tax-free compounding of those invested dollars – a major plus for any retirement saver. (1)

IRAs and 401(k)s also offer you another big tax break. It varies depending on whether the account is traditional or Roth in nature. When you have a traditional IRA or 401(k), your account contributions are tax deductible, but when you eventually withdraw the money for retirement, it will be taxed as regular income. When you have a Roth IRA or 401(k), your account contributions are not tax deductible, but if you follow Internal Revenue Service rules, your withdrawals from the account in retirement are tax-free. (1)  

Generally, the I.R.S. penalizes withdrawals from these accounts before age 59½. Distributions from traditional IRAs and 401(k)s prior to that age usually trigger a 10% federal tax penalty, on top of income tax on the withdrawn amount. Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k)s allow you to withdraw a sum equivalent to your account contributions at any time without taxes or penalties, but early distributions of the account earnings are taxable and may also be hit with the 10% early withdrawal penalty.1  

You must make annual withdrawals from 401(k)s and traditional IRAs after age 70½. Annual withdrawals from a Roth IRA are not required during the owner’s lifetime, only after his or her death. Even Roth 401(k)s require annual withdrawals after age 70½. (2)

Now, on to the major differences.

Annual contribution limits for IRAs and 401(k)s differ greatly. You may direct up to $18,500 into a 401(k) in 2018; $24,500, if you are 50 or older. In contrast, the maximum 2018 IRA contribution is $5,500; $6,500, if you are 50 or older. (1)

Your employer may provide you with matching 401(k) contributions. This is free money coming your way. The match is usually partial, but certainly, nothing to disregard – it might be a portion of the dollars you contribute up to 6% of your annual salary, for example. Do these employer contributions count toward your personal yearly 401(k) contribution limit? No, they do not. Contribute enough to get the match if your company offers you one. (1)

An IRA permits a wide variety of investments, in contrast to a 401(k). The typical 401(k) offers only about 20 investment options, and you have no control over what investments are chosen. With an IRA, you have a vast range of potential investment choices. (1,3)

You can contribute to a 401(k) no matter how much you earn. Your income may limit your eligibility to contribute to a Roth IRA; at certain income levels, you may be prohibited from contributing the full amount, or any amount. (1)

If you leave your job, you cannot take your 401(k) with you. It stays in the hands of the retirement plan administrator that your employer has selected. The money remains invested, but you may have less control over it than you once did. You do have choices: you can withdraw the money from the old 401(k), which will likely result in a tax penalty; you can leave it where it is; you can possibly transfer it to a 401(k) at your new job; or, you can roll it over into an IRA. (4,5)

You cannot control 401(k) fees. Some 401(k)s have high annual account and administrative fees that effectively eat into their annual investment returns. The plan administrator sets such costs. The annual fees on your IRA may not nearly be so expensive. (1)

All this said, contributing to an IRA or a 401(k) is an excellent idea. In fact, many pre-retirees contribute to both 401(k)s and IRAs at once. Today, investing in these accounts seems all but necessary to pursue retirement savings and income goals.


J Rucci

Justin D. Rucci, CFP®
Wealth Advisor
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

 

 

Justin D. Rucci is an Investment Advisor Representative of Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented.

This material was prepared by Marketing Pro, Inc. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance, strategy, and results of your portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Nothing in this commentary is a solicitation to buy, or sell, any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. We may hold securities referenced in the blog and due to the static nature of the content, those securities held may change over time and trades may be contrary to outdated posts.

Citations.

1 – nerdwallet.com/article/ira-vs-401k-retirement-accounts [4/30/18]
2 – irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-regarding-required-minimum-distributions [5/30/18]
3 – tinyurl.com/y77cjtfz [10/31/17]
4 – finance.zacks.com/tax-penalty-moving-401k-ira-3585.html [9/6/18]
5 – cnbc.com/2018/04/26/what-to-do-with-your-401k-when-you-change-jobs.html [4/26/18]

Rate Watch 2018 – July

Rate Watch 2018 – July

We are only a couple month away from the August segment rate announcement. Where could rates land for SCE grandfathered pension holders as we head into the fall?

Welcome to another edition of Rate Watch as we track the interest rate that is vital to the grandfathered pension at Southern California Edison. If you’ve missed any of our previous articles, you can find them here:

Rate Watch 2018 – May & June
Rate Watch 2018 – April
Rate Watch 2018 – March
Rate Watch 2018 – February

June’s posting puts us 2 months away from August’s rate which is typically used by Southern California Edison for the grandfathered pension plan. If you are eyeballing retirement soon, then it is essential to understand where the rate is now and where it could be going. Here is the latest:

chart

*These are not current plan rates for Southern California Edison’s pension plan, they are minimum present value third segment rates from the IRS. Official plan rates are derived from the minimum present value segment rates table (https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/minimum-present-value-segment-rates) . Plan rate changes are made by Southern California Edison on an annual basis.

July at 4.60 puts us nearly 25 points above the current plan rate and would drive your current lump sum value down if you took your pension in 2019.

Nominally, nothing has really changed month-to-month, but there has also not been much going on that would drastically press the rates higher over the time period. The most important thing to note would be inflation slowly on the rise as we continue to be in an environment of historically low rates.

For those in the grandfathered pension plan and who believe they are on the brink of retirement, it is more important now than ever to begin putting a plan in place and seeing what your retirement looks like. Knowing how your assets weigh against your liabilities, how much you might need every year in retirement, and if you have the assets to accomplish everything you want are important answers to have before you have your final day of work.

If the official rate was announced today, then it may make sense to take your pension in the current plan year due to the fact that as rates increase, lump sum values decrease.

If you are just unsure of what your retirement looks like, then feel free to contact us for a free phone call or meeting. We have helped 100’s of SCE employees retire and numerous grandfathered pension holders weigh their options out to give themselves the best possible outcome and start to retirement.


WSWA Team Compressed-19-squareJoe Occhipinti
Wealth Advisor
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

 


Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. Information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. 
Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss.