Money Scripts—Part 2: How to Manage the Script

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Understanding why we behave the way we do with money is the first step toward transforming our relationship with it. In part one of this series, we explored the concept of money scripts—the unconscious beliefs about money that shape our financial decisions. And we dug into four dominant money scripts: money status, money worship, money avoidance and money vigilance. 

These scripts are not inherently good or bad. However, without awareness, they can create challenges in how we manage our finances. The good news? You can take control of your money script and reshape it in ways that better serve you. In this second part of the series, we’ll focus on actionable strategies to manage these scripts, flip unhelpful patterns and build healthier financial behaviors.

Managing Money Status

For individuals with a money status script, the drive to prove their own worth through financial achievements can lead to overspending, debt accumulation or a constant cycle of comparison.

To break free from the hold of money status, create intentional space between the desire to purchase and the action of buying. Pause and ask yourself: Am I making this purchase to fulfill an emotional need? Will buying this truly solve or address that need?

For example, if the urge to splurge on a luxury item hits, reflect on whether the purchase aligns with your long-term financial goals or if it’s merely an emotional reaction. Being mindful around purchases can help you gain control over impulsive spending habits and reduce the emotional weight you place on money as a source of self-esteem.

It may help to consider that we tend not to factor debt into our perceptions of others. When it comes to the proverbial Joneses (whom you might be tempted to keep up with), consider that they may themselves be walking an untenable tightrope, taking on too much debt to truly support their lifestyles. And if this is the case, it may not be something you want to emulate, let alone outdo. 

Managing Money Worship

Money worship may show up as the belief that financial success will lead to happiness and fulfillment. And while money may help reduce stress, it doesn’t necessarily lead to lasting contentment. In fact, research shows that while happiness does rise with income, for many, it tends to plateau once they make about $100,000 annually.

To counteract money worship, make a conscious effort to take money out of the happiness equation. Instead, prioritize activities and experiences that truly bring you joy. For instance, you may choose to invest in experiences, taking trips, exploring hobbies or trying something altogether new. Focus on your values. Ask yourself what really matters to you beyond the pursuit of wealth. It might be as simple as spending time with loved ones or giving back to your community.

Rather than chasing external symbols of success, redirect your energy toward building meaningful relationships and activities. This shift can help you redefine happiness in ways that are both fulfilling and sustainable.

Managing Money Avoidance

Money avoidance often stems from the belief that money is inherently bad or shameful. This script can lead to neglecting finances, avoiding budgets or feeling guilty about earning or spending money.

Overcoming money avoidance starts with building a healthy relationship with your finances. Here’s how:

  • Create financial habits: Start small. Dedicate 15 minutes a week to reviewing your budget, checking account balances or tracking expenses. The more you interact with your money, the less scary it becomes.
  • Reframe your perspective: Money is not inherently good or bad—it’s a tool. Reflect on the ways financial security can be a positive force in your life and the world around you. For example, having control over your money can empower you to help loved ones, support causes you care about and enjoy more peace of mind.

By consistently engaging with your finances, you can begin to replace feelings of shame or discomfort with a sense of empowerment and control.

Managing Money Vigilance

Money vigilance often leads to responsible financial behavior, like saving diligently and avoiding excessive spending. However, its downside can include anxiety around spending or an inability to enjoy the rewards of hard work.

To ensure your money vigilance doesn’t become overly restrictive, watch for signs of financial anxiety:

  • Are you monitoring your finances excessively?
  • Do you feel guilty when spending money, even on things that bring joy or improve your quality of life?
  • Are you afraid of spending freely, even when you can afford to do so, and your purchases align with your goals?

Striking a balance is key. While saving is vital, allow yourself to enjoy the fruits of your labor. Create space in your budget for small, intentional indulgences. 

Discovering Your Script

These four money scripts are not exhaustive, nor are they mutually exclusive. Many people embody a mix of these beliefs, influenced by personal experiences, family teachings and cultural norms. The key is identifying your most dominant scripts and understanding how they impact your financial behaviors.

What are your money scripts? Discovering them requires honest self-reflection. Start by exploring the following questions:

  • What did family and community members teach me about money? Was money seen as good, bad or taboo? Did financial success signify status? Was it a source of stress or pride?
  • What did my circumstances teach me? If money was scarce during your childhood, you may now see it as something to hoard or fear. Alternatively, if money provided security, it might feel like a source of safety.
  • What has my culture taught me? In the U.S., for instance, discussing money is often considered taboo, even though consumer culture places enormous pressure to spend and accumulate wealth.

As you reflect, take note of which beliefs have served you well and which ones may be holding you back. Ask yourself: How have these beliefs impacted my financial decisions? Are they helping me build the life I want, or do they create stress and frustration?

Flipping the Script

Identifying and understanding your money scripts is just the beginning. Transforming them requires ongoing effort, self-awareness and a willingness to experiment with new behaviors. 

One way to start the transformation? Be on the lookout for habit loops. What happens when you think about money? Do you go online and shop? Do you go organize your sock drawer? What are the results of these behaviors? Perhaps you find you go on bouts of overspending, deny yourself affordable enjoyments or avoid necessary financial tasks, such as paying your bills.  

Reshaping your money scripts is a lifelong journey. As you gather new insights and experiences, you’ll continue to refine your approach to money in ways that align with your goals and values. Taking the time to reflect—and reshape—your mindset can create lasting change. If you’ve applied these tactics and still find yourself struggling, you might consider turning to a financial therapist who can further help uncover the emotions guiding financial decisions and help you work toward healthy financial behaviors. And as always, we’re here to support however we can.

WSWA

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Money Scripts—Part 1: The Stories We Tell Ourselves in Order to Live, Save and Spend

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When it comes to our finances, we’re only human. We make good decisions and sometimes, not-so-good decisions. Behavioral biases play a big role in our savings, spending and investing decisions. But there’s another reason behind some of the financial decisions we make: It’s how we were brought up. 

Psychologist Dr. Brad Klontz calls these our “money scripts”—unconscious rules and beliefs we develop about money that are often passed from generation to generation. Some guide us in positive directions, like learning the importance of saving for a rainy day. And some can lead to challenging behaviors later in life. One study in Britain, for example, found that children who were raised in households where spending was secretive were more likely to develop hoarding and other compulsive money habits as adults.

“The problem is that we take these beliefs for granted as adults, and we rarely go back and examine them, let alone decide to change them,” Klontz says. “Instead, they’re kind of like an actor’s script in a movie; we just continue to read the lines in our heads…and believe that they’re true, when in fact, they are often quite distorted and limit our success.”

Not all money scripts are bad. But getting caught up in your own negative money scripts can knock you off course as you pursue your financial goals. Learning to recognize your scripts—and discovering ways to counter those negative ones—puts the power in your court, helping you make positive changes to your financial behavior. 

In the first of this two-part of this series, let’s explore some of the most common money scripts.

Understanding Money Scripts

While there are many money scripts, Klontz and his fellow researchers have identified four main patterns. 

  1. Money status: This category of scripts leads people to tie their self-esteem to how much money they have. It can lead to impulse buying and overspending to flaunt wealth.

    It might fuel the urge to keep up with the Joneses—or even show them up. Those who largely view their money as a status symbol believe that buying things like high-end clothes or luxury cars will show the world how successful they are. They might round up when they tell people how much they earn, and keep secrets about money from their partners, especially if their spending leads to living beyond their means. They might also have distorted view of others based on how much money they have, believing rich people should be happy and poor people are lazy or don’t deserve money at all, for instance.

They might also have distorted view of others based on how much money they have, believing rich people should be happy and poor people are lazy or don’t deserve money at all, for instance.

  1. Money worship: Those who identify with money worship often feel like money is the key to happiness, freedom and power—and if they only had more, their problems would be solved. 

Closely tied to these feelings is the belief that you can never have too much money, and that you can’t trust other people around money issues. This belief can set money worshippers on a spend, spend, spend treadmill as they chase happiness goal posts that keep shifting further into the distance. 


  1. Money avoidance: People who avoid money (or at least managing the money they’ve got) carry a deep-seated belief that money is bad or shameful, that accumulating wealth is greedy and that those who do so are corrupt. It may come as no surprise, then, that money avoidance can hamper the ability to accumulate wealth.

    Those who identify with this pattern may have a deep distrust of wealth and rich people and may even think that having less money is virtuous. After all, money corrupts and the rich must be taking advantage of people, right? There may even be some feeling of not deserving to have money.
  2. Money vigilance: Vigilant spenders accept that money is a practical tool best used to save for the future. The money vigilant are often frugal, and they may downplay how much they make and even be secretive about money.

    For these people, talking about money can feel shameful or taboo, making it tough to have practical conversations about it. They may have a hard time spending money on themselves, whether it’s buying a new appliance when the old one breaks or shelling out on an interest or activity that brings them joy. 

Now, we should note that these categories represent extremes. And as such, they may not read as particularly attractive. Who wants to identify with any of them, really? But in reality, we likely contain a bit of each of these patterns to varying degrees. Some may pull stronger than others, and some that sound overtly negative may offer strengths. For example, it’s okay to buy something flashy every once and a while (and even to get a thrill from showing off a bit), especially if your stronger tendencies lean toward money vigilance.      

With an understanding of the most common money scripts under your belt, you’re equipped to start keeping an eye out for where echoes of each appear in your own life in positive and negative ways. This identification process is important, because it allows you to move away from tendencies that don’t serve you well and toward those that do. In the second part of this series, we’ll offer strategies for flipping the script on these common behaviors and exploring your own personal money scripts. Stay tuned!

And in the meantime, we’re here to answer questions or offer strategies that can help you better reach your long-term financial goals.

WSWA

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

How Do You Prepare the Next Generation to Manage Family Wealth?

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Over the next few decades, an enormous amount of wealth is expected to pass from older to younger generations. This has been dubbed the “Great Wealth Transfer,” and one estimate suggests that $124 trillion will change hands by 2048. It’s an eye-popping figure, to be sure, but it also highlights the reality that many families are, or soon will be, navigating how to pass on their wealth. A top-of-mind question: Is the next generation ready to take on the responsibility?

Wealth is not just cash in the bank; it can include investments, real estate, businesses and more that require stewardship and foresight. Successful management means preserving and growing assets and using them wisely. Striking the right balance here is key: For the next generation to succeed, it takes intentional preparation and education. 

Plant the Seeds of Financial Literacy

Where to begin? In an ideal world, financial education starts in early childhood and is treated as an open and ongoing conversation as kids age. The goal is to build financial literacy gradually, so wealth management feels natural rather than overwhelming.

When kids are young, this might mean introducing simple topics like the difference between saving and spending. Managing an allowance can help put those ideas into practice. As kids get older you can begin introducing more complex topics, such as investing, compound interest, debt and taxes. 

It’s equally important to engage adult children, many of whom may have received no other formal financial education. While 29 states now have K–12 financial education requirements in public schools, this focus has largely come to the forefront only in the last few years. If your kids are adults now, they may have missed out. So it’s worth finding out what they know, what they don’t know and what they’d like to know more about.  

Put Structure Around Learning 

In addition to ongoing conversations about money, your family might benefit from more intentional ways of building financial literacy. Some families hold regular financial meetings where they share goals, key issues and address questions or concerns. Others put together more formal workshops with wealth advisors or other experts. 

There also is a wealth of credible educational content online that is built to both educate and engage audiences around financial literacy topics.

Turn Conversations into Action

Eventually, theory should give way to practice. As younger family members learn the basics, you might consider providing a “practice portfolio,” giving them the chance to make investment decisions with small amounts of money and learn from their successes and mistakes.

When family members have honed their knowledge, consider assigning them real responsibilities that match their skills and interest. This might mean relatively simple tasks like helping guide gifts made through a donor-advised fund. Or these responsibilities could be more involved, such as taking a role in the family business or helping to make investment decisions with the family’s wealth. With your guidance and oversight, these experiences can help develop confidence and capability.  

Ground Wealth in Purpose and Values 

One of the most important things that helps guide families on how to grow and spend wealth is imparting a strong value system. Values can help you frame wealth as a tool rather than a goal. 

Your values will be unique to you, but some worth considering may be: 

  • Stewardship: Recognizing the responsibility that comes with wealth. Stewardship encourages careful management and intentional choices so resources can benefit both current and future generations.
  • Giving back: Using wealth to help create positive change in your community and the greater world. 
  • Self-worth beyond wealth: Remembering that wealth is a tool to achieve goals—whether gaining an education, pursuing passion or giving back, for instance—not a measure of personal value. 

By grounding financial decisions in values, families can help prevent counterproductive or reckless financial decisions, foster responsibility and ensure wealth is not seen as something to be simply consumed.

Keep the Conversation Going

Discussing money isn’t always easy, and for many families, it’s downright taboo. While 66% of Americans say conversations about wealth are important, 62% say they never have them.  

But getting over this hurdle is incredibly valuable. The most successful families treat wealth education not as a one-time event, but as an ongoing process that evolves as your family grows and your financial picture changes. We can work with you to create an environment where family members can openly discuss the unique challenges and opportunities that come with wealth. 

Veronica Cabral, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

New Year, New Tax Considerations: What You Need to Know Before Filing Your 2025 Taxes

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Filing your tax return may feel routine. But the devil is in the details, as they say, and those details have a pesky habit of shifting from year to year. The 2025 tax year is a good example: Rule changes this year include both incremental adjustments and larger shifts stemming from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), passed in July. Understanding these changes now can help you maximize deductions, spot planning opportunities and avoid surprises when you file.

A Boost for Traditional Deductions

The OBBBA made several taxpayer-friendly provisions permanent, starting with a higher standard deduction. For 2025, the standard deduction rises to $15,750 for single filers, up from $15,000 in 2024. For married couples filing jointly, the deduction increases to $31,500, up from $30,000.

The legislation also expanded the Child Tax Credit, raising it to $2,200 per qualifying child, compared with $2,000 under prior law.

Brand New Tax Deductions

The OBBBA introduced several new deductions to be on the lookout for: 

  • Personal deduction for seniors: If you were born before Jan. 2, 1961, you can take a $6,000 deduction ($12,000 if married filing jointly) in addition to your standard or itemized deduction. This deduction is phased out if your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is between $75,000 ($150,000 for joint filers) and $175,000 ($250,000 for joint filers). 
  • Tax deduction for tips and overtime pay: The Trump administration has described these provisions as “no tax” on tips and overtime, but that framing oversimplifies how the new code works. In practice, there is now a deduction for voluntary cash or charged tips earned in industries where tipping is customary. From 2025 through 2028, eligible single filers can deduct up to $25,000 in tipped income, though the deduction begins to phase out for individuals with MAGI above $150,000.

    A similar deduction applies to a portion of qualified overtime pay from 2025 through 2028. In most cases, this refers only to the premium portion of overtime—for example, the extra “half” in “time-and-a-half” pay—rather than the worker’s full hourly wage. For single filers, the deduction is capped at $12,500 of eligible compensation for those with MAGI below $150,000. The deduction is phased out above that amount and is zeroed out once above $275,000.
  • Car loan interest deduction: If you financed the purchase of a new vehicle in 2025, you may be eligible to deduct up to $10,000 in interest paid on that loan. But here’s the fine print: The vehicle must be for personal use, and it must have been built in the United States. To determine if your car fits the bill, look at your vehicle identification number (VIN). Cars built in the United States will have a VIN that starts with a 1, 4 or 5. The cap also phases out for single filers with MAGI above $100,000.

    In future years, lenders will be required to report auto loan interest payments directly to both taxpayers and the IRS. For this year, you may need to do a little digging through your loan statements, or you can request a summary of interest paid from your lender.

