Are We Done Yet?

/in , , , /by

February 12, 2016 by Marcia Clark, CFA

On January 26, 2015, I wrote an article questioning the relationship between falling oil prices, slowing Chinese GDP, and the precipitous decline in the U.S. stock markets. I counseled readers to take a breath, that the stock market turmoil was overdone and the U.S. economy was secure.

Shortly after my article, the S&P 500 index rebounded from 1903.63 to 1949.24 as on January 29th the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced 4th quarter GDP growth at a modest 0.7%, slightly below analyst expectations of 0.8%.

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product and Civilian Unemployment Rate

 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product and Civilian Unemployment Rate

Stock Markets Stabilize with 4th Quarter GDP Report

Why did the stock market react so well to such modest GDP growth? Perhaps because, if you look deeper into the GDP components, the slow growth was primarily due to weak exports and low oil prices, while consumer spending and residential construction remained strong. When considered in light of positive trends in disposable income and job growth, investors seemed fairly content with the 4th GDP results. Concern about specific sectors of the economy are well-founded, however, as low oil prices are indeed causing an increasing number of shale oil drillers to default on their debt obligations. But lenders prepare for this type of risk by diversifying their investments, and there is little evidence that distress in the oil patch will spread throughout the broader economy.

S&P 500 Stock Market Index, February 2015 – February 2016

S&P 500 Stock Market Index, February 2015 - February 2016

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/indexdetails/fi-33.10.!SPX?ocid=INSFIST10

Do Stock Markets Really Predict Economic Recessions?

To twist a common phrase, every silver lining has a cloud, and in the days following the GDP announcement oil prices continued their downward trend and talk of an economic slowdown began to circulate in the financial press. By February 11, the S&P 500 index had plummeted to a low of 1829.08, before recovering a bit to end the week at 1864.78. Clearly, the turmoil was not over!

But does a falling stock market really foretell an economic decline in the U.S.? Let’s take another look at the evidence. The Brookings Institute published an article by George L. Perry on February 2, 2016[i] reviewing the relationship between stock market declines and economic recessions. Mr. Perry concludes that significant stock market declines – say 20% or so – do indeed tend to precede economic downturns. However, more moderate declines in the stock market happen much more frequently than do recessions. And when such declines are accompanied by decent economic figures, the predictive power of the stock market is unreliable.

In fact, the most recent Conference Board Leading Economic Index published January 22 shows a strong positive trend, despite the U.S. stock market being a component of the index. It’s important to note, however, that the index fell slightly in December due to weaker growth in housing and manufacturing. Also of note, the latest Leading Indicator Index does not include January’s stock market decline.

Leading Economic Index as of December 2015

Leading Economic Index as of December 2015

So, Where Do We Go From Here?

As articulated by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen in her testimony to Congress on February 11, the U.S. economy remains on an upward trend at present, though the future is uncertain. On the positive side, employment gains, low interest rates, and falling oil prices provide consumers with more disposable income to support domestic businesses. On the negative side, slowing Chinese and commodity-based economies, combined with the strong dollar, continue to depress U.S. exports.

On balance, I reiterate my earlier advice. CaptionStay strong, hold on tight, and wait for smoother sailing ahead. Investors with a tolerance for volatility might even consider buying into the distressed oil and gas sector.  Be warned, however! A risky endeavor such as this requires an abundance of fundamental analysis and healthy skepticism when forecasting future earnings. Such a venture is best left to the boldest among us with the ability to withstand the choppy voyage ahead.

 

Marcia K. Clark, CFA

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Senior Research Analyst, Wealth Advisor

marcia@warrenstreetwealth.com

[i] http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2016/02/02-stocks-and-the-economy-perry

The Fed Raises Interest Rates… And Bond Markets Yawn

/in , , /by

The Fed Raises Interest Rates… And Bond Markets Yawn By Marcia Clark, CFA, MBA Warren Street Wealth Advisors December 17, 2015 Finally, after months of anticipation, on December 16, 2015 the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee raised the target overnight lending rate from 0.0% to 0.25% – where it has been for nearly a decade […]

Read more

Are You Retiring Within the Next 5 Years?

/in , /by

are you retiring in the next five yearsAre You Retiring Within the Next 5 Years?

What should you focus on as the transition approaches?

Provided by: Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

You can prepare for your retirement transition years before it occurs. In doing so, you can do your best to avoid the kind of financial surprises that tend to upset an unsuspecting new retiree.

 

How much monthly income will you need? Look at your monthly expenses and add them up. (Consider also the trips, adventures and pursuits you have in mind in the near term.) You may end up living on less; that may be acceptable, as your monthly expenses may decline. If your retirement income strategy was conceived a few years ago, revisit it to see if it needs adjusting. As a test, you can even try living on your projected monthly income for 2-3 months prior to retiring.

 

Should you try to go Roth? Many pre-retirees have amassed substantial retirement savings in tax-deferred retirement accounts such as 401(k)s, 403(b)s and traditional IRAs. Distributions from these accounts are taxed as ordinary income. This reality makes some pre-retirees weigh the pros and cons of a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k) conversion for some or all of those assets. You may want to consider the “Roth tradeoff” – being taxed on the amount of retirement savings you convert today in exchange for the ability to take tax-free withdrawals from the Roth IRA or 401(k) tomorrow. (You must be 59½ and have owned that Roth account for at least five years to take tax-free distributions.)1

 

Should you downsize or relocate? Moving to another state may lessen your tax burden. Moving into a smaller home may reduce your monthly expenses. In a perfect world, you would retire without any mortgage debt. If you will still be paying off your home loan in retirement, realize that your monthly income might be lower as you do so. You may want to investigate a refi, but consider that the cost of a refi can offset the potential savings down the line.

 

How conservative should your portfolio be? Even if your retirement savings are substantial, growth investing gives your portfolio the potential to keep pace with or keep ahead of rising consumer prices. Mere gradual inflation has the capability to erode your purchasing power over time. As an example, at 3% inflation what costs $10,000 today will cost more than $24,000 in 2045.2

 

In planning for retirement, the top priority is to build savings; within retirement, the top priority is generating consistent, sufficient income. With that in mind, portfolio assets may be adjusted or reallocated with respect to time: it may be wise to have some risk-averse investments that can provide income in the next few years as well as growth investments geared to income or savings objectives on the long-term horizon.

 

How will you live? There are people who wrap up their careers without much idea of what their day-to-day life will be like once they retire. Some picture an endless Saturday. Others wonder if they will lose their sense of purpose (and self) away from work. Remember that retirement is a beginning. Ask yourself what you would like to begin doing. Think about how to structure your days to do it, and how your day-to-day life could change for the better with the gift of more free time.

 

Many retirees find that their expenses “out of the gate” are larger than they anticipated – more travel and leisure means more money spent. Even so, no business owner or professional wants to enter retirement pinching pennies. If you want to live it up a little yet are worried about drawing down your retirement savings too fast, consider slimming transportation costs (car and gasoline expenses; maybe you could even live car-free), landscaping costs, or other monthly costs that amount to discretionary spending better suited to youth or mid-life.

 

How will you take care of yourself? What kind of health insurance do you have right now? If your company sponsors a group health plan, you may as well get the most out of it (in terms of doctor, dentist and optometrist visits) before you leave the office.

 

If you retire prior to age 65, Medicare will not be there for you. Check and see if your group health plan will extend certain benefits to you when you retire; it may or may not. If you can stay enrolled in it, great; if not, you may have to find new coverage at presumably higher premiums.

 

Even if you retire at 65 or later, Medicare is no panacea. Your out-of-pocket health care expenses could still be substantial with Medicare in place. Long term care is another consideration – if you think you (or your spouse) will need it, should it be funded through existing assets or some form of LTC insurance?

 

Give your retirement strategy a second look as the transition approaches. Review it in the company of the financial professional who helped you create and refine it. An adjustment or two before retirement may be necessary due to life or financial events.

 

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

190 S. Glassell St., Suite 209

Orange, CA 92866

714-876-6200 – office

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

   

Citations.

1 – turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tools/tax-tips/Retirement/The-Tax-Benefits-of-Your-401-k–Plan/INF22614.html [5/7/15]

2 – investopedia.com/articles/markets/042215/best-etfs-inflationary-worries.asp [4/22/15]

 

Why You Should Look for a Registered Investment Advisor

/in , , /by

RIAWhy You Should Look for a Registered Investment Advisor

Standards matter, especially in wealth management.

Provided by: Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

Who should manage significant wealth? In recent years, more and more high net worth households have found their answer to that question: a Registered Investment Advisor.

 

What is the RIA difference? RIAs have a fiduciary duty to act in your best interest. That is a legal obligation, and it is expressed in the investment recommendations the RIA and their representatives make and the advice and guidance they offer. If even the potential for a conflict of interest exists, it must be fully disclosed.1,2

 

Investment brokers are not asked to work by a fiduciary standard, only a suitability standard. Under a suitability standard, a broker is asked to recommend investment products that are “suitable” for a client – an investment that is regarded as appropriate for his or her objectives. An investment conveniently offered by his or her broker might meet that standard – one offered with little or no evaluation of other options, one that may have high fees and bring that broker a relatively large commission.1

 

In fact, the typical investment broker works on a commission basis – a percentage of his or her compensation depends on product sales. Just who ends up paying the broker those commissions? They may be paid by the investment companies involved – or the client. They may not even be mentioned until after the product sale.1

 

In contrast, many RIAs manage the assets of high net worth investors on a fee basis. The management fees usually represent a percentage of invested assets belonging to the client. Hourly or per-project fees may be charged for other services. These fees are disclosed up front. RIAs are not affiliated with brokerage firms, so the potential for brokerage directives coloring the advisor-client relationship is diminished.1,2

 

As the designation implies, an RIA is an investment advisor that has registered with either the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the securities authorities in the state(s) in which they operate. Technically speaking, an RIA is a financial firm. The individual advisors working for the RIA are IARs, or Investment Advisor Representatives – but the phrase “RIA” is often informally used to refer to both an IAR and the firm for which she or he works.1,2

 

The demand for RIAs is growing. Individuals, couples, families and institutions with sizable wealth management concerns often turn toward RIAs. From 2008-12, assets under management by RIAs increased an average of 8.8% annually, to the point where they were managing $1.5 trillion of invested assets in 2014. Additionally, the number of RIAs grew by 8% per year from 2008-12.3

 

Those statistics bear out an emerging truth: high net worth households want unbiased investment consulting, and see value in working with RIAs that are fee-based or even fee-only.

 

The typical RIA firm is built to address varied client priorities. An independent RIA firm is usually owned and operated by a highly experienced financial professional with prestigious designations (such as the Certified Financial Planner™ designation). That individual does not usually work alone. Often, the RIA firm employs or retains a “team” of professionals skilled in disciplines that may include portfolio management, tax planning, estate planning and retirement planning. These individuals are usually financial professionals who have spent significant time in the industry, and who have committed themselves to continuing education.2

 

Standards matter in life, and they especially matter in wealth management. As you want a wealth management with high standards, a Registered Investment Advisor is the clear choice.

 

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

190 S. Glassell St., Suite 209

Orange, CA 92866

714-876-6200 – office

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

   

Citations.

1 – sfchronicle.com/business/networth/article/Proposed-rule-would-lead-to-better-advice-on-6207776.php [4/17/15]

2 – nerdwallet.com/finance/question/what-s-the-difference-between-a-registered-investment-advisor-and-the-traditional-advisor-working-at-a-large-bank-or-brokerage-f-521 [8/13/13]

3 – forbes.com/sites/halahtouryalai/2014/04/16/still-booming-top-rias-keep-getting-bigger/ [4/16/14]

 

Major Risks to Family Wealth

/in /by

major risks to family wealthWill your accumulated assets be threatened by them?

Provided by: Warren Street Wealth Advisors

                               

All too often, family wealth fails to last. One generation builds a business – or even a fortune – and it is lost in ensuing decades. Why does it happen, again and again?

 

It is because families fall prey to serious money blunders – old and new. Classic mistakes are made, and changing times aren’t recognized.

 

Procrastination. This isn’t simply a matter of failing to plan, but also of failing to respond to acknowledged financial weaknesses.

 

For example, let’s say we have a multimillionaire named Alan. The named beneficiary of Alan’s six-figure savings account is no longer alive. While Alan knows about this financial flaw, knowledge is one thing and action is another. He realizes he should name another beneficiary, but he never gets around to it. His schedule is busy, and it is an inconvenience.

 

Sadly, procrastination wins out in the end and as the account lacks a POD beneficiary, those assets end up subject to probate. Then his heirs find out about other lingering financial matters that should have been taken care of regarding his IRA … his real estate holdings … and more.1

 

Minimal or absent estate planning. Every year, multimillionaires die without any leaving any instructions for the distribution of their wealth – not just rock stars and actors, but also small business owners and entrepreneurs. A 2015 Caring.com survey found that only 56% of American parents have a will or living trust.2

 

A will may not be enough. Anyone reliant on a will alone risks handing the destiny of their wealth over to a probate judge. The multimillionaire who has a child with special needs, a family history of Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s, or a former spouse or estranged children may need more rigorous estate planning. The same is true if he or she wants to endow charities or give grandkids a nice start in life. Is this person a business owner? That factor alone calls for coordinated estate and succession planning.

 

A finely crafted estate plan has the potential to perpetuate and enhance family wealth for decades, perhaps generations. Without it, heirs may have to deal with probate and a painful opportunity cost – the lost potential for tax-advantaged growth and compounding of those assets.

 

The lack of a “family office.” Decades ago, the wealthiest American households included offices: a staff of handpicked financial professionals worked within the mansion, supervising a family’s entire financial life. While the traditional “family office” has disappeared, the concept is as relevant as ever. Today, select wealth management firms emulate this model: in an ongoing relationship distinguished by personal and responsive service, they consult families about investments, provide reports and assist in decision-making. If your financial picture has become too complex to address on your own, this could be a wise choice for your family.

 

Technological flaws. Hackers can hijack email accounts and send phony messages to banks, brokerages and financial advisors greenlighting asset transfers. Social media can help you build your business, but it can also lend personal information to identity thieves who want access to digital and tangible assets.

 

Sometimes a business or family installs a security system that proves problematic – so much so that it is turned off half the time. Unscrupulous people have ways of learning about that. Maybe they are only one or two degrees separated from you.

 

No long-term strategy in place. When a family wants to sustain wealth for decades to come, heirs have to understand the how and why. All family members have to be on the same page, or at least read that page. If family communication about wealth tends to be more opaque than transparent, the mechanics and purpose of the strategy may never be adequately conveyed.

 

No decision-making process. In the typical high net worth family, financial decision-making is vertical and top-down. Parents or grandparents may make a decision in private, and it may be years before heirs learn about it or fully understand it. When heirs do become decision makers, it is usually upon the death of the elders.

 

Horizontal decision-making can help multiple generations understand and participate in the guidance of family wealth. Estate and succession planning professionals can help a family make these decisions with an awareness of different communication styles. In-depth conversations are essential; good estate planners recognize that silence does not necessarily mean agreement.

 

You may plan to reduce these risks (and others) in collaboration with financial and legal professionals who focus on estate planning and wealth transfer. It is never too early to begin.

 

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

190 S. Glassell St., Suite 209

Orange, CA 92866

714-876-6200 – office

www.warrenstreetwealth.com

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

 

Citations.

1 – nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/avoid-probate-book/chapter1-5.html [5/5/15]

2 – caring.com/about/news-room/american-parents-wills.html [4/22/15]

Are Your Children Financially Literate?

/in /by

New Approaches to a Changing Problem.

Provided by: Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

How bad is financial illiteracy today? So bad that your children may be at risk of making some serious financial mistakes. Some are finding that talking to children about finances has become less about the nuts and bolts of money and more about putting money’s importance to our daily lives in the correct context.

Women at particular risk. The U.S. Department of Labor reports that only 45% of working women ages 21-64 have a retirement plan. The DOL also notes that more women work in part-time jobs, and are more likely to interrupt their careers to take care of family, whether that be raising children or looking after parents. Some of these patterns are just luck of the draw, but others may come from what parents teach children about money, and how they teach it.1

 

Start at a young age. New York Times money columnist Ron Lieber’s book The Opposite of Spoiled discusses ways to prepare children for dealing with financial issues. The title refers to the author’s search for an antonym to the word “spoiled” in the context of an entitled and demanding personality. Lieber suggests focusing on values like graciousness in communication, which can lead to more openness in discussing money. Money can be frightening or mysterious to many, even well into adulthood, and Lieber encourages approaching the topic with fewer facts and figures and more as an emotional issue. The reasoning for this is that money is, for children and adults, an emotional topic.2

 

The emotional toll of money issues. While most people have experienced money worries at one time or another, the science surrounding this phenomenon is compelling. Many mental health organizations have special literature dealing with the emotions that surround money troubles, including Duke University’s Personal Assistance Service. They cite an American Psychological Association survey asserting that 80% of Americans experience genuine stress related to money, and that half of Americans worry about their ability to provide for their family. While money is always an uncertain and fluid factor in our lives, how we deal with these stresses may be strengthened through early experiences and developing good emotional habits early on. Frank talk about these emotions may demystify money and, in the process, boost financial literacy.3

 

Education is still needed. Of course, money is far more than an emotional issue; being comfortable with a topic doesn’t guarantee proficiency, it merely makes it easier to learn.

 

In 2014, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development tested 29,000 students aged 15 from 18 member countries or economic regions. Students in top-scoring Shanghai had the highest average score at 605, while the lowest average score belonged to 15-year-olds from Colombia at 375; the average score for U.S. students was a mediocre 490.4

While a number of factors may contribute to the lower scores, there were few obvious indicators, beyond a simple lack of financial sophistication. For example, while those with better math and reading skills were more likely to demonstrate financial literacy, not all with high proficiencies were demonstrably better with money. However, those who indicated that they enjoyed solving complex problems earned higher scores. This may be key. U.S. Education Secretary Arne Duncan indicated that teens needed to be more financially proficient, and in ways that their parents and grandparents never had to be.4

 

Prescriptions in progress. There are a number of online sources for financial education, helpful to both teens and young adults. The Ad Council and the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants have a national campaign, Feed the Pig™, to try and correct this dilemma (learn more by visiting www.feedthepig.org). The National Council on Economic Education has also helped launch www.TheMint.org to acquaint young adults with vital financial principles.

 

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

190 S. Glassell St., Suite 209

Orange, CA 92866

714-876-6200 – office

714-876-6202 – fax

714-876-6284 – direct

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

 

Citations.

1 – dol.gov/ebsa/publications/women.html [2/26/15]

2 – wealthmanagement.com/careers/cobbler-s-kids-have-no-shoes [2/17/15]

3 – hr.duke.edu/pas/money_emotion.html [2/26/15]

4 – pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/u-s-teens-rank-between-latvia-and-russia-on-financial-literacy-far-below-shanghai/ [7/10/14]

 

4 Money Blunders That Could Leave You Poorer

/in /by

Not to do listA “not-to-do” list for the new year & years to follow.

Provided by: Warren Street Wealth Advisors

   

How are your money habits? Are you getting ahead financially, or does it feel like you are running in place?

 

It may come down to behavior. Some financial behaviors promote wealth creation, while others lead to frustration. Certainly other factors come into play when determining a household’s financial situation, but behavior and attitudes toward money rank pretty high on the list.

 

How many households are focusing on the fundamentals? Late in 2014, the Denver-based National Endowment for Financial Education (NEFE) surveyed 2,000 adults from the 10 largest U.S. metro areas and found that 64% wanted to make at least one financial resolution for 2015. The top three financial goals for the new year: building retirement savings, setting a budget, and creating a plan to pay off debt.1

 

All well and good, but the respondents didn’t feel so good about their financial situations. About one-third of them said the quality of their financial life was “worse than they expected it to be.” In fact, 48% told NEFE they were living paycheck-to-paycheck and 63% reported facing a sudden and major expense last year.1

 

Fate and lackluster wage growth aside, good money habits might help to reduce those percentages in 2015. There are certain habits that tend to improve household finances, and other habits that tend to harm them. As a cautionary note for 2015, here is a “not-to-do” list – a list of key money blunders that could make you much poorer if repeated over time.

 

Money Blunder #1: Spend every dollar that comes through your hands. Maybe we should ban the phrase “disposable income.” Too many households are disposing of money that they could save or invest. Or, they are spending money that they don’t actually have (through credit cards).

 

You have to have creature comforts, and you can’t live on pocket change. Even so, you can vow to put aside a certain number of dollars per month to spend on something really important: YOU. That 24-hour sale where everything is 50% off? It probably isn’t a “once in a lifetime” event; for all you know, it may happen again next weekend. It is nothing special compared to your future.

 

Money Blunder #2: Pay others before you pay yourself. Our economy is consumer-driven and service-oriented. Every day brings us chances to take on additional consumer debt. That works against wealth. How many bills do you pay a month, and how much money is left when you are done? Less debt equals more money to pay yourself with – money that you can save or invest on behalf of your future and your dreams and priorities.

     

Money Blunder #3: Don’t save anything. Paying yourself first also means building an emergency fund and a strong cash position. With the middle class making very little economic progress in this generation (at least based on wages versus inflation), this may seem hard to accomplish. It may very well be, but it will be even harder to face an unexpected financial burden with minimal cash on hand.

 

The U.S. personal savings rate has averaged about 5% recently. Not great, but better than the low of 2.6% measured in 2007. Saving 5% of your disposable income may seem like a challenge, but the challenge is relative: the personal savings rate in China is 50%.2

 

Money Blunder #4: Invest impulsively. Buying what’s hot, chasing the return, investing in what you don’t fully understand – these are all variations of the same bad habit, which is investing emotionally and trying to time the market. The impulse is to “make money,” with too little attention paid to diversification, risk tolerance and other critical factors along the way. Money may be made, but it may not be retained.

 

Make 2015 the year of good money habits. You may be doing all the right things right now and if so, you may be making financial strides. If you find yourself doing things that are halting your financial progress, remember the old saying: change is good. A change in financial behavior may be rewarding.

     

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

190 S. Glassell St., Suite 209

Orange, CA 92866

714-876-6200 – office

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

    

Citations.

1 – denverpost.com/smart/ci_27275294/financial-resolutions-2015-four-ways-help-yourself-keep [1/7/15]

2 – tennessean.com/story/money/2014/12/31/tips-getting-financially-fit/21119049/ [12/31/14]

Getting Your Household Cash Flow Back Under Control

/in /by

Getting Your Household Cash Flow Back Under Control

Developing a better budgeting process may be the biggest step toward that goal.

Provided by Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

Where does your money go? If you find yourself asking that question from time to time, it may relate to cash flow within your household. Having a cash flow management system may be instrumental in restoring some financial control.

 

It is harder for a middle-class household to maintain financial control these days. If you find yourself too often living on margin (i.e., charging everything) and too infrequently with adequate cash in hand, you aren’t the only household feeling that way. Some major economic trends really have made it more challenging for households with mid-five-figure incomes.

 

By many economic standards, today’s middle class has it harder than the middle class of generations past. Some telling statistics point to this…

 

*In 81% of U.S. counties, the median income is lower today than it was in 1999. Even though we are in a recovery, much of the job growth in the past few years has occurred within the service and retail sectors. (The average full-time U.S. retail worker earns less than $25,000 annually.)

*Between 1989 and 2014, the American economy grew by 83% (adjusting for inflation) with no real wage growth for middle-class households.

*In the early 1960s, General Motors was America’s largest employer. Its average full-time worker at that time earned the (inflation-adjusted) equivalent of $50 an hour, plus benefits. Wal-Mart now has America’s largest workforce; it pays its average sales associate less than $10 per hour, sometimes without benefits.1,2

 

Essentially, the middle class must manage to do more with less – less inflation-adjusted income, that is. The need for budgeting is as essential as ever.

 

Much has been written about the growing “wealth gap” in the U.S., and that gap is very real. Less covered, but just as real, is an Achilles-heel financial habit injuring middle-class stability: a growing reliance on expensive money. As Money-Zine.com noted not long ago, U.S. consumer debt amounted to 7.3% of average household income in 1980 but 13.4% of average household income in 2013.3

 

So how can you make life more affordable? Budgeting is an important step. It promotes reliance on cash instead of plastic. It defines expenses, underlining where your money goes (and where it shouldn’t be going). It clears up what is hazy about your finances. It demonstrates that you can be in command of your money, rather than letting your money command you.

 

Budget for that vacation. Save up for it by spending much less on the “optionals”: coffee, cable, eating out, memberships, movies, outfits.

 

Buy the right kind of car & do your cash flow a favor. Many middle-class families yearn to buy a new car (a depreciating asset) or lease a new car (because they want to be seen driving a better car than they can actually afford). The better option is to buy a lightly used car and drive it for several years, maybe even a decade. Unglamorous? Maybe, but it should leave you less indebted. It may be a factor that can help you to …

 

Plan to set some cash aside for an emergency fund. According to a recent Bankrate survey, about a quarter of U.S. households lack one. Imagine how much better you would feel knowing you have the equivalent of a few months of salary in reserve in case of a crisis. Again, you can budget to build it – a little at a time, if necessary. The key is to recognize that a crisis will come someday; none of us are fully shielded from the whims of fate.3

 

Don’t risk living without medical & dental coverage. You probably have both, but some middle-class households don’t. According to the Department of Health & Human Services, 108 million Americans lack dental insurance. Workers for even the largest firms may find premiums, out-of-pocket costs and coinsurance excessive. This isn’t something you can go without. If your employer gives you the option of buying your own insurance, it could be a cheaper solution. At any rate, some serious household financial changes may need to occur so that you are adequately insured.3

 

Budgeting for the future is also important. A recent Gallup poll found that about 20% of Americans have no retirement savings. You have to wonder: how many of these people might have accumulated a nest egg over the years by steadily directing just $50 or $100 a month into a retirement plan? Budgeting just a little at a time toward that very important priority could promote profound growth of retirement savings thanks to investment yields and tax deferral.3

     

Turning to the financial professional you know and trust for input may help you to develop a better budgeting process – and beyond the present, the saving and investing you do today and tomorrow may help you to one day become the (multi-)millionaire next door.

      

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

190 S. Glassell St., Suite 209

Orange, CA 92866

714-876-6200 – office

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

     

Citations.

1 – washingtonpost.com/sf/business/2014/12/12/why-americas-middle-class-is-lost/ [12/12/14]

2 – tinyurl.com/knr3e78 [11/27/12]

3 – wallstcheatsheet.com/personal-finance/7-things-the-middle-class-cant-afford-anymore.html/?a=viewall [12/15/14]

 

What’s Your Financial Health Score?

/in /by

What’s Your Financial Health ScoreCan a 5-question test predict how wealthy you will become?

Provided by: Warren Street Wealth Advisors

    

In the future, will you become wealthier or poorer? Who knows, right? It seems like you would need a crystal ball to really answer that question given life’s up and downs. What if the answer is right in front of you? What if you can determine it from your present financial behaviors?

 

Two economists present a brief questionnaire – and an audacious claim. Last month, the Center for Household Financial Stability at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published an article titled “Five Simple Questions That Reveal Your Financial Health and Wealth.” The authors, William Emmons and Bryan Noeth, argue that your answers to these questions can effectively predict your financial future.1,2

 

Q: Did you save any money last year?

Q: Did you miss any loan or mortgage payments in the past year?

Q: Did you have a balance on your credit card after the last payment was due?

Q: Do liquid assets make up at least 10% of the value of your total assets?

Q: Is your total debt service (i.e., the cash you devote each month to paying principal and interest) less than 40% of your income?1

 

The Federal Reserve has actually asked these questions of consumers for decades as part of its Survey of Consumer Finances. Studying the eight SCFs conducted from 1992-2013, Emmons and Noeth looked at the answers respondents provided to these questions and the level of personal wealth they reported. Their assertion: “In summary, good financial health – as measured by our simple five-question scorecard – is highly correlated with the accumulation of wealth.”2

 

As part of their research, Emmons and Noeth scored the answers. A financially positive answer to a question was assigned 1 point; a financially negative answer, 0 points.2

 

The average total score (across more than 38,000 households) was 3.01. The highest average score to a question was 0.91 (the one about debt load being less than 40% of income) and the lowest average score to a question was 0.27 (the one about the percentage of liquid assets among total assets).2

 

There was a surprising conclusion. The authors found that education was no reliable indicator of personal wealth. When it came to being rich or poor, well-educated individuals had no leg up on lesser-educated individuals.2

 

What’s your score? If you are able to successively answer the above questions with “yes,” “no,” “no,” “yes” and “yes”, your household is probably in pretty good financial shape – or better. In simple terms, those answers would get you a 5.0.

 

Here’s the bottom line. If you save money consistently and maintain a good cash position, if you make loan and mortgage payments on time and pay off 100% of your credit card debt each billing cycle, if you avoid debts that put a strain on your budget … congratulations. You are doing the right things on behalf of your financial life and promoting your chances to build wealth.

 

If you’d like to see the precise methodology the researchers used and their definition of a “positive” and “negative” answer for each question, you can go online and download Issue 10 of the St. Louis Fed publication In the Balance (which contains the article and the scorecard) at stlouisfed.org/publications/itb/.

 

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

190 S. Glassell St., Suite 209

Orange, CA 92866

714-876-6200 – office

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

     

Citations.

1 – stlouisfed.org/newsroom/displayNews.cfm?article=2390 [12/15/14]

2 – stlouisfed.org/publications/pub_assets/pdf/2014/In_the_Balance_issue_10.pdf/ [12/14]

Your Year-End Financial Checklist

/0 Comments/in /by

Check ListSeven aspects of your financial life to review as the year draws to a close.

Provided by: Warren Street Wealth Advisors

                       

The end of a year makes us think about last-minute things we need to address and good habits we want to start keeping. To that end, here are seven aspects of your financial life to think about as this year leads into the next…

 

Your investments. Review your approach to investing and make sure it suits your objectives. Look over your portfolio positions and revisit your asset allocation.

 

Your retirement planning strategy. Does it seem as practical as it did a few years ago? Are you able to max out contributions to IRAs and workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s? Is it time to make catch-up contributions? Finally, consider Roth IRA conversion scenarios, and whether the potential tax-free retirement distributions tomorrow seem worth the taxes you may incur today. Be sure to take your Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) from your traditional IRA(s) by December 31. If you don’t, the IRS will assess a penalty of 50% of the RMD amount on top of the taxes you will already pay on that income. (While you can postpone your very first IRA RMD until April 1, 2015, that forces you into taking two RMDs next year, both taxable events.)1

   

Your tax situation. How many potential credits and/or deductions can you and your accountant find before the year ends? Have your CPA craft a year-end projection including Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). The rise in the top marginal tax bracket for 2014 made fewer high-earning executives and business owners subject to the AMT, as their ordinary income tax liabilities grew. That calls for a fresh look at accelerated depreciation, R&D credits, the Work Opportunity Tax Credit, incentive stock options and certain types of tax-advantaged investments.2

 

Review any sales of appreciated property and both realized and unrealized losses and gains. Take a look back at last year’s loss carry-forwards. If you’ve sold securities, gather up cost-basis information. Look for any transactions that could potentially enhance your circumstances.

 

Your charitable gifting goals. Plan charitable contributions or contributions to education accounts, and make any desired cash gifts to family members. The annual federal gift tax exclusion is $14,000 per individual for 2014 and 2015, meaning a taxpayer can gift as much as $14,000 to as many individuals as you like in each year without tax consequences. A married couple can gift up to $28,000 tax-free to as many individuals as they prefer. The gifts do count against the lifetime estate tax exemption amount, which climbs to $5.43 million per individual and $10.86 per married couple for 2015.3

 

You could also gift appreciated stocks to a charity. If you have owned them for more than a year, you can deduct 100% of their fair market value and legally avoid capital gains tax you would normally incur from selling them.4

 

Besides outright gifts, you can plan other financial moves on behalf of your family – you can create and fund trusts, for example. The end of the year is a good time to review any trusts you have in place.

 

Your life insurance coverage. Are your policies and beneficiaries up-to-date? Review premium costs, beneficiaries, and any and all life events that may have altered your coverage needs.

 

Speaking of life events…did you happen to get married or divorced in 2014? Did you move or change jobs? Buy a home or business? Did you lose a family member, or see a severe illness or ailment affect a loved one? Did you reach the point at which Mom or Dad needed assisted living? Was there a new addition to your family this year? Did you receive an inheritance or a gift? All of these circumstances can have a financial impact on your life, and even the way you invest and plan for retirement and wind down your career or business. They are worth discussing with the financial or tax professional you know and trust.

 

Lastly, did you reach any of these financially important ages in 2014? If so, act accordingly.

 

Did you turn 70½ this year? If so, you must now take Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) from your IRA(s).

Did you turn 62 this year? If so, you’re now eligible to apply for Social Security benefits.

Did you turn 59½ this year? If so, you may take IRA distributions without a 10% penalty.

Did you turn 55 this year? If so, and you retired during this year, you may now take distributions from your 401(k) account without penalty.

Did you turn 50 this year? If so, “catch-up” contributions may now be made to IRAs (and certain qualified retirement plans).1,5,6

 

The end of the year is a key time to review your financial well-being. If you feel you need to address any of the items above, please feel free to give me a call.

 

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

190 S. Glassell Streeet, Suite 209

Orange, CA 92866

Direct: 714-876-6200

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC.
Advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered
Investment Advisor. Warren Street and Cambridge are not affiliated.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

   

Citations.

1 – irs.gov/Retirement-Plans/RMD-Comparison-Chart-%28IRAs-vs.-Defined-Contribution-Plans%29 [4/30/14]

2 – tinyurl.com/o7wqk7z [3/27/14]

3 – forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2014/10/30/irs-announces-2015-estate-and-gift-tax-limits/ [10/30/14]

4 – philanthropy.com/article/Donors-Often-Overlook-Benefits/148561/ [8/29/14]

5 – nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/getting-retirement-money-early-without-30168.html [12/2/14]

6 – turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tools/tax-tips/Tax-Planning-and-Checklists/Tax-Tips-After-January-1–2015/INF12070.html [12/2/14]