Decoding the AI Hype: How Today’s Market Compares to the Dot-Com Bubble

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You’ve likely seen headlines comparing today’s AI-driven market to the late-1990s dot-com era. We take those comparisons seriously. This note outlines what’s different today, what still deserves caution, and, most importantly, how we’re positioning your strategy to hold up across a range of outcomes.1

Where Valuations Stand

Stock prices have climbed, and by simple measures of “price versus earnings,” the market looks more expensive than its long-term average. That’s a reason for discipline. However, it’s also true that the broad market remains below the most extreme levels reached in the late 1990s. You can see this in the valuation charts that track the relationship between prices and earnings over time.2

What’s Different From Dot‑Com Era

Back then, Barron’s magazine cover story in March 2000, called “Burning Up,” reported that 74% of 207 publicly traded internet companies had “negative cash flows” and at least 51 of those companies were projected to run out of money in the next 12 months. In contrast, today the largest parts of the market are producing real earnings, and overall profit margins across the major U.S. index remain above their five-year average. That doesn’t remove risk, but it does mean prices are supported by business results that we didn’t see from some companies in the dot-com cycle. FactSet’s latest quarterly review provides a good snapshot.3

AI Isn’t Just a Story—There’s Heavy Investment Behind It

A big reason certain companies have led is the build-out of the “plumbing” for AI: data centers, chips, software, and power. You can see this in government data, which shows manufacturing construction near record highs, much of it related to chip facilities, and in rising business spending on information-processing equipment and software. Those are dollars going into real plants, servers, and tools that support future productivity.4,5

Real Fundamentals – But Are AI Profits a Distant Dream?

Today’s AI landscape, where players boast robust business models and real fundamentals stemming from their core businesses, still is not without questions. While fortress balance sheets, resilient revenue, and strong earnings growth remain in place, the central point becomes: does the uncertain return on investment for AI justify the existing valuation levels, even if they aren’t as extreme as the Dotcom era? 

We have to remember that many of today’s leading AI companies still look expensive based on profits they made last year. Meanwhile, the forward looking bull-argument rests entirely on whether their earnings will grow to meet the evergrowing mountain of expectations. 

Intertwining Illusions of Growth

Beyond the frothy valuations, the AI hyperscaler ecosystem can feel like an Ouroboros (i.e.,  a snake that eats its own head). Okay, maybe that’s a bit extreme. However, it doesn’t take away from the increasingly circular dance of chipmakers, cloud providers, and foundational AI companies increasingly investing in one another.

Take for example, Microsoft’s $13billion investment in OpenAi in exchange for OpenAI agreeing to purchase $250 billion in Azure cloud services over the next decade. Microsoft is relying on OpenAI to find real, external customers to honor commitments in due time. 

However, readers should ask – even if OpenAI succeeds in building an Artificial Generative Intelligence (AGI), will there be enough downstream demand for its products and services (especially if AI is displacing jobs)? Or will the primary customer base for AGI simply be the same tech giants who funded its creation? With more interdependence, one setback amongst one of these players could ripple across the entire industry. 

Put simply, today’s “booming” AI revenue isn’t necessarily from new, organic customers with demand for AI services – it’s an internal recycling of investment capital that creates an illusion of growth where economic profit from external customers remains largely hypothetical. While long-term prospects for AI remain strong and we aren’t predicting a bubble, does being invested in an “expensive,” concentrated space predicated on nascent technologies warrant a closer look?  We think it does.

How We’re Managing Your Strategy

That brings us to AI and concentration levels in US Markets. While we’re not sounding alarm bells or declaring an “AI Bubble,” we do recognize concentrated exposure in US Markets (and especially to AI) presents vulnerabilities. That’s why we continue to build adequately diversified portfolios that not only invest around the globe, but also across asset classes such as bonds, gold, and commodities. Recently, we’ve performed a partial rebalance of our market-cap weighted S&P 500 holdings (heavily concentrated to AI) towards US companies with stronger balance sheets and profitability (i.e., “quality” characteristics). Ultimately, we believe we’re in a state where diversifying our client’s sources of “risk” will be prudent for meeting their long-term goals.

If you’d like to meet and discuss how your portfolio is positioned for both stronger and more challenging environments, please give us a call to schedule a meeting.9,10

Bottom line, your portfolio is being actively managed with vigilance and care, and we’re always here if you’d like to discuss further.