Gift and Estate Tax Exemptions

The OBBBA gave some much-needed clarity to a crucial estate planning rule. The lifetime estate and gift tax exemption was previously scheduled to sunset at the end of the year, which would have reduced the exemption from nearly $14 million to about $6 million. Instead, the higher exemption has been made permanent. Here’s where things stand now:

  • The estate and gift tax exemption is $13.99 million for 2025 and is scheduled to rise to $15 million in 2026.
  • The annual gift tax exclusion is $19,000 per recipient in 2025 and will remain at that level in 2026.

While it’s too late to make a tax-free gift for 2025, now is a good time to begin planning gifting strategies for 2026.

Tax Reporting on Cryptocurrency 

Beginning in 2025, the IRS now requires that crypto transactions are reported. If you sold or exchanged digital assets on a platform such as Coinbase, you should receive a Form 1099-DA. a new tax form created specifically for digital assets. Capital gains taxes may apply to crypto sales and trades. It’s also worth noting that digital currencies may be taxed as ordinary income if you receive them as payment.

It’s Not Too Late to Fund Your IRA

Your window for 2025 401(k) contributions closed at the end of the year. But if you want to pad your traditional or Roth IRA with 2025 contributions, you can do so up until the April 15 filing deadline. The contribution limit for IRAs is $7,000, but you can save an additional $1,000 if you’re 50 or older.

Planning Ahead Matters 

The impact of these changes depends on your income, filing status and long-term goals. Take time now to review your situation, gather the right documentation and coordinate tax decisions with your broader financial plan to make most of the current rules. And if you have any questions, we’re here to help bring clarity and confidence as you head into the filing season.

Ernest Jones, CPA

Director of Tax, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

This is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be construed as tax advice. Please consult your accountant for advice or to review any recommendation herein. The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

How Much Do I Need to Retire in 2026?

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A few years ago, ads from financial services companies asked, “What’s your number?” The “number” represented the amount of money you needed to retire comfortably. There are, of course, various approaches to estimating your retirement “number,” all of which are influenced by your goals and factors, such as your expected retirement age and the lifestyle you hope to maintain in retirement. So, while this question may have been an effective way to spark conversations about retirement, we believe that it doesn’t paint the complete picture.

Retirement isn’t just about reaching a specific monetary goal. It also involves creating a comprehensive strategy that looks to optimize your various savings vehicles, each playing a different role in your retirement income approach. It also means factoring in healthcare costs, thinking about the legacy you wish to leave, and being flexible enough to adapt to life’s unexpected twists and turns. Ultimately, your strategy needs to consider how your assets will work together to fund the retirement you envision.

An essential part of orchestrating your retirement income strategy is determining which assets to take and in which order. 

There is no one-size-fits-all answer, but some general guidelines can help when you are starting to think about a withdrawal strategy.

For example, one approach to consider is withdrawing money from taxable accounts first, then tax-deferred, then tax-exempt. By using taxable money first, you can avoid paying taxes as long as possible with tax-deferred investments. And your tax-exempt accounts remain tax-exempt for a longer period. Ultimately, your decision will be influenced by a wide range of other considerations, including withdrawal fees, surrender charges, and other costs that may be associated with each specific account. But when possible, consider using the power of tax deferral and tax exemption to your advantage. 

Regardless of your age or financial position, having a well-thought-out retirement strategy is one of the most critical actions you can take. If you would like to review your current strategy, please contact our office. We’re here for you!

Emily Balmages, CFP®

Director of Financial Planning, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

2026 Outlook: Beyond AI & Mega-Cap Tech

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“Is AI a bubble?” my uncle asked as I put my fork down mid-bite on New Year’s Eve. I’d wager that this question dominated dinner tables and family gatherings across the country this holiday season. Even my sister, whose focus lies entirely within the arts and creative pursuits, managed to put the two words “AI” and “Bubble” together.

This tells me two things: 1) Concern around AI and “bubble-ness” is virtually inescapable and 2) this question is dominating the audience’s perception of markets, perhaps even more so than the meteoric rise of silver and gold as we enter 2026.

Why Does AI Deserve So Much Attention?

In 2025, AI-related names drove ~60% of the increase in the S&P 500’s value. Furthermore, AI spending from the “Hyperscalers” (Google, Microsoft, etc.) accounted for the lion’s share of our economy’s growth. Without the spending on data center infrastructure—servers, GPUs, and the centers themselves—some estimates suggest US GDP would have grown at a measly 0.1% in the first half of 2025. It’s safe to say that AI alone kept the economy afloat for most of last year.

The robust figures above underscore why AI rightfully commands significant attention. However, fixating on the bubble label can be a trap, much like timing the market. Instead, we should look at bubble psychology and how those excesses may be extending into the AI ecosystem.

Settling the AI Bubble Talk

It’s been over 20 years since we’ve seen such a transformative, general-purpose technology with the potential to deliver productivity gains eclipsing the internet era. This fervor has already minted a class of early winners, leaving everyone else watching with a potent mix of envy and regret. It’s the classic setup for FOMO, where the “AI train” starts looking less like a sound, technological investment and more like a high-speed shortcut to a cushy nest egg.

The danger is that the faster this train moves, the easier it is to speed right past the following flags:

  • Starting Valuations: We pay prices regardless of whether reasonable returns can be generated.
  • Risk/Reward Profiles: We stop asking if we’re actually being compensated for the layers of risk we’re adding to our broader portfolio.
  • Lofty Narratives: AI’s newness unrestrains the imagination to justify price tags that reality can’t yet support.

Behind the Excitement: What’s Different This Time?

