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Key Financial Insights from 2024 and Looking Ahead to 2025

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As we approach the end of 2024, it’s an opportune time to reflect on the year’s financial developments and consider what 2025 may bring. We believe in understanding both the past and potential future of our economic landscape, which may help inform financial decisions.

This year has brought its share of financial developments, from market fluctuations to policy changes that have shaped the economic environment. Shifts in various sectors, interest rate movements, and global events have influenced financial strategies across the board.

Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate new opportunities and challenges in the financial world. Our team watches current trends and indicators to provide some insights for the coming year.

In this review, we’ll examine the key financial events of 2024 and their impact and potential implications. We’ll then turn our attention to 2025, offering our perspective on trends that may emerge in the coming months.

Whether you’re a long-standing client or simply interested in staying informed, we believe this overview may provide some insights for your financial strategies as we move into the new year.

Key Economic Factors in 2024

  • Interest Rates

During the September meeting, the Federal Reserve voted to lower interest rates by 0.5 percent, the first reduction in rates since 2020. While the pivot was long-anticipated, the size of the cut surprised many pundits following the Fed’s all-out fight against inflation launched two years ago. The move, unusual in an election year, brought the benchmark federal funds rate to a range between 4.75% and 5%. Some anticipate the Fed may adjust interest rates again in 2024.1

  • Inflation

The decision to trim interest rates moved the central bank into a new phase, and preventing further weakening of the U.S. labor market is now an important priority. For most of the past 2½ years, the Fed focused on fighting inflation. With the Consumer Price Index receding from 6.4% in January 2023 to 2.9% this July, the Fed pivoted attention to the softening job market. By comparison, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in August, up from 3.7% in January.1

  • GDP Growth

Real GDP growth rose by 3.0% quarterly annualized in Q2 2024, up from 1.6% in Q1 2024. This increase was led by stronger domestic demand and a surge in inventories. The Conference Board Economic Forecast estimates a 0.8% annualized GDP growth for Q3 and 1% annualized for Q4. With the third and final Q3 GDP estimate due to be released on December 19, attention will shift to Q4 and 2025. Looking into 2025, some economists watch the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool, which gives a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.2

  • Market Performance

Equity markets have seen strong, if uneven, performance in 2024. As of the end of October, the S&P 500 index was up 19.62% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 10.81%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ increased 20.54%.3 

Bonds have also shown volatility in 2024. As of October 31, the total return of the 10-Year Treasury Note was 4.28%.4

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. The return and principal value of financial markets will fluctuate as conditions change.

Key Takeaways

  • Up Markets Can Still Experience Volatility

While equity markets had strong overall performance in 2024, stocks did not go up in a straight line. There were some scary moments for investors, like April 12, when inflation and geopolitical worries saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average slide by 1.24%, the S&P 500 tumble by 1.46%, and the Nasdaq pull back by 1.62%. That bad day for the markets was dwarfed by August 5, when worries about slowing U.S. economic growth caused the Dow to fall more than 1,000 points, or 2.6%, while the broader S&P 500 lost 3% and the Nasdaq fell 3.4%.5,6

As disconcerting as these pullbacks felt at the time, stocks returned to record highs by September. An important lesson from this year is that stocks can, and often do, go down. It’s also critical to know that, on average, stocks have corrected approximately every two years, and that correction typically lasts a few months. Corrections, which are declines of between 10% and 20% from a recent high, can occur for a variety of reasons, including when unexpected news shakes investors’ confidence. Selling investments during a downturn may lock in your losses and lower your potential long-term returns.7

  • Don’t Fight the Fed

The past year has reinforced the influence the Federal Reserve has over the markets and investor psychology. The Fed held rates steady for much of 2024. It wasn’t until the September meeting that they made an adjustment. Markets reacted to every Fed meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell press conference. With inflation down from its highs (but not yet at the Fed’s 2% target) and employment softening, but not cratering, the Fed may have orchestrated the oft-talked-about “soft landing” for the economy. The lesson learned for next year is to pay attention to what the Fed is doing and remember the old Wall Street saying, “Don’t fight the Fed.”

  • Markets Shift Focus in an Instant

We all know that stocks can be volatile, but we only seem to care when they are volatile on the downside. Those 24 hours of angst between August 5 and 6, when the Dow dropped more than 1,000 points due in part to angst over the Bank of Japan boosting interest rates at a time when investors were borrowing the yen on the cheap to buy higher-risk stocks and derivatives. I doubt many of us had “Bank of Japan” on our radar, but market psychology can shift abruptly from “it’s all good” to “the sky is falling” without much justification. Focus can flip from concerns over an overheating economy to fears of a job-crushing recession on a dime. One lesson we hope you take away from 2024 is not to let emotions control your investment decisions. A solid financial strategy should be designed to withstand short-term market moves and keep you on track toward your long-term financial goals.9

  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) is Here to Stay

AI has been a major market story in 2023 and 2024 and shows no signs of slowing. While AI has been advancing for decades, innovations in machine learning have found exciting and extraordinary new use cases in areas from healthcare to manufacturing. One popular chatbot jump-started the current AI interest, reaching 100 million monthly active users just two months after its launch, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history.8 

AI is being seen as the most innovative technology of the 21st century and has the potential to both enhance and disrupt major industries. Innovations in electricity and personal computers unleashed investment booms of as much as 2% of U.S. GDP as the technologies were adopted into the broader economy. Now, investment in artificial intelligence is ramping up quickly and could eventually have an even bigger impact on GDP, according to Goldman Sachs Economics Research.10

The AI lesson to take away from 2024 is that AI is not just focused on a handful of companies. Company interest in AI has already increased rapidly, with more than 16% of enterprises in the Russell 3000 mentioning the technology on earnings calls, up from less than 1% in 2016.10 

  • Asset Allocation is Essential

Asset allocation is an approach to help manage, but not eliminate