Phillip Law, CFA

Senior Portfolio Manager, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Sources:

1. Insights.com, October 08, 2025. “This Is How the AI Bubble Bursts” https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts Yale Insights

2. Yardeni.com, 2025. “Stock Market P/E Ratios“ https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/ Yardeni Research

The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged index that is considered representative of the overall U.S. stock market. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. The return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. And shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The term “Magnificent 7” refers to a group of seven influential companies in the S&P 500, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta Platforms.

The S&P MidCap 400 is a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index is designed to measure the performance of 400 mid-sized companies,

The S&P SmallCap 600 is a benchmark for small-cap companies. The index is designed to track companies that meet inclusion criteria, which include liquidity and financial viability.

3. FactSet.com, October 31, 2025. “Earnings Insight” https://www.factset.com/earningsinsight factset.com

4. Fred.StLouisFed.org, September 25, 2025. “Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing (TLMFGCONS) (manufacturing construction near record highs)” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCONS FRED

5. Fred.StLouisFed.org, September 25, 2025. “Private fixed investment in information processing equipment and software” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A679RC1Q027SBEA FRED

6. FederalReserve.gov, October 29, 2025. “Statement” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251029a.htm Federal Reserve

7. Reuters.com, October 29, 2025. “Fed to end balance-sheet reduction on Dec 1, 2025; cuts rates by 0.25%” https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/fed-end-balance-sheet-reduction-december-1-2025-10-29/ Reuters

8. Bloomberg.com, September 30, 2025. “What a US Government Shutdown Means for Markets” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-09-30/what-a-us-government-shutdown-means-for-markets Bloomberg 

9. Corporate.Vanguard.com, 2025. “Vanguard’s Principles for Investing Success” https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/vanguards_principles_for_investing_success.pdf Vanguard

10. Morningstar.com, April 1, 2025. “Q1’s Biggest Lesson for Investors: Diversification Works” https://www.morningstar.com/markets/q1s-biggest-lesson-investors-diversification-works

Your Year-End Financial Planning Checklist

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As the year draws to a close, it’s the perfect time to review your financial situation and set yourself up for a strong start in the new year. Year-end financial planning can help you optimize your tax situation, review your investment performance, and make sure you’re on track to meet your long-term goals.

Here’s a checklist to guide you through the process:

1. Maximize Your Retirement Contributions:

  • 401(k) or 403(b): If you haven’t already, now is the time to max out your employer-sponsored retirement plan. For 2025, the contribution limit is $23,500, with an additional $7,500 catch-up contribution for those age 50 and over. For those aged 60 to 63, you can contribute up to $11,250 as a “super catch-up”, for a total of $34,750.
  • IRA: Contribute to your traditional or Roth IRA. The 2025 limit is $7,000, with a $1,000 catch-up contribution for those age 50 and over. Remember, you have until the tax-filing deadline in April 2026 to make these contributions. 
  • Solo 401(k) or SEP IRA: If you’re a small business owner or self-employed, consider making contributions to these plans to reduce your taxable income.

2. Review Your Investment Portfolio:

  • Rebalance: Check your asset allocation to ensure it aligns with your risk tolerance and financial goals. If one asset class has significantly outperformed, you may need to sell some of it and buy into an underperforming one to get back to your target allocation.
  • Tax-Loss Harvesting: This is a strategy that involves selling investments at a loss to offset capital gains and up to $3,000 of ordinary income. This can be a great way to reduce your tax bill, but be mindful of the wash-sale rule. If you are a client of ours, we do this automatically.

3. Optimize Your Tax Situation:

  • Charitable Giving: Donations to qualified charities are tax-deductible. Consider making year-end contributions, or even donating appreciated stock to avoid capital gains tax.
  • Flexible Spending Account (FSA): Use up the funds in your FSA before the year-end deadline. You could lose any money left in the account.
  • Health Savings Account (HSA): If you have an HSA, you can contribute up to $4,300 for an individual or $8,550 for a family in 2025. HSAs offer a triple tax advantage: tax-deductible contributions, tax-free growth, and tax-free withdrawals for qualified medical expenses.
  • Deductible Expenses: Gather receipts and documentation for potential tax deductions, such as property taxes, mortgage interest, and medical expenses.

4. Review Your Estate Plan:

  • Wills and Trusts: Ensure your will and trust documents are up to date and reflect your current wishes.
  • Beneficiaries: Check the beneficiary designations on your retirement accounts, life insurance policies, and annuities. These designations supersede your will, so it’s crucial to make sure they’re accurate.
  • Power of Attorney: Confirm that you have a durable power of attorney and a healthcare proxy in place.

5. Look Ahead to the New Year:

  • Budget Review: Analyze your spending from the past year to identify areas where you can save more.
  • Financial Goals: Revisit your short-term and long-term financial goals and make a plan to achieve them.
  • Meet with Your Financial Advisor: A comprehensive year-end review is the perfect opportunity to discuss your progress and make any necessary adjustments with your financial advisor.

By taking the time to review these key areas, you’ll not only gain a clearer picture of your current financial health but also lay the groundwork for a successful and prosperous new year.

Veronica Cabral

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

What Should I Do With an Inherited IRA?

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Inheritances come in all shapes and sizes, whether an heirloom left to you by a loved one or a life-changing financial windfall. Regardless of the form it takes, figuring out what to do next can be a crucial question. This is especially true with inherited IRAs, which can be very well funded, but also come with very specific and complicated rules you must follow to unlock the assets within them. 

This guide will walk you through the basics of what to do. From there, we can review your personal situation together to help ensure you don’t overlook anything important.

What Kind of Beneficiary Are You?

When you inherit an IRA, the very first step is to figure out what type of beneficiary you are. Here’s why: There are three main types, and the rules around key issues like withdrawal requirements will differ depending on which type you are. 

You will fall into one of the following categories:

Designated beneficiary. You are the person named as the beneficiary on the retirement account itself.

Eligible designated beneficiary. You are a designated beneficiary who is also any one of the following:

  • Spouse or minor child of the account owner.
  • Someone not more than 10 years younger than the account owner. (Someone whose age is equal to or greater than the age of the account owner minus 10.)
  • Someone who meets the IRS’s definition of chronically ill or disabled.

Nondesignated beneficiary. You are not named as the beneficiary on the retirement account itself, but you may inherit the IRA through a will or estate.

Another important step you might have to take early: If the owner of the account you inherit was taking required minimum distributions (RMDs)—the mandatory withdrawals from tax-deferred retirement account that start when the account owner reaches age 73—you’ll need to make that withdrawal before the end of the current calendar year. If you don’t, you’ll risk triggering a 25% penalty on the amount of that distribution. 

Options for Your Inherited IRA

When you inherit an IRA, you have several choices for how to handle that account.

Disclaim it: If for any reason you don’t want to accept the IRA—such as avoiding tax consequences from additional income—you can refuse it by disclaiming it. If you decide to take this route, you must disclaim within nine months of the account owner’s death. The IRA will then be passed to an alternate beneficiary or to the estate.

Take a lump-sum: You can opt to withdraw all the funds of the IRA at once. If it’s a traditional IRA, the IRS will tax the withdrawal as income, which may bump you into a higher tax bracket. If it’s a Roth IRA, the withdrawal is tax-free, but the account must be at least five years old to avoid incurring a 10% penalty.

Withdraw assets over time: If you don’t want to take a lump sum, you can keep the assets in an inherited IRA, where they can continue to grow tax deferred. This is where things get a bit more complicated depending on what type of beneficiary you are. 

If you’re a designated beneficiary (but not an eligible designated beneficiary), you must empty the inherited IRA within 10 years to avoid penalties on undistributed amounts. The clock starts ticking a year after the original owner’s death. So if the original owner died in 2024, you’d have until December 31, 2034 to empty the account. Also, if the original account owner had already started taking RMDs, you’ll have to continue taking them based on your own life expectancy each year to avoid penalties. (Don’t worry about calculating your own life expectancy. The IRS does that for you through its life expectancy tables, and we can work with you to make sure you get it right.)

If you’re an eligible designated beneficiary, you generally aren’t subject to the 10-year rule. You’ll have to take RMDs, but you can calculate the amount based on your own life expectancy and hold onto the inherited IRA indefinitely. An exception to this is minor children. For them, the 10-year rule will kick in at age 21.

If you’re a nondesignated beneficiary inheriting the IRA through a will or an estate, your requirements are determined by the account owner’s age. If the account owner hadn’t reached the age where distributions were required, you must empty the account within five years. If the account owner had begun taking RMDs, you will continue to take RMDs based on the same timeline.

Transferring funds to your own IRA: If you are a surviving spouse, you have the option to roll the assets from an inherited IRA into an IRA in your own name. If the original account owner hadn’t taken an RMD for the current year, you’ll have to take that RMD on their behalf before moving the funds.

Let Us Simplify the Process for You

Inheriting an IRA, like receiving any inheritance, can feel both meaningful and overwhelming. It’s a reminder that someone cared for you, but it comes with important financial decisions. 

Making the right choices around an inherited IRA can help you avoid big tax bills and penalties. But of all the things there are to know about inherited IRAs, the most important is that you don’t have to figure those choices out alone. We’re here to help you understand your options and move forward with a tax-efficient strategy that supports your financial goals. 

Veronica Cabral

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Introducing Our New Client Service Associate, Nicole Pepper

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We are excited to introduce you to the newest member of the Warren Street team, Nicole Pepper! As a Client Service Associate, Nicole is a key part of our commitment to providing exceptional support to our clients. 

We recently sat down with her to learn more about her role, what motivates her, and how she’s an invaluable asset to our team and, most importantly, to you.

In your role as Client Service Associate, how do you assist Warren Street’s clients?

I support clients with any questions and transactional needs they might have. This also means I get to know clients and walk alongside them as they reach their financial goals, which is fun to see.

As part of the Operations team, I also think of the Warren Street team as a client. It’s my job to help everyone be more effective, whether that be through communication, continuous improvement projects, or just taking tasks off someone’s plate. All of which, ultimately serve our clients.

What impact do you hope to make at Warren Street?

How does Warren Street align with your personal values?

Warren Street tends to stand out and, as I like to say, “they come by it honest.” Everyone is incredibly intelligent, good at what they do, and sincere in how they do it. It creates an effusive, unfeigned environment where everyone has license to be the best version of themselves.

This aligns with my values on so many levels, but especially my faith-driven belief that goodness is personified in each and every one of us, and the sum total can be incredibly effective. 

Who or what motivates you?

Family. I constantly strive to be as kind, as grateful, and as hard working as them. It’s not just one particular person either – my aunts, uncles, parents, grandparents, and in-laws are all so big-hearted and down to earth.

The older I get, the more I recognize how much good they put into the world just by being themselves. It motivates me to continue the legacy, so to speak.

What do you enjoy doing outside of work?

I enjoy cooking, reading, and just about anything that involves being outside. I also love spending time with close friends and family. Some of my favorite memories are conversations over the dinner table, or the board games we played after.

What are three fun facts about you?

  1. As a kid, I went to the library every week, and to this day, I still check out/read 100+ books a year.
  2. I speak fluent Spanish.
  3. In high school, I was voted “Most Dedicated”.

We are thrilled to have Nicole on board. Her dedication to client service and her passion for helping others makes her an excellent addition to the Warren Street family. Please join us in giving her a warm welcome!

Jennifer Battles

Director of Operations, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Should I Be Using a Health Savings Account?

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Choosing a health care plan at work can be a bit of a headache—charts comparing premiums, copays and deductibles isn’t exactly light reading. One option you might have encountered in this process is the high-deductible health plan (HDHP). The name might sound intimidating. After all, who really wants to pay high deductibles? But when paired with a health savings account (HSA), an HDHP can be a powerful tool to help you save for your health care now and your future.

What is an HDHP?

An HDHP is a type of health insurance plan that comes with lower monthly premiums but higher out-of-pocket costs. In other words, you’ll pay less each month, but you’ll be on the hook for more when you actually visit a doctor. These plans shift more financial risk to you in exchange for upfront savings—and they often come with access to an HSA.

An HSA allows you to set aside pre-tax money to pay for qualified medical expenses like doctor visits, prescriptions, dental care and vision services. Unlike a flexible spending account (FSA), which is “use it or lose it,” the money in an HSA is yours to keep. It rolls over from year to year, stays with you if you change jobs and often has investment options.

What makes HSAs especially appealing are their triple tax benefits:

  • Tax-deductible contributions.
  • Tax-free growth on investments inside the HSA.
  • Tax-free withdrawals at any time if the money is used for qualified medical expenses.

These features make HSAs one of the most tax-efficient savings vehicles available. But there’s another way to get more from your HSA: It can serve as a powerful retirement savings vehicle. 

Should You Use a High-Deductible Health Plan?

Before we get to the benefits of an HSA as an investment vehicle, how do you decide whether to use an HDHP in the first place? Choosing between a traditional plan and an HDHP depends on a few key factors.

First, compare the total potential cost under each plan. That means looking at monthly premiums, deductibles, coinsurance and out-of-pocket maximums. HDHPs typically offer significantly lower monthly premiums but come with higher deductibles. If you’re generally healthy and don’t expect to need much medical care, this tradeoff could work in your favor.

But be honest with yourself about your cash flow. If you had a sudden medical emergency, would you be able to cover the high out-of-pocket costs until your insurance kicks in? For people with chronic health conditions or frequent doctor visits, a traditional plan might offer more predictable costs.

Using an HSA as a Retirement Account

Once you’ve maxed out your traditional retirement accounts, an HSA becomes an excellent next stop. HSA contribution limits are $4,300 for self-only coverage and $8,550 for family coverage in 2025. You can leave that money in cash or invest it. You can, of course, use it to pay for qualified out-of-pocket medical expenses at any time. But you can also leave it in the account untouched, letting it grow and enjoy the power of tax-advantaged compounding—just as you would with an IRA or 401(k). 

Health care is one of the biggest expenses in retirement. So building a tax-free fund dedicated to future medical needs makes a lot of sense. According to recent estimates, a 65-year-old retiring in 2024 can expect to spend around $165,000 on health care in retirement—and that number is only expected to rise.

Here’s the kicker: When you turn 65, you aren’t limited to using your HSA for medical expenses. You can make withdrawals for non-medical expenses, and these will simply be taxed as income, just like withdrawals from a traditional IRA or 401(k). In short, your HSA can function like a traditional retirement account with the added perk of tax-free withdrawals for medical expenses at any age.

Your HSA as Part of Your Investment Strategy

Your HSA is a financial asset, whether it’s sitting in cash or invested in the market. As such, it can play an important role in your strategies for long-term asset allocation, diversification and rebalancing. Managed well, it can contribute meaningfully to your future financial security.

You can manage your HSA investments on your own. Or, depending on your HSA provider, we may be able to manage the assets within the account on your behalf. Even if direct management isn’t possible, we’re here to help you evaluate your options, choose appropriate investments and determine how best to incorporate your HSA into your long-term plan.

If you’re not sure whether an HDHP and HSA are right for you, let’s talk. Together, we can evaluate your health needs, cash flow and retirement goals to determine the best path forward.

Bryan Cassick, MBA, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Rate Cut vs. Reality: Making Sense of Powell’s Mixed Signals

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Investors finally got the interest rate cut they were waiting for last month, but comments from the Federal Reserve Chair have some of them scratching their heads. Let’s see if we can make sense of these mixed signals.

Jerome Powell Brings Investors Up Short

The Fed reduced its target federal funds rate by 0.25% on September 17. Rate cuts tend to make equity investors optimistic: They figure lower interest rates will reduce borrowing costs, goosing economic activity and hopefully boosting corporate earnings and stock prices. This time around, investors may think the Fed cut helps validate the S&P 500’s nearly 35% gain since it bottomed in early April. 

Then, a week after cutting rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell uttered these words:

“By many measures…equity prices are fairly highly valued.”

Powell’s seemingly innocuous statement sounded like a loud needle scratch to some investors. Fed chairs don’t often comment on stock prices, so the fact that he chose this moment to highlight steep valuations raised questions. 

Is Powell—a renowned economist with more and better information than just about anybody—saying stocks are too highly valued? Are prices about to drop? Should you sell before it’s too late?

Are Stocks Expensive Right Now?

On the surface, it’s hard to quibble with Powell’s take. The most common way to gauge the broad stock market’s valuation is to look at the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500. And it’s high: As of September 26, the S&P 500’s P/E was 20% above the average of the past 10 years.1  

But the topic deserves a little more context. Certain parts of the stock market are driving up the average, so it’s probably more accurate to say that some equity prices are fairly highly valued. 

Specifically, tech stocks have risen on investor optimism about the potential for AI to drive future earnings. The tech sector had a P/E ratio over 30 as of October 1, compared to about 23 for the S&P 500 as a whole. By contrast, the energy, financials, health care, materials and utilities sectors all had P/Es in the teens.2  

Should You Sell When Stocks Are Pricey?

Everybody knows the investing adage “Buy low, sell high.” However, applying this in practice isn’t always straightforward. Fact is, pricey stocks can get more expensive, such that exiting stock positions solely based on valuations can materially harm portfolio outcomes in the short-term. In fact, a study by LPL Financial comparing historical stock market valuation to returns over the next 12 months found “no relationship whatsoever.”3

Just ask another renowned Fed Chair, Alan Greenspan. Almost 30 years ago, he famously described “irrational exuberance” in the stock market—and the S&P 500 surged more than 100% over the following four years.4

While valuations are a poor short-term timing tool, it’s true that high valuations can temper future returns.5 To address this, we have recently implemented a rebalancing strategy across our client accounts. This essential process automatically takes profits from assets that have become highly valued and redirects those funds to areas we believe have better forward-looking potential, ensuring your allocation stays on target.