A Stronger Starting Line-Up Unlike the fragile startups of the dotcom era, today’s main AI spenders are profitable, cash-printing businesses. They are self-funding a massive AI arms race with capital expenditures set to leap by 60%, from $250bn in 2025 to over $400bn in 2026. Operating cash flows continue to outspace AI spend as a percentage of sales, allowing this historic investment to feel like a strategic augmentation of their core businesses rather than a reckless gamble.

Justified Valuations While Forward P/E ratios look expensive, today’s multiples are anchored by real-world profit. Take Nvidia: its stock price increased 14x over the last five years, but earnings grew 20x. Today’s titans aren’t as frothy as the dotcom class of 2000 because they are delivering healthy bottom-line results. However, this optimism hinges on perfection. While bulls argue we are buying “cheaper” growth today than at any point in the decade, that narrative leaves a near zero margin for error if adoption slows.

Infrastructure Demand In contrast to the fiber-optic mania of the 90s, the demand for AI build-outs can’t seem to catch a break. Data center vacancy rates are at a record low of 1.6%, and ~75% of pre-construction builds are already pre-leased. Additionally, past infrastructure bubbles saw spending peak between 2% and 5% of GDP, whereas today’s AI investment sits at roughly 1%. This suggests the build-out still has room to run.

Show Me the Money Revenues are skyrocketing. Alphabet’s Q3 2025 results proved that AI-driven features are accelerating search and ads, with generative AI product revenue surging into the triple-digit percentage range year-over-year. Beyond the titans, some industry participants have grown revenues nearly ninefold since ChatGPT launched. For now, the receipts are keeping the optimism alive.

AI Is Running Fast… But Will it Trip a Wire?

We are in a high-stakes arms race on both a micro level (hyperscalers) and a macro level (US vs. China). Businesses are pouring trillions into this effort to secure US leadership in a technology that will change the fabric of society. But in this race to the top, it’s easy to overlook the blind spots.

Revenues & Profits: Can We Reach the Promised Land? Despite the growth, there is a staggering gap between spending and earning. Analyst Azeem Azhar points out that AI companies are projected to generate $60bn in revenue against $400bn in spending for 2025. That’s a 6-7x gap—far wider than the dotcom bubble (4x) or the railroad boom (2x). Even if revenue catches up, will it translate to profit, or will we see a “race to the bottom” where large language models (LLMs) become commoditized?

Is Demand Real? Adoption is still in its awkward early stages. Only roughly 10% of firms are using AI to produce goods, though 45% pay for LLM subscriptions. According to the Stanford AI Index and McKinsey, the majority of firms are seeing only modest cost savings (≤10%) and negligible revenue gains (≤5%). Will AI adoption ever truly scale into broad, durable profit expansion?

How Long is Your (Useful) Life? Hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google have boosted profits by extending the “useful life” of their AI assets in their books. If innovation renders chips obsolete in 24 months, these companies will face massive write-downs. More importantly, they are funding this short-lived hardware with 30-year debt, leaving investors holding the bag for “obsolete” infrastructure that won’t be paid off for decades.

The AI Ouroboros There is an increasingly circular dance where Microsoft invests in OpenAI and then books cloud revenue from them. Nvidia buys stakes in the startups they sell chips to. This means a chunk of today’s “booming” revenue is an internal recycling of capital where true economic profit from external customers remains hypothetical.



Cloudy with a Chance of IOUs: While the biggest players usually use cash, we’re seeing a pivot toward the bond market. Oracle and Meta have emerged as outliers, using long-term bonds and project finance to bankroll their data centers. As free cash flow wilts under the weight of AI spend, their stock prices are feeling the gravity. Furthermore, the industry is using Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to hide this leverage off-balance sheet, adding a layer of obscurity to the trillions being spent.

Conclusion: A Massive Collection of What-Ifs

Ultimately, the AI story comes down to “what-ifs.” What if AGI finally shows up and productivity explodes? Or, what if demand never materializes and the hyperscalers finally blink? With cracks showing—like OpenAI’s recent “Code Red”—it’s impossible to say if we’re headed for a minor correction or a systemic burst.

Our 2026 Recommendations:
  1. Keep a seat at the table: Exposure to market-cap weighted indices allows you to benefit if the “promised land” materializes.
  2. Diversify your sources of risk: Anchor beyond US tech. Gold, international markets, and bonds offer a necessary buffer if signs of excess turn into a choppy ride.

Rebalance systematically: Rebalancing is a controllable hedge. When sector weights become excessive, returning to target allocations helps lock in gains and reduce concentration risk.

Phillip Law, CFA

Senior Portfolio Manager, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

2026 Investment Outlook: AI, Economy, Inflation

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With 2025 in the rear view mirror, we look towards the new year. What lessons did we learn and what trends deserve attention? How do we allocate portfolios based on that knowledge? In this piece, we’d like to share three areas of focus heading into 2026:

  1. Artificial Intelligence and Bubbleness
  2. The State of the US Economy
  3. The Biggest Risks to Asset Markets (Namely Inflation)

2025 Recap: Laughing in the Face of Di-worsification:

After years of US led-dominance, we saw narratives across asset classes flip on their heads. For the first time in years:

  • US Stocks underperformed developed international and emerging market geographies.
  • Gold, held for its diversification benefits, shined more brightly than most major asset categories. 

Source: YCharts

The year reminded us that “di-worsification” – a term long used to parody the idea that diversifying into less correlated, non-US assets only made portfolios worse – isn’t a universal truth. In 2025, holding different asset segments helped weather volatile trade policy, weakening dollar, and US deficit concerns.

