Sometimes, it pays to strive for greener grass. But as an investor, second-guessing a stable strategy can leave you in the weeds. Trading in reaction to excitement or fear tricks you into buying high (chasing popular trends) and selling low (fleeing misfortunes), while potentially incurring unnecessary taxes and transaction costs along the way.
Still, what do you do if you’re unsure about how your investments stack up?
Compared to the Stocks du Jour?
It’s easy to be dazzled by popular individual stocks or sectors that have been earning more than you have and wonder whether you should get in on the action.
You might get lucky and buy in ahead of the peaks, ride the surges while they last, and manage to jump out before the fads fade. Unfortunately, even experts cannot foresee the countless coincidences that can squash a high-flying holding or send a different one soaring. To succeed at this gambit, you must correctly—and repeatedly—decide when to get in, and when to get out … in markets where unpredictable hot hands can run anywhere from days to years.
Remember, too, just by investing your money in the global stock market overall and sitting tight, you’ll probably already own some of today’s hot holdings. You’ll also automatically hold some of the next big winners, before they surge (effectively buying low).
Rather than comparing your investments to the latest sprinters, be the tortoise, not the hare. Get in, stay in, and focus on your own finish line. It’s the only one that matters.
Compared to “The Market”?
What if your investments seem to be performing differently not just from the high-flyers, but from the entire market? Maybe you’re seeing reports of “the market” returning a different amount than what you are experiencing.
Remember, when a reporter, analyst, or other experts discusses market performance, they’re usually citing returns from the S&P 500 Index, the DJIA, or a similar proxy. These popular benchmarks often represent one asset class: U.S. large-cap stocks. As such, it’s highly unlikely your own portfolio will always be performing anything like this single source of expected returns.
Most investors instead prefer to balance their potential risks and rewards. For example, if your portfolio is a 50/50 mix of stocks and bonds, you should expect it to underperform an all-stock portfolio over time. But it also should deliver more dependable (if still not guaranteed) returns in the end, along with a relatively smoother ride along the way.
Even if you’re more heavily invested in stocks than bonds, a well-diversified stock portfolio will typically include multiple sources of risks and returns, such as U.S., international, and emerging market stocks; small- and large-cap stocks; value and growth stocks; and other underrepresented sources of expected return.
Thus, we advise against comparing your portfolio’s performance to “the market.” Usually, any variance simply means your well-structured, globally diversified portfolio is working as planned.
In Summary
Admittedly, it can be easier said than done to avoid inappropriate performance comparisons across shifting times and unfolding events. But your portfolio should be structured to reflect your financial goals and your ability to tolerate the risks involved in pursuing your desired level of long-term growth.
In roaring bull and scary bear markets alike, we team up with you to address these critical questions about your investments. That way, you can accurately assess where you stand and where you’d like to go from here.
Please reach out to your advisor if you’d like to discuss further. We are always here for you!
Warren Street Wealth Advisors
Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor
The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.
https://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Blog-Thumbnail.png10801080Warren Street Teamhttps://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Warren_Street_logo-01.svgWarren Street Team2023-11-08 08:50:092024-11-07 09:20:26Beyond the Market: Understanding Your Investment Performance
Nobody wants to make investment mistakes. And yet, we’re human; mistakes happen. Here’s how to minimize the ones that matter the most, and make the most of the ones that remain.
Bad Decisions vs. Bad Outcomes
First, let’s define what we’re talking about:
Investment mistakes happen when you make bad decisions, regardless of whether the outcome is good or bad.
Bad decisions are the ones a rational investor would not make. For example:
Failing to spread your risks around: Concentrating in too few securities, instead of diversifying across many, and many types of investments.
Confusing speculating with investing: Chasing or fleeing hot trends, instead of structuring your total portfolio to capture expected market growth over time.
Taking on too much or too little investment risk for your circumstances: Investing too conservatively or too aggressively for your financial goals and risk tolerances.
Overlooking taxes: Spending more than necessary to participate in the market’s expected long-term growth.
Succumbing to harmful behavioral biases: Acting on gut feel over rational resolve.
These common investment mistakes share a recurring theme: By making wise decisions about that which you can control, you can best prepare for that which you cannot.
Damage Control
Consider auto insurance as an analogy with similar controllable choices and random risks. From hail storms to hit-and-runs, misfortunes happen. They are not your fault; they are not your mistake. But you insure against them anyway, since they can still generate a substantial loss.
You also do all you can to minimize your “at fault” errors. You don’t drive while impaired. You keep your vehicle in safe repair. You observe traffic laws. None of these sound decisions guarantee success, but they appreciably increase the odds you’ll remain accident-free.
As an investor, you can take a similar approach:
Mistake-free investing does not guarantee success. Rather, it improves your odds for happy outcomes, while softening the blow if misfortune strikes.
It’s worth noting, even if you make all the right investment decisions for all the right reasons, random misfortune can still strike. If it does, it would be a mistake to decide your prudent investment strategy was to blame. It would be an even worse mistake to abandon that strategy because you’ve encountered the equivalent of a market hit-and-run. This would be like dropping your insurance coverage because it didn’t prevent the accident to begin with.
The Upside of Making Investing Mistakes
“I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” — Michael Jordan
As just about any star athlete will tell you, the path to success is paved with errors. The same can be said about investing. The occasional misguided decision may even be good for you as an investor—especially if it’s made when the stakes are smaller and time is on your side.
The point is, if you’ve made investment mistakes in the past, don’t beat yourself up over them, or make more mistakes trying to “fix” the past (such as deciding you’ll never invest again after being burned by the market). Often, your best move is to identify which investment mistakes were involved, embrace the lessons learned, and give yourself permission to move on.
Admittedly, if you made an investment that didn’t pay off as you hoped for, it may be hard to know just what went wrong. Was it you, the whims of the market, or both?
Among our chief roles as a financial advisor is to help you sort out investment errors from market misfortunes, so you can move forward with greater resolve. Sometimes, this means adjusting your portfolio to reflect evolving personal financial goals or targets. Often, it means convincing you to stay the course with your already-solid plan. Either way, your future is not yet written. Reach out to us today if we can help you make the most of your next steps.
Warren Street Wealth Advisors
Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor
The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.
https://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Financial-Quick-Takes-Making-Mistakes-Blog.png10801080Warren Street Teamhttps://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Warren_Street_logo-01.svgWarren Street Team2023-10-19 07:35:242024-11-07 09:20:50Financial Quick Takes: Making Mistakes
Ever heard of the 80/20 rule? It suggests 80% of an outcome is often the result of just 20% of the effort you put into it.
Often, by prioritizing the 20% of your efforts that make the biggest splash, you can reduce excess commotion. In that spirit, here are 3 financial best practices that pack a lot of value per “pound” of effort.
Going back to 1926 and after adjusting for inflation, U.S. stocks have delivered about 7.3% annualized returns to investors who have simply been there, earning what the markets have to offer over the long haul. Those who instead fixate on dodging in and out of hot and cold markets are expected to reduce, rather than improve their end returns. That’s because, when markets recover from a downturn, they often more than make up for the stumble quickly, dramatically, and without warning. Instead of chasing trends, simply stay invested over time.
2. Portfolio Management: Use Asset Allocation, and Don’t Monkey With the Mix
Asset allocation is about investing in appropriate percentages of security types, or asset classes, based on their risk/return “personality.” For example, given your financial goals and risk tolerances, what ratio of stocks versus bonds should you hold?
Both practical and academic analyses have found that asset allocation is responsible for a great deal of the return variability across and among different portfolios. So, to build an efficient portfolio, we advise paying the most attention to your overall asset allocation, rather than fussing over particular securities. Luckily, if you’re a client of ours we’ve already taken care of this for you.
3. Financial Planning: Do It, But Don’t Overdo It
Also in 80/20 rule fashion, an ounce of financial planning can alleviate pounds of doubt. Planning connects your resources with your values and priorities. It’s your touchstone when uncertainty eats away at your resolve. And it guides how and why you’re investing to begin with.
Here’s some good, 80/20 news: Your plan need not be elaborate or time-consuming to be effective. In The One-Page Financial Plan, author Carl Richards describes:
“Your one-page plan simply represents the three to four things that are the most important to you: some action items that need to get done along with a reminder of why you’re doing them.”
If you’d like to do more, great. But even a one-page plan will give you a huge head start. Write it down, as Richards describes. When in doubt, read what you’ve written. Is it still “you”? If so, your work is done; stick to plan. If not, consider what’s changed, and update your plan accordingly. I
Building Lifetime Wealth, 80/20 Style
Properly applied, the 80/20 rule can help minimize the time and energy you have to put into maximizing your financial well-being. Whether you’re saving for retirement, funding your kids’ college education, preparing for a wealth transfer, applying for insurance, or otherwise managing your hard-earned wealth, we can help you identify and execute these and other actions that matter the most, so you can get back to the rest of your life.
Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor
The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.
https://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/80-20-Rule-Blog.png10801080Cary Facerhttps://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Warren_Street_logo-01.svgCary Facer2023-07-28 08:57:432024-11-07 09:21:403 Ways to Apply the 80/20 Rule to Your Financial Pursuits
Year to date, 2022 is in bear market territory across multiple markets. To place that news in meaningful context, we pose two questions:
In better times, had you boldly “pre-decided” what you would and would not do during the next bear market?
Even if you had disciplined bear market plans in place, have you been wondering whether you should un-decide anything anyway?
Admittedly, it’s a tall order to whistle past the graveyard of recent market returns without being haunted by at least a dash of indecision. Given how unsettling many third quarter and year-to-date events and performances have been, you may struggle to un-notice the usual swarm of hand-wringing predictions and “this time it’s different” warnings about what may lie ahead.
Perhaps the scariest part isn’t necessarily the numbers themselves, as much as the lingering uncertainty of it all. When will the pain end?
Unfortunately, we can’t answer that, or guarantee the doomsday predictors aren’t right. But we can be inspired to reframe the uncertainty and understand what to make of it based on recent reflections from Dimensional Fund Advisors’ David Booth:
“You can feel empowered by uncertainty instead of beaten down by it. Without uncertainty, there would be no opportunity. … If you think about it, the life equivalent of compound interest is wisdom. Learning from the past helps you make better decisions in the future, and those lessons build on one another over time.”
In that context, let’s look back to the last time we encountered some of the inflationary and potentially recessionary economic conditions we’re currently enduring. We now have the compound wisdom to know just how wrong an infamous 1979 BusinessWeek cover story turned out to be when it declared “The Death of Equities.” Eventually, BusinessWeek rolled into Bloomberg’s publications. Forty years later, in 2019, a Bloomberg columnist described how they were “still getting grief” about it:
“Three years after [“The Death of Equities”] appeared, the stock market hit bottom and then began a remarkable resurgence. The total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index since its 1982 low, with dividends reinvested, has been nearly 7,000%. Not bad for a corpse.”
It would’ve been a bad idea to give up on capital markets in 1979. It remains a bad idea to give up on them today, especially given the compound wisdom we’ve acquired since then. Durable, well-diversified asset allocation remains our best strategy in bull and bear markets alike.
“Great investment experiences treat most portfolio decisions as non-decisions. They’ve been pre-decided, and are immune to market prices, sentiment, and human judgment. They remove agency, and thus reduce regret.”
We encourage you to recall everything we’ve already done to manage your globally diversified mix of stock, bond, and appropriate alternative investments. We’ve based your portfolio on the assumption that markets are durable over the years and frequently uncertain in real time (and yes, as we’re seeing, that can apply to bond markets, too). We can also discuss myriad bear market actions worth considering at this time, such as:
Sticking with your well-planned portfolio mix (reallocating when appropriate for your personal financial goals).
Periodically rebalancing to stay on target.
Tax-loss harvesting in your taxable accounts.
Adding even more investable assets to your portfolio while prices are low (especially if you’ve got a long time to invest).
Taking a close look at your discretionary spending (especially if you’re in early retirement).
How else can we assist you and yours at this time? Please let us know if we can answer any questions about current market conditions, or anything else that may be on your mind.
Kirsten C. Cadden, CFP®
Associate Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors
Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor
The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.
https://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Letter-to-Clients-on-Market-Volatility-Blog-Thumbnail.png10801080Kirsten C. Cadden, CFP®https://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Warren_Street_logo-01.svgKirsten C. Cadden, CFP®2022-12-29 10:05:392024-11-07 09:26:06Letter to Clients on Market Volatility
To say the least, there has been plenty of political, financial, and economic action this year — from rising interest rates to elevated inflation to ongoing market turmoil.
How will all the excitement translate into annual performance in our investment portfolios? The answer remains to be seen. But, while we wait to find out, here are five action items worth tending to before 2022 is a wrap.
Revisit Your Cash Reserves
Where is your cash stashed these days? After years of offering essentially zero interest in money markets, savings accounts, and similar platforms, some banks are now offering higher interest rates to savers.
Shop around: If you have significant cash saved up, now may be a good time to compare rates on cash accounts. We can help if you need guidance exploring the options.
Put Your Money to Work
If you’re sitting on more cash than you need in your emergency reserve, you may be able to put it to even better use under current conditions. Consider the following:
Lighten your debt load: Carrying high-interest debt is a threat to your financial well-being, especially in times of rising rates. Consider paying off credit card balances or other debts. Avoid accruing new debt during the holiday season.
Invest: Reach out to your lead advisor to determine what your opportunities are to put some cash to work in the markets.
Make Some Smooth Tax-Planning Moves
Another way to save more money is to pay less in taxes. Here are a couple of year-end ideas:
It’s still harvest season: Market downturns often present opportunities to engage in tax-loss harvesting by selling taxable shares at a loss, and promptly reinvesting the proceeds in a similar (but not identical) fund. You can then use the losses to offset taxable gains, without significantly altering your investment mix. If you have a non-retirement brokerage account with us, we’ve already been doing this on your behalf.
Maximize tax opportunities: Make sure you are taking advantage of your 401(k) and other tax-deferred investment opportunities. With only a few paychecks left in 2022, you’ll want to make sure your contributions are optimized.
Check Up on Your Healthcare Coverage
As year-end approaches, make sure you and your family have made the most of your healthcare coverage. Take a moment to examine all your benefits. For example, if you have a Health Savings Account (HSA), have you funded it for the year? If you have a Flexible Spending Account (FSA), have you spent any balance you cannot carry forward? If you’ve already met your annual deductible, are there additional covered expenses worth incurring before the meter resets in 2023? If you’re eligible for free annual wellness exams or other benefits, have you used them?
Get Set for 2023
Why wait for 2023 to start anew? Year-end can be an ideal time to take stock of where you stand and consider what you’d like to achieve in the year ahead.
Audit your household interests: What has changed, and what hasn’t? Have you shifted careers or decided to retire? Added new hobbies or encountered personal setbacks? How might these and other significant life events alter your ideal investment allocations, cash-flow requirements, insurance coverage, or estate plan?
How Can We Help?
How else can we help you wrap 2022 and position you and your loved ones for the year ahead?
Whether it’s helping you manage your investment portfolio, optimizing your tax planning, considering your cash reserves, weighing insurance offerings, or assessing any other components that contribute to your financial well-being, we stand ready to assist — today, and through the years ahead.
Cary Facer
Partner Emeritus, Warren Street Wealth Advisors
Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor
The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.
https://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Best-Practices-for-Year-End-2022-Blog-Thumbnail.png10801080Cary Facerhttps://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Warren_Street_logo-01.svgCary Facer2022-12-16 08:30:212024-11-07 09:26:51Five Financial Best Practices for Year-End 2022
Rising interest rates have been a hot topic in the financial press, and many of my clients are wondering what the impact will be on their Chevron pension — specifically, their lump sum.
As a retired Chevron employee, I understand these concerns firsthand! I monitored rates extraordinarily closely myself until I retired five years ago. The lump sum option is a great one for many people, but it is massively influenced by interest rates. Even a single percentage change in interest rates can dramatically impact your lump sum number via an inverse relationship. That is to say, as interest rates increase, your lump sum lessens. And as interest rates decrease, your lump sum grows.
This gives you the potential to walk away with a large lump sum when you retire, but it also comes with the risk and emotional drain of fluctuating interest rates. One of my clients, for example, saw his lump sum drop from $1,080,000 to $1,040,000 in a 30-day period. Changes like that can be hard to swallow, and it’s particularly disconcerting when you don’t know how long these rate spikes will last.
At Warren Street, we follow the tier 3 rates (the IRS segment Chevron uses to calculate your lump sum) extremely closely, so we can help you run projections for your specific case. Everyone’s situation is different, so I encourage you to give me a call if you are nervous at all, regardless of your current lump sum or retirement time horizon. However, in general:
If you’re thinking about retiring in the next 12-24 months or so, it might be a good time. Let’s run the numbers and see.
If you’re looking at two to five years or more for retirement, these interest rate spikes may not affect you. When they go back down, your lump sum will rise back up. Age and service credits will also help make up the difference from any interest rate changes.
If you’re finding yourself talking to your friends, coworkers, spouse, or others about this topic, give me a call — I will help you run the numbers so you can make an informed decision. The question of, “Do I have enough?” is never an easy one, and I’m here to help you understand all your options with data-driven insights so you can make the best choice for your family.
Feel free to contact me if you have any questions,
We’re officially 16 months into the pandemic. You’re vaccinated and planning your next trip, itching to get out the house. Hawaii, Las Vegas, or Disney World? Bulls will say choose your adventure. Bears will say pick your poison.
Regardless, nobody can deny that the United States has largely re-opened with certain sectors, such as airlines and travel, reaping both the benefits and consequences of pent-up demand. To give you a better idea of what we’re talking about, check out some of these headlines:
Some might claim that this is totally expected — and you’re right. Airlines were one of the hardest hit sectors last year; the drop-off in daily Transportation Security Administration (TSA) throughput in March 2020 speaks volumes to this. Fast forward to today, the amount of people being screened daily by the TSA is hovering just below pre-pandemic levels.
Source: Transportation Security Administration, Data as of 7/11/21
With almost 50% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated, maybe it’s not as surprising to hear that a customer was put on hold for 21 hours with Delta’s scheduling team, that there are staff shortages across major airlines, or that the TSA is offering $1,000 signing bonuses.
As a result, you have what many people expected – too much demand and too little supply. But this also alters the behavior of consumers who have yet to travel. Even those desperately yearning for a vacation might hold their horses to avoid falling victim to lackadaisical service, unexpected flight cancellations, and expensive airfare. This means possibly postponing your trip in July, to let’s say, September.
What does this mean for markets?
This past May, we saw economic data miss estimates (see below), which sparked conversations about whether a slowdown is due in the second half of 2021. There are likely two culprits that caused these economic indicators to miss their marks: our current supply and demand dynamic and inflation.
Source: FactSet, Data as of 7/12/2021
Raging demand unfulfilled by constrained supply is prompting consumers to hold back expenditures. For example, if you’re itching to buy a Tesla and it’s out of stock, you probably won’t settle for a BMW. Meanwhile, inflation and rising raw material prices are eroding purchasing power in the short-term. If all-you-can-eat sushi cost $25/person in December 2020 and now costs $40/person (speaking from personal experience), that’s probably one less buffet-like meal you’d want to indulge in.
Does this mean the US economy is destined for a slowdown? Not necessarily. Going back to our talk about airlines and travel, perhaps deferred demand (e.g., postponed trips) will serve as a silver lining to help drive growth in coming quarters. If so, economic indicators like Retail Sales and Orders of Durable Goods mentioned above could benefit and offset negative data.
As for the two aforementioned culprits – we believe there will come a point where the supply and demand equilibriums balance, but not without the bouts of inflationary pressure we’re already seeing. Whether that inflation is temporary or sticky is an ongoing debate with an outcome that will unfold in due time.
What should you do?
First of all, take the vacations (budget permitting) you deserve whether that’s in two weeks or in two months. 2020 took an emotional and physical toll on all of us. Making it through such a year deserves celebration.
At the same, take these trips knowing that your portfolio is built with your long-term asset allocation in mind. Our team is continuously taking advantage of tactical long-term opportunities we see appropriate and positioning portfolios for current market trends. Be reassured that your portfolios are made to achieve your financial objectives amidst all the noise.
What about the Warren Street team?
We’ve got a few trips of our own planned. Keep an eye on your inbox to see where we’re headed for the summer.
Phillip Law, Portfolio Analyst
Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors
Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor
The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.
https://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Airliner.jpg7001050Phillip Law, CFAhttps://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Warren_Street_logo-01.svgPhillip Law, CFA2021-07-21 23:13:442021-11-02 23:05:21What’s Up With That Inflationary Altitude?
Wow! Our last published piece on the blog was “2019: A Year for the Record Books”. Two months later and the peace and quiet of yesteryear seem a distant memory. Scary days have arrived, thanks to the concern over how coronavirus might impact our global economy. As we draft this update, headlines are reporting the biggest weekly stock market losses since 2008.
We do not know whether the current correction will deepen or soon dissipate. It is important to remember that what was good advice in mild markets remains good advice today. Given the current climate, let’s take a look at a sound unemotional treatment plan for your nest-egg.
We continue to advise against panicked reactions to market conditions, or trying to predict an unknowable future. That being said, we are aggressively looking for ways to help our clients make lemonade out of this week’s lemons – such as through disciplined portfolio rebalancing and strategic tax loss harvesting. On Friday February 28th, we executed both on behalf of our private wealth clients.
Other lemonade ideas include refinancing your mortgage as interest rates have hit historic lows or executing a ROTH conversion while your portfolio is down, turning the recovery into tax free growth. More than anything, as you’ll see below, a long term perspective during an epidemic pays.
*First Trust
In 11 of the 12 cases above, the U.S. Stock Market was positive 6 months after an epidemic broke out, with an average return of 8.8%. In 9 of the 11 cases the U.S. Stock Market was positive 12 months after with an average return of 13.6%. It’s also important to note diversification worked last week with U.S. Bonds actually netting a positive return while U.S. stocks were down 11.5%.
@StockCharts – US Market represented by SPY. US Bonds by AGG.
If we can be of assistance or you want to talk through any of this, please do not hesitate to reach out to our team. In the meantime, here are 10 things you can do right now while markets are at least temporarily tanking.
1. Don’t panic (or pretend not to). It’s easy to believe you’re immune from panic when the financial sun is shining, but it’s hard to avoid indulging in it during a crisis. If you’re entertaining seemingly logical excuses to bail out during a steep or sustained market downturn, remember: It’s highly likely your behavioral biases are doing the talking. Even if you only pretend to be calm, that’s fine, as long as it prevents you from acting on your fears.
“Every time someone says, ‘There is a lot of cash on the sidelines,’ a tiny part of my soul dies. There are no sidelines.” – Cliff Asness, AQR Capital Management
2. Redirect your energy. No matter how logical it may be to sit on your hands during market downturns, your “fight or flight” instincts can trick you into acting anyway. Fortunately, there are productive moves you can make instead – such as all 10 actions here – to satisfy the itch to act without overhauling your investments at potentially the worst possible time.
“My advice to a prospective active do-it-yourself investor is to learn to golf. You’ll get a little exercise, some fresh air and time with your friends. Sure, green fees can be steep, but not as steep as the hit your portfolio will take if you become an active do-it-yourself investor.” – Terrance Odean, behavioral finance professor
3. Remember the evidence. One way to ignore your self-doubts during market crises is to heed what decades of practical and academic evidence have taught us about investing: Capital markets’ long-term trajectories have been upward. Thus, if you sell when markets are down, you’re far more likely to lock in permanent losses than come out ahead.
4. Manage your exposure to breaking news. There’s a difference between following current events versus fixating on them. In today’s multitasking, multimedia world, it’s easier than ever to be inundated by late-breaking news. When you become mired in the minutiae, it’s hard to retain your long-term perspective.
“Choosing what to ignore – turning off constant market updates, tuning out pundits purveying the latest Armageddon – is critical to maintaining a long-term focus.” – Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
5. Revisit your carefully crafted investment plans (or make some). Even if you yearn to go by gut feel during a financial crisis, remember: You promised yourself you wouldn’t do that. When did you promise? When you planned your personalized investment portfolio, carefully allocated to various sources of expected returns, globally diversified to dampen the risks involved, and sensibly executed with low-cost funds managed in an evidence-based manner. What if you’ve not yet made these sorts of plans or established this kind of portfolio? Then these are actions we encourage you to take at your earliest convenience.
“Thus, the prudent strategy for investors is to act like a postage stamp. The lowly postage stamp does only one thing, but it does it exceedingly well – it adheres to its letter until it reaches its destination. Similarly, investors should adhere to their investment plan – asset allocation.” – Larry Swedroe, financial author
6. Reconsider your risk tolerance (but don’t act on it just yet). When you craft a personalized investment portfolio, you also commit to accepting a measure of market risk in exchange for those expected market returns. Unfortunately, during quiet times, it’s easy to overestimate how much risk you can stomach. If you discover you’re miserable to the point of breaking during even modest market declines, you may need to re-think your investment plans. Start planning for prudent portfolio adjustments, preferably working with an objective advisor to help you implement them judiciously over time.
“Our aversion to leverage has dampened our returns over the years. But Charlie [Munger] and I sleep well. Both of us believe it is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need.” – Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway
7. Double down on your risk exposure – if you’re able. If, on the other hand, you’ve got nerves of steel, market downturns can be opportunities to buy more of the depressed (low-price) holdings that fit into your investment plans. You can do this with new money, or by rebalancing what you’ve got (selling appreciated assets to buy the underdogs). This is not for the timid! You’re buying holdings other investors are fleeing in droves. But if can do this and hold tight, you’re especially well-positioned to make the most of the expected recovery.
8. Tax-loss harvest. Depending on market conditions and your own circumstances, you may be able to use tax-loss harvesting during market downturns. A successful tax-loss harvest lowers your tax bill without substantially altering or impacting your long-term investment outcomes. This action is not without its tricks and traps, however, so it’s best done in alliance with a financial professional who is well-versed in navigating the challenges involved.
9, Revisit this article. There is no better time to re-read this article than when the going gets tough, when yesterday’s practice run is no longer an exercise but a real event. Maybe it will take your mind off the barrage of breaking news.
“We’d never buy a shirt for full price then be O.K. returning it in exchange for the sale price. ‘Scary’ markets convince people this unequal exchange makes sense.” – Carl Richards, Behavior Gap
10. Talk to us. We didn’t know when. We still don’t know how severe it will be, or how long it will last. But we do know markets inevitably tank now and then; we also fully expect they’ll eventually recover and continue upward. Since there’s never a bad time to receive good advice, we hope you’ll be in touch if we can help.
Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor
The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.
https://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/asdasd-1.png400600Blake Streethttps://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Warren_Street_logo-01.svgBlake Street2020-02-29 01:43:462021-06-07 17:13:33Coronavirus: Here’s a Portfolio Treatment Plan
2019 turned out to be one of the best years for the financial markets in recent history. To understand how we got there, it’s helpful to consider where we began. Factset did a very good job of this on its website insight.factset.com: “As we began 2019, the big economic stories were the Fed’s series of interest rate hikes (four in 2018), the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, the December 2018 stock market drop (S&P 500: -9.2%, DJIA: -8.7%), and the escalating U.S.-China trade war. As the year progressed, we saw movement on all fronts.” The bullet points below provide a useful summary:
The Fed’s 2018 interest rate hikes were partially reversed as the FOMC cut rates three times in the second half of the year in reaction to a growing number of signals flashing recession.
The 35-day U.S. government shutdown, which ended on January 25, 2019, was the longest U.S. government shutdown in history. With many federal agencies closed and federal employees across the country furloughed or working without pay, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown cost the economy $11 billion, $3 billion of which was permanently lost.
The ups and downs of U.S.-China trade negotiations sent global stock markets on a roller coaster ride throughout the year. As the year comes to a close, the U.S. has reached a so-called “Phase 1” trade agreement with China that reduces some of the tariffs imposed over the last 18 months and stops the imposition of a new set of tariffs set to go into effect on December 15. For its part, China has agreed to purchase more U.S. agricultural products. While the agreement helps to diffuse global anxiety surrounding the growing trade tensions, it fails to address significant concerns around technology and intellectual property rights. Still, equity markets have responded positively to the news, surging to new highs.
With this context in mind, how did
the markets do in 2019?
Risk assets powered forward in December. After a rocky ride of positive and negative returns during the year, emerging markets stocks charged to the front of the pack in December. EM Equity crossed the finish line in the middle of the field with a return of 18.4%, about half the return of the winning asset class, U.S. Growth stocks (36.4%). U.S. Large Cap was 2nd at 31.5%, U.S. Value stocks came in 3rd at 26.5%, and International stocks were 4th at 24.63%. Though bonds trailed the field at 8.7%, this is more than twice the 10-year average for the Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index, which was supercharged by falling Treasury yields as the Fed repeatedly lowered its short-term interest rate target.
The S&P500 total return for 2019 was the 18th best since 1926, 8th best since 1970, and 4th best since 1990[1]. The Barclays Aggregate bond index had its 13th best year since 1980[2].
What can we expect from the markets
in 2020?
An era of the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’. Technological innovations from industrial automation to ‘fracking’ to high speed data connections and the ‘internet of things’ has brought the world out of scarcity and into surplus. But this abundance is not felt by all – perhaps not even by most. Those with access to these technologies, either via infrastructure or financial resources, unlock a brave new world of possibilities. Those without such access are left behind. While wages generally have begun to increase, median incomes are not rising fast enough, causing the gap between economic winners and losers to widen. This situation has sparked political protests and dissatisfaction among working-class people around the world. Combined with the uncertain outcome of the presidential election in the U.S., never-ending Brexit negotiations in the U.K., and military conflicts and political posturing around the world, the global economy could stumble if government agents make a serious misstep.
Despite these risks, the IMF continues to forecast stronger global economies in 2020 and beyond. According to the latest update to the IMF World Economic Outlook[3], global growth is forecast to improve from 2.9% in 2019 to 3.3% in 2020 and 3.4% in 2021 due to easing trade tensions, strong labor markets and service sectors, and accommodative monetary policy. IMF economists also see welcome indications that the global slump in manufacturing and trade may have bottomed out.
This positive outlook is contingent
on the recovery of less-developed countries currently dealing with stressed
political and/or economic conditions: Argentina, Iran, Turkey, Brazil, India,
and Mexico. Advanced economies such as Europe and the U.S. are likely to continue
to grow less than 2% per year.
This outlook could change quickly if new trade tensions emerge or social unrest around the world intensifies. The IMF ‘vulnerabilities’ table below reports that the financial condition of sovereign nations is vulnerable to economic shocks. This vulnerability is due in part to a lack of room for fiscal or monetary agents to maneuver given high budget deficits and the very low level of government interest rates in many countries. Businesses and households in developed economies are generally solid, but households in emerging economies remain insecure.
Bottom line:Economic expansions don’t die of old age. U.S. and international economies successfully navigated a year full of social and political tensions and uncertainty, despite being in the late stage of a record-setting expansion. Low interest rates and muted inflation are enabling businesses and households to take on new ventures where they see a suitable potential reward. And unlike the expansion which preceded the financial crisis of 2008-2009, ‘asset bubbles’ and excessive risk-taking have been limited due to the many disruptions experienced during 2019 and the uncertain future outlook.
While risks to this outlook are clear and present, we are
cautiously optimistic that policymakers and financial markets will continue to
thread the needle between crisis and excess, and that 2020 will be a relatively
peaceful and prosperous new year.
Marcia Clark, CFA, MBA
Senior Research Analyst, Warren Street Wealth Advisors
DISCLOSURES
Investment Advisor Representative,
Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor
The information presented here
represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any
individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry
unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your
financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy
or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice.
Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document.
Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and
current trades may be contrary to outdated publications.
https://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2019_Dec_1-cover-image.png715816Marcia Clarkhttps://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Warren_Street_logo-01.svgMarcia Clark2020-01-29 17:15:142020-01-29 17:38:332019: A Year for the Record Books
U.S. growth stocks and emerging markets jump-started the 4th quarter with returns of 2.82% and 4.22% respectively as investors shifted away from ‘risk off’ assets such as defensive stocks and U.S. Treasury bonds
The FOMC dropped its federal funds interest rate target for the 3rd time in 2019 to 1.5% – 1.75%. Chairman Powell indicated this cut was the last of the ‘midcycle adjustments’, causing investors to speculate about a pause in rate changes for the next few FOMC meetings.
The U.S. and China made progress toward a trade resolution, though the pace and magnitude of the agreement is unclear. Global economies seem to be successfully navigating geopolitical tensions in Hong Kong, unrest in Chile, water wars in Egypt, and the never-ending Brexit saga, among others.