Run-ups in the prices of some investments can throw off your asset allocation—the percentage of your portfolio you have devoted to specific investment types. That’s why we periodically rebalance your portfolio, resetting your allocations to your long-term targets. This process automatically reduces how much you have in assets that have gained the most and redirects those resources toward assets that have lagged.

Your financial plan is designed to weather the short term so you can focus on the long term. But if there’s ever a news story that gives you pause, you can always reach out to us to help put it into perspective.  

Phillip Law, CFA

Senior Portfolio Manager, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Sources:

  1. FactSet Earnings Insight, September 26, 2025. P/E based on forward earnings.
  2. Yardeni Research, October 2, 2025. P/Es based on forward earnings.
  3. LPL Financial, “Valuations Aren’t Great Timing Tools,” March 6, 2024.
  4. “Back in the ‘90s a Fed chief warned about ‘irrational exuberance’ in the markets. Stocks rose 105% over the next four years.” Fortune, September 30, 2025
  5. LSEG, “Do valuations correlate to long-term returns?” January 23, 2025

Financial Planning for Open Enrollment: A Guide to Making Smart Choices

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Open enrollment is your annual opportunity to review and select your employee benefits for the upcoming year. While it might seem like just another task on your to-do list, the choices you make now can have a significant impact on your health and finances. Don’t simply “roll over” last year’s elections without a review. A proactive approach will ensure your benefits align with your needs and goals. 

Analyzing Your Health Insurance Options

Start by assessing your current situation. Think about your health needs from the past year: how many doctor’s visits did you have? What were your prescription costs? Do you anticipate any major life changes, such as getting married or having a baby? These factors will help you choose the right plan.

Understanding Key Terms

Before diving into plan specifics, it’s crucial to understand a few key terms:

  • Premium: The fixed monthly cost you pay for your insurance plan.
  • Deductible: The amount you pay out of pocket before your insurance coverage begins.
  • Copay: A fixed amount you pay for a doctor’s visit or prescription after your deductible is met.
  • Coinsurance: A percentage of costs you pay for covered services after the deductible is met.
  • Out-of-Pocket Maximum: The maximum amount you will pay in a year before the plan covers 100% of costs.

Comparing Plan Types: PPO vs. HDHP

The two most common types of health plans are a Preferred Provider Organization (PPO) and a High-Deductible Health Plan (HDHP).

  • A PPO typically has a lower deductible but higher premiums. It also offers more flexibility for seeing out-of-network doctors. This type of plan is generally best for people who use a lot of medical services, as the costs are more predictable.
  • An HDHP has a higher deductible but lower premiums. While you’ll pay more upfront for care, this type of plan makes you eligible for a Health Savings Account (HSA). An HDHP is often a great choice for generally healthy individuals or those who can comfortably afford the higher upfront costs if a major health event were to occur.

To help with your decision, compare the total estimated annual cost of each plan. For example, calculate the premiums plus potential out-of-pocket costs for a year with no major health events versus a year with a major surgery. This simple exercise can reveal which plan offers the most financial sense for your situation.

Maximizing Your Tax-Advantaged Accounts

In addition to health insurance, open enrollment is your chance to enroll in or update contributions to valuable tax-advantaged accounts.

Flexible Spending Accounts (FSA)

An FSA allows you to use pre-tax dollars for qualified medical or dependent care expenses, which lowers your taxable income. The key rule to remember is “use it or lose it”—funds typically do not roll over from one year to the next. Carefully estimate your upcoming year’s expenses to avoid forfeiting any money.

Health Savings Accounts (HSA)

An HSA is a powerful financial tool with a triple tax advantage:

  1. Contributions are pre-tax.
  2. Funds grow tax-free.
  3. Withdrawals for qualified medical expenses are tax-free.

Unlike an FSA, an HSA is portable, meaning the account belongs to you even if you change jobs. This makes it an excellent long-term savings tool. After age 65, you can withdraw funds for any reason without penalty, although non-medical withdrawals are subject to income tax. Remember, an HSA is only available if you are enrolled in an HDHP.

Reviewing Other Important Benefits

Don’t stop at health insurance; open enrollment is the perfect time to review your other benefits.

Retirement Contributions

Check your retirement contributions to your 401(k) or 403(b). If your employer offers a matching contribution, be sure you’re contributing at least enough to get the full match—it’s free money! Consider increasing your contribution rate by at least 1% each year. Small, consistent increases can make a huge difference over time.