Ultimately, we left 2025 with a more fragmented globe where nations now emphasize national security and independence over globalized efficiencies. In this new regime where the global economy is de-synchronized, we believe diversification is more essential than ever.

Looking to 2026: What of AI and Its Bubbleness?

The topic of artificial intelligence being a bubble is almost inescapable. AI Hyperscalers, bolstered by massive spending commitments on AI investments,  drove over 60% of the S&P 500’s growth and was a key lifeline for the economy in 2025. With AI hyperscalers and key players constituting a significant portion of the S&P 500, the ecosystem will likely continue to define US markets in 2026. So is it a bubble?

We have a separate piece that deep dives into the AI Bubble question which I’ve summarized below:

The Bull Case:

Proponents argue that this time is different compared to other speculative manias. The players here are profitable, cash-printing businesses whose valuations are not only reasonable, but also are pricing in achievable growth. Furthermore, there is ample demand for infrastructure, particularly data centers, unlike the railroad and dotcom bubbles. This all will enable revenue to follow, which has already exhibited enormous growth rates.

The Bear Case:

Despite tremendous growth, AI companies are spending way more than they’re making, (higher than past bubbles). Demand from businesses remains uncertain, with early studies showing only modest cost savings/revenue gains. Also, most revenue booked today is a result of circular investing amongst AI players. Meanwhile, AI companies are using aggressive accounting methods for their chips, which puts future earnings estimates at risk. Lastly, debt is now being used to finance spending, officially adding a shot clock for return on investment to materialize.

What to Do?

Within the deep-dive, we reach two conclusions: 

1. Focusing on the “bubble” label is often unproductive. Even if excesses exist, timing the eventual “burst” is a fool’s errand—will it be in one year or five? Selling too early means potentially missing out on healthy gains.

As Peter Lynch noted, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”

2. The AI dilemma is ultimately a huge collection of what-ifs, but we believe keeping a seat at the table while diversifying sources of risk and return in other parts of the portfolio such as international stocks, bonds, or gold is prudent.

How’s the US Economy?

Objectively speaking, the economy is in a healthy state heading into 2026. Let’s look at a few primary indicators:

  • A Productive Economy – GDP grew at an astonishing annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025 and is projected to grow ~2% (long-term average) in 2026. We expect AI spending to continue as hyperscalers add to productivity and other businesses increase adoption.
  • The Spending Surprise – Despite rising concerns around job security and waning sentiment, Americans are still spending. In late 2025, retail sales surged 3.5% year-over-year and we observed a healthy uptick in credit card balances.
  • Fiscal & Monetary Stimulus: 
    •  Heading into 2026, we’ve unlocked tax credits from the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). We take estimates with a grain of salt, but if $100bn in total tax refunds and a $3,750 average tax cut per filer could further stimulate consumer spending.
    • The market currently anticipates two rate cuts, which will lower the cost of borrowing for both businesses and consumers (maybe more, pending Federal Reserve politics).

With a solid launching pad to start the year followed by additional liquidity in consumers pockets, we believe the US economy is well-equipped heading into 2026.

What About the Risks?

We believe the primary, non-wildcard risk to asset markets is inflation. Although inflation has stabilized from recent years, it remains sticky compared to pre-pandemic levels (around 2%), with the Fed’s preferred measure recently estimated at 2.8%.

The current economic backdrop does allow more sensitivities to a spike in inflation.

  1. Trade fragmentation and tariffs – while most businesses seemingly absorbed the price increases of tariffs in 2025, we’ve begun to see some price hikes passed to consumers in recent inflation prints. 
  2. Is Stimulus a Double-Edged Sword? – While increased liquidity for consumers can be helpful, it may also fuel inflation. The prior stimulus checks led to double-digit drops in equities and bonds (2022) as we raised rates to fight policy-driven inflation.
  3. Financial Repression – With US Debt-to-GDP approaching 120%, there is a risk that policymakers resort to “financial repression” – intentionally allowing higher inflation to “inflate away” the real value of government debt.

With US equities trading expensively and bonds vulnerable to inflation, I’d park this risk in the low probability, but high impact camp. To mitigate this risk, owning a portion of your portfolio to hedges (gold, commodities, natural resources) can cushion against a potential 2022 repeat.

Conclusion:

Ultimately, the backdrop seems favorable for US equity markets heading into 2026. Even if markets are frothy, the solution to managing potential excesses and drawdowns is not in timing them, but instead: a) building adequately diversified portfolios b) aligning allocations with your risk tolerance and financial objective and c) rebalancing into weakness to harness the long-term growth of capital markets at more advantageous price levels.

That’s our 2026 outlook. Our advice remains: use these investing principles as your foundation. This will allow 2026 to be less about watching tickers and more about the life you’re building. Hit that PR, read those books, or learn to cook—aim to achieve your best self. While we can recommend investments and share outlooks, there’s no substitute for investing in your own growth and happiness.

Phillip Law, CFA

Senior Portfolio Manager, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Five Behavioral Finance Resolutions for a Better Financial Year

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As the old year draws to a close and a new one begins, millions of Americans will once again make New Year’s resolutions. For many, these resolutions focus on health or wealth, and when it comes to financial resolutions, the usual suspects tend to surface: spend less, save more and pay down debt.

These are, of course, worthwhile goals. But this year, consider adding another set of resolutions that go beyond budgeting and focus on the behavioral tendencies that shape—and sometimes sabotage—financial decision-making. In the year ahead, consider the following behavioral resolutions to help you make sound financial choices.

Dial Down Your Emotions

Emotions often move faster than logic. They can override rational thinking and push you toward decisions that may feel good in the moment but undermine long-term financial health. This year, resolve to take emotion out of investing. 

Separating feelings from financial choices can help you sidestep several potentially damaging behavioral biases, including loss aversion. This is the tendency for investors to fear losses more than they value gains. This bias can lead to panic selling in volatile markets, potentially causing you to lock in losses and miss market rebounds. Alternatively, it could cause you to hold onto losing positions far too long, making you unwilling to cut your losses even when it is financially beneficial to do so. 

Emotional investing can also fuel home bias, the instinct to stick with what’s familiar to you. Maybe that’s a certain company or an industry you know well. Or maybe it’s focusing on U.S. stocks to the exclusion of shares of international companies. Instead, practice viewing your investments not as extensions of your preferences or identity, but simply as the tools that are helping you reach your long-term objectives. 

Get a Second Opinion

Every once in a while, you may be tempted to alter your long-term financial plan. Before pulling the trigger, it pays to seek a second opinion. Expert counsel can help rein in a pair of common behavioral biases: overconfidence and confirmation bias. 

Overconfidence bias is the tendency for investors to believe they know more than they do or can predict outcomes with greater accuracy than is likely possible. The danger here is it might lead to risky behaviors like trying to time the market or going big on what they think is a can’t-miss investment opportunity. 

Meanwhile, confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out only information that supports existing beliefs. This can land you in an echo chamber where it’s hard to tell whether an investment decision is a good idea or not. 

Seeking outside advice helps you pressure-test ideas, reveal assumptions you may have missed and move forward with greater clarity.

Keep an Open Mind

Financial markets evolve constantly. Rigid thinking increases the risk of missing potential opportunities or holding onto investments that are no longer serving you.

Keeping an open mind helps you stay adaptable and able to reevaluate long-held assumptions and adjust when new information emerges. This helps counter status quo bias, the impulse to stick with the current situation purely because it’s familiar and what’s already happening. It also helps avoid anchoring, the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered. For example, investors might anchor to the original price of a stock, using it as a benchmark for future decisions—such as when to buy and sell—rather than focusing on other, more relevant information.

Look at Things From Different Angles

How information is presented can dramatically shift how we interpret it. The same facts can feel very different depending on how they’re presented. Marketers, pundits and headline writers understand this well; it’s one of the ways they can make news seem sensational.

But before accepting something as true, especially in finance, it’s useful to examine it from multiple angles. Seek out contrarian viewpoints, reframe the story and ask yourself what the opposite case might look like.

This approach helps guard against framing bias, where decisions are influenced by how information is presented rather than what the information actually says. For example, a fund described as having a “5% chance of loss” might feel riskier than one described as having a “95% chance of success,” even though both statements describe the same probability.

Stepping back, asking questions and challenging your first interpretation can lead to better, more balanced decisions.

Start a Media Diet

Today’s information ecosystem is noisy, fragmented and optimized to snag your attention. Headlines are crafted to provoke emotion, and social media feeds tend to amplify the sensational. 

A media diet can help restore balance. You don’t have to disengage entirely, but you may want to limit exposure to influencers offering unvetted advice, sticking instead to outlets with strong editorial standards. Part of a healthy media diet also involves resisting the urge to check the market every day. Your long-term strategy doesn’t require play-by-play updates.

A healthier personal media environment helps curb availability bias, where recent or highly publicized events distort your perception of risk. It also combats recency bias, which leads investors to overweight the latest market movements. And by lowering exposure to trending narratives, it limits the pull of herding—the impulse to follow the crowd, chasing whatever big name is dominating the week’s headlines.

Mastering Your Mindset

Good financial decision-making is largely about controlling behavioral impulses. Being more deliberate about how you think—less emotional, more open-minded and more balanced in how you consume information—can put you in a better position to stay focused on what truly matters: your long-term goals and the plan designed to help you meet them. 

If you ever have any questions or want to talk more about how to put these principles into practice, reach out, and we’d be happy to talk. 

Veronica Cabral

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Introducing Warren Street Global Equity ETF (WSGE) – An Informed Approach to Diversification

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We’re thrilled to announce a major milestone for our firm and our clients: the launch of the Warren Street Global Equity ETF (NASDAQ: WSGE)!

This new Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is now available, bringing our disciplined investment philosophy to the public in a convenient, accessible format. This is an exciting step forward as we continue to provide sophisticated investment solutions while delivering on our fiduciary commitment.

The Warren Street Wealth Advisors team celebrates the launch with a visit to the NASDAQ MarketSite in Times Square, New York.

What is WSGE and Why Did We Create It?

The Warren Street Global Equity ETF (WSGE) is designed to be a smarter way to invest in the global stock market. The traditional choice has always been either a simple, broad index fund or a complicated, expensive actively managed fund. We created WSGE to give you the best of both worlds: global diversification with a smart strategy built to enhance returns.

Focus on You: The Key Client Benefits

While the investment strategy is robust, the most important reason we created WSGE is to provide direct, tangible benefits to you, our clients, and to uphold our fiduciary standard:

  • Embedded Tax Efficiencies: As an ETF, WSGE is structured to minimize capital gains distributions compared to traditional mutual funds. This powerful tax efficiency helps you keep more of your investment returns, making your portfolio work harder over the long term.
  • Economies of Scale: By bundling diverse global exposures and our proprietary strategy into a single vehicle, we achieve significant economies of scale. This approach reduces complexity and overall costs, effectively providing you with institutional-quality management at a lower expense.
  • Uniformity Across Clients: WSGE ensures every client benefits from the exact same research-driven exposure and proprietary factor tilts. This uniformity across clients leads to greater consistency, streamlined execution, and clearer reporting, regardless of account size.
  • Time Savings & Simplicity: The single-fund structure drastically simplifies trade execution, rebalancing, and overall portfolio maintenance. This provides time savings for both our advisory team and you, the client, allowing us to focus more on your comprehensive financial plan, retirement goals, and tax strategies.

Learn More

When you invest in WSGE, you’re accessing the same level of rigorous due diligence that defines Warren Street Wealth Advisors. We meticulously select the fund’s underlying investments, focusing on quality management, low cost, and alignment with our goals.

We are proud to bring this innovative solution to market and look forward to partnering with you on your journey toward long-term capital appreciation.

To learn more about the fund, view the prospectus, and review important disclosures, please visit warrenstreetetf.com.

Phillip Law, CFA

Senior Portfolio Manager, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Important Information

The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information is contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.714.876.6200. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

The Fund is actively-managed and is subject to the risk that the strategy may not produce the intended results. The Fund is new and has a limited operating history to evaluate.

Median 30 Day Spread: is a calculation of Fund’s median bid-ask spread, expressed as a percentage rounded to the nearest hundredth, computed by: identifying the Fund’s national best bid and national best offer as of the end of each 10 second interval during each trading day of the last 30 calendar days; dividing the difference between each such bid and offer by the midpoint of the national best bid and national best offer; and identifying the median of those values.

Basis Points (bps): A unit of measure used in quoting yields, changes in yields or differences between yields. One basis point is equal to 0.01%, or one one-hundredth of a percent of yield and 100 basis points equals 1%.

Equity Investing Risk. An investment in the Fund involves risks similar to those of investing in any fund holding equity securities, such as market fluctuations, changes in interest rates and perceived trends in stock prices. The values of equity securities could decline generally or could underperform other investments. In addition, securities may decline in value due to factors affecting a specific issuer, market or securities markets generally.

Fixed-Income Risk. The market value of fixed-income securities will change in response to interest rate changes and other factors, such as changes in the effective maturities and credit ratings of fixed-income investments. During periods of falling interest rates, the values of outstanding fixed-income securities and related financial instruments generally rise. Conversely, during periods of rising interest rates, the values of such securities and related financial instruments generally decline. Fixed-income investments are also subject to credit risk.

Large-Capitalization Companies Risk. Large-capitalization companies may trail the returns of the overall stock market. Large-capitalization stocks tend to go through cycles of doing better – or worse – than the stock market in general. These periods have, in the past, lasted for as long as several years.

Mid-Capitalization Companies Risk. Investing in securities of mid-capitalization companies involves greater risk than customarily is associated with investing in larger, more established companies. These companies’ securities may be more volatile and less liquid than those of more established companies. Often mid-capitalization companies and the industries in which they focus are still evolving and, as a result, they may be more sensitive to changing market conditions.

Depositary Receipt Risk. ADRs and GDRs are generally subject to the risks of investing directly in foreign securities and, in some cases, there may be less information available about the underlying issuers than would be the case with a direct investment in the foreign issuer. ADRs are U.S. dollar-denominated receipts representing shares of foreign-based corporations. GDRs are similar to ADRs but are shares of foreign-based corporations generally issued by international banks in one or more markets around the world.

Risk of Investing in Other ETFs. Because the Fund may invest in Underlying ETFs, the Fund’s investment performance is impacted by the investment performance of the selected Underlying ETFs. An investment in the Fund is subject to the risks associated with the Underlying ETFs that then-currently comprise the Fund’s portfolio. At times, certain of the segments of the market represented by the Fund’s Underlying ETFs may be out of favor and underperform other segments.

Focus Investing Risk. The Fund seeks to hold the stocks of approximately 40 companies. As a result, the Fund invests a high percentage of its assets in a small number of companies, which may add to Fund volatility.

Foreign Investment Risk. Returns on investments in foreign securities could be more volatile than, or trail the returns on U.S. securities. Investments in or exposures to foreign securities are subject to special risks,  including differences in information available about issuers of securities and investor protection standards. In addition, foreign securities denominated in other currencies could decline due to changes in local currency.

Factor-Based Investing Risk. There can be no assurance that the factor-based investment selection process employed by the Sub-Adviser will enhance the Fund’s performance. Exposure to the different investment cycles identified by the Sub-Adviser may detract from the Fund’s performance in some market environments.

ETFs may trade at a premium or discount to their net asset value. ETF shares may only be redeemed at NAV by authorized participants in large creation units. There can be no guarantee that an active trading market for shares will exist. The trading of shares may incur brokerage.

This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. We make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein including third-party data sources. The views expressed are as of the publication date and subject to change at any time. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication without express written permission. References to other funds should not to be interpreted as an offer or recommendation of these securities.

An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus.

Shares of the Funds Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC serve as the Sub-advisers to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC. Learn more about PINE Distributors LLC at FINRA’s BrokerCheck.

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