Conclusion: Barring a major geopolitical misstep, the U.S. stock market could end the year with a return in the top 25% since 1998. U.S. bonds may end with their best return since 2010.
Global stocks begin to close the gap with the U.S.
The 4th quarter is off to a great start! Despite a sharp decline the first few days of the month, global stock markets were very strong in October. Emerging Markets equity beat the S&P 500 for the second month in a row, up 4.22% versus 2.17%[1]. In typical ‘risk on’, ‘risk off’ fashion, bonds and gold lagged the field in October. Commodities stayed within sight of the leaders at +1.24% for the month, but U.S. and Emerging Markets bonds were far behind at +0.41% and +0.30%, respectively. For the year-to-date, Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) is picking up the pace with a return of 20.05% versus 23.16% for the S&P 500. The year-to-date leader as of October 31st is U.S. growth stocks at 26.77%.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui
This strong start to the 4th quarter can be attributed to progress with China/U.S. trade negotiations and no significant negative news about the other international worries facing the markets: Brexit, political uncertainty in the U.S. and overseas, tensions between Hong Kong and China, and soft business confidence around the world. If none of these go terribly wrong, 2019 is on track to be in the top 25% of S&P 500 stock market returns since 1988[2].
Amid this backdrop of relative stability, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered its short-term target interest rate for the third time in 2019 to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%[3]. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that U.S. economic growth is steady despite continued weakness in business investment and exports, and core inflation is running below the Fed’s 2% target. The October rate cut was characterized as the final ‘midcycle adjustment’ to help support the maturing U.S. economic expansion. Chairman Powell indicated the FOMC will continue to monitor economic activity to determine the appropriate level of the federal funds rate going forward. His remarks did not include previous language about the Fed acting “as appropriate to sustain the expansion”, causing market watchers to expect a pause in rate changes going forward.
Source: BNP Paribas Asset Management, Bloomberg as of 11/4/2019
In the days following the rate cut, intermediate and longer-term Treasury yields rose, reversing the yield curve inversion seen for much of 2019 and signaling diminishing investor expectations for a near-term recession.
The return to an upwardly-sloping yield curve is a relief to market watchers. A healthy banking system requires short term rates to be lower than long term rates for banks to maintain consistent profit margins. Higher long-term yields encourage investors to take a longer-term perspective and make more strategic investments. Institutions such as pension plans also have a better chance of satisfying their obligations to future retirees. In general, financial markets do a much better job allocating capital when short-term interest rates are lower than long term rates.
Source: www.treasury.gov
Looking beyond Treasuries, corporate bond yield spreads have drifted back toward the extremely low levels seen in early 2018. This is another indication that investors are comfortable taking risk right now. At Warren Street Wealth Advisors, we’re watching for excessive risk taking which could mean an asset price ‘bubble’ and potentially the end of the stock and bond rally. The occasional drops in market prices we see from time to time are a healthy sign that investors are making rational decisions rather than reckless speculation.
Corporate bond risk premiums drift near historic lows
Let’s not forget the global economy, which the Fed has often mentioned as one reason for reducing interest rates this year. Though the data remains mixed, the International Monetary Fund is forecasting global GDP to close 2019 up 3%, with the U.S. at 1.7% and Emerging and Developing Economies up nearly 4%[4]. The IMF expects global growth to improve in 2020 to 3.4% as Europe adjusts to the new tariff landscape and political uncertainties diminish.
Global GDP projected to remain low but positive
A global recession is highly unlikely through the end of 2020 and probably longer, but there are significant risks to this outlook! The IMF is urging political leaders to defuse trade tensions and reinvigorate multilateral cooperation, rather than focus solely on accommodative monetary policy to keep the world economy afloat.
Bottom line: The U.S. economic expansion remains on track and should end the year well, barring significant missteps in the global economic and political landscape. Though it’s been a bumpy ride, investors are likely to close the books on 2019 with healthy profits from both stocks and bonds, and meaningful progress toward achieving their financial goals.
Marcia Clark, CFA, MBA
Senior Research Analyst, Warren Street Wealth Advisors
DISCLOSURES
Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor
The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications.
Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200
Growth stocks take the lead year-to-date
[1] Performance represented by ETFs designed to track various market segments: SPY (S&P 500), AGG (Barclay’s Aggregate Bond index), EEM (emerging markets equity), EFA (developed international equity), GLD (gold prices)
https://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2019_Oct_1-cover-image.jpg450600Marcia Clarkhttps://warrenstreetwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Warren_Street_logo-01.svgMarcia Clark2019-11-13 18:54:592019-11-13 18:54:59‘Risk On’ trades take the lead in October
Marcia Clark, CFA, MBA