Life and Disability Insurance

  • Life Insurance: Review your coverage needs based on your dependents and debts. Your employer may provide basic coverage, but you might need supplemental, voluntary coverage to fully protect your loved ones.
  • Disability Insurance: This benefit protects your income if you are unable to work due to illness or injury. Review your short-term and long-term disability options to ensure your income is protected.

Final Steps and Action Plan

Making your benefit selections requires a few final steps to ensure you’re fully prepared.

  1. Check Beneficiaries: In case of a major life change like a marriage or divorce, update the beneficiaries on all your accounts (retirement, life insurance) to ensure your assets go to the right people.
  2. Gather Your Information: Have all your plan documents, a list of your regular doctors, and an estimate of last year’s medical expenses ready. This information will help you make a more accurate and informed choice.
  3. Make Your Choices and Submit: Be mindful of the deadline and submit your final selections on time.

By taking the time to review your options and make informed decisions, you can ensure your benefits package is working for you and your financial well-being. Be sure to reach out to your advisor to discuss any of these items in more detail.

Justin D. Rucci, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

The Power of Purpose in Retirement

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Retirement is a major life shift, one that impacts more than just your schedule. It can reshape your sense of identity, daily habits and even your health. In fact, research has shown that retirement can raise the risk of heart disease and other medical issues by up to 40%. The reason? Experts point to a loss of purpose and reduced social connection, both of which can take a toll on mental and physical well-being.

Without a plan for how to spend your time meaningfully, the transition can bring unexpected emotional challenges.

The Risks of Unstructured Retirement

Many retirees begin this new chapter with a “honeymoon phase”—a period marked by the novelty of free time, relaxation or long-awaited travel plans. But this initial high can eventually fade.

When the excitement of sleeping in and checking items off the bucket list wears off, retirees can find themselves facing unexpected emotional challenges. Common struggles include boredom, loss of routine, identity shifts and social isolation. In fact, 24% of older adults are considered to be socially isolated. Isolation can also have a ripple effect on health: It’s associated with a 50% increase in risk of developing dementia and increased risk of premature mortality.  

Designing a Retirement with Purpose

To avoid some of the potential pitfalls of an unstructured retirement, it’s important to think carefully—and proactively—about purpose. What do you want this next phase of life to look and feel like? Beyond financial planning, consider how you’ll meet the deeper needs your pre-retirement life—including work and raising kids—may have fulfilled: structure, identity, accomplishment, social connection and a sense of meaning.

What brings you pleasure and meaning? What have you always wanted to try or learn? Pursuing these activities can provide purpose and help ensure retirement’s not just a long vacation, but a rewarding chapter of your life.

Feeling stuck here? Try asking close friends or family what they see light you up. Often, others can reflect back passions or strengths that are hard to see on your own. 

Staying Connected and Active

Relationships and physical routines matter more than ever when you retire. Staying active, both physically and socially, offers measurable health benefits. Regular physical activity lowers risks, including the likelihood of dementia, heart disease, stroke and eight types of cancer. 

People-centered activity is important, too. Look for ways to stay engaged, whether through volunteering, mentoring, part-time work, creative pursuits or community involvement. Older volunteers, aged 55 and up, who gave 100 hours or more each year were two-thirds less likely to report poor health than non-volunteers. 

Spending more time with family is a high priority for many retirees and can be a great way to fulfill social needs. But make sure that vision is shared. Open conversations with loved ones about time together, expectations and boundaries can help align plans and avoid disappointment down the road.

The Retirement Identity Shift

In many ways, it’s hard to define what retirement is. After all, it’s not a single moment but a series of transitions. For instance, rather than an abrupt shift to not working at all, you may consider bridge employment—usually part-time work in a temporary position or as a consultant in your field or in a different industry. This can offer a gradual shift into retirement, providing continued income and engagement as you adjust. 

As your vision for retirement evolves, keep us in the loop. We’d love to hear what you’re planning—and we’re here to help ensure your financial strategy stays aligned with your goals.

Emily Balmages, CFP®

Director of Financial Planning, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

A Warm Welcome to Our New Tax Administrator, Hillary Curtis

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Warren Street is growing, and we’re thrilled to introduce the newest member of our Next Street Tax team, Hillary Curtis! Located in South Carolina, Hillary is our new Tax Administrator, and she’s excited to get to know our clients and help support their financial needs.

For those of you who have been following along, we’ve been using this space to make virtual introductions to our team members and the roles they play in serving you. This time, we’re giving you a deeper look into who Hillary is and how she’ll be an asset to our team and our clients.

How do you assist Next Street Tax’s clients in your role as Tax Administrator?

I’m the first point of contact for our tax clients as they begin the filing process. My job is to ensure clients understand the services they’ll receive, the process from start to finish, and to provide status updates along the way. My goal is to make sure clients always know where they are in the filing process.

What impact do you hope to make at Next Street Tax?

I want to build strong relationships with our clients. I’m excited to grow with the company and to do my part to make sure our clients feel supported throughout their tax journey.

How does Next Street Tax align with your personal values?

Next Street Tax creates an environment that provides both balance and growth. These attributes are important to me in my personal life. I am always looking for ways to grow, and I believe in balance in every aspect of my life.

Who or what motivates you?

I’m motivated by the person I was yesterday. My goal is to always be a better version of myself than I was the day before.

What do you enjoy doing outside of work?

I enjoy going to concerts, catching up with friends and family, and traveling whenever I can.

What are three fun facts about you?

1. I love reading motivational and finance books.

2. I like to test my luck on PrizePicks—I’ve only won twice!

3. My very first concert was Sevyn Streeter, and it’s what started my love for live music.

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We’re so happy to have Hillary on the team. Her commitment to client communication and personal growth makes her an incredible addition to Next Street Tax. She will be working directly with our Warren Street clients who use our tax services, so you may be hearing from her soon!

Jennifer Battles

Director of Operations, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Veronica Cabral’s Path to Becoming a CFP® and Lead Advisor

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Veronica Cabral, CFP® has been with our company since its early days in 2016, growing alongside the firm and making an impact at every stage of her career. From starting as a Client Service Associate to serving as Director of Operations and Chief Compliance Officer, Veronica’s dedication has been unwavering. Now, she’s taking another exciting step forward—having recently passed her CFP® exam and assuming the role of Lead Advisor. 

We are thrilled to celebrate this major milestone in her career and the expertise she brings to our clients. If you missed her original “Meet the Team” post, you can check it out here. 

In this interview, we dive deeper into Veronica’s new role and her vision as a Lead Advisor. Enjoy!

You’ve been with the company since 2016, starting as a Client Service Associate. How has your journey shaped your approach to financial advising?

Getting to join Warren Street so early in my career and going through so many different roles, I’ve been able to get a deeper understanding of each part of our process which has given me a really strong foundation now that I get to work with clients directly on their financial plans.

What inspired you to pursue the CFP® certification, and how do you think it will impact your work with clients?

I’ve always felt that working with clients directly and getting to build strong relationships was what I was most passionate about. When the opportunity came up for me to become an advisor, pursuing the CFP® was something I knew would be the right next move. Not only preparing for the exam, but going through the Personal Financial Planning Certificate Program at UCLA Extension gave me a really good understanding of each facet of the financial planning process. Ultimately, knowing that it would make me a better financial planner for our clients is what motivated me and I think the knowledge I got through the program and exam will help me be the best advisor I can be for our clients.

What excites you most about stepping into the Lead Advisor role, and how do you envision this next chapter of your career?

What excites me the most about my new role is getting to know our clients on a deeper level and helping them meet their financial goals. It’s really rewarding seeing our clients meet their goals and helping them check off really important things off their list.

You also run the Instagram page @veemakescents, where you share financial tips and insights. What are your goals with this platform?

I started @veemakescents almost 8 years ago with the goal of helping young women understand money more. I grew the platform to over 50,000 followers across different channels and then life got really busy. Between navigating a global pandemic, getting married, buying our first home, welcoming our son into the world, and then going back to school to pursue the CFP® , I took a step back from the platform. I hope to get back to posting soon, especially now that I have more in depth knowledge on financial planning. My goal still remains the same – to empower young women to take control over their finances. 

As a bilingual advisor, how has being fluent in Spanish helped you build relationships with clients?

Speaking two languages is a gift especially when it comes to my career. Ever since I worked at a bank as a teller in college, speaking Spanish opened opportunities for me and allowed me to help more clients. Speaking Spanish allows me to help a diverse set of clients and the most important thing is allowing me to build trust with them. Language barriers can make things difficult especially when it comes to finances and I love that I get to help these clients navigate something so important. 

What advice would you give to others preparing for the CFP® exam to earn their certification?

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Once again, congratulations to Veronica on this incredible achievement. We’re proud to have her leading the way and can’t wait to see the positive impact she’ll continue to make for our clients and our firm.

Jennifer Battles

Director of Operations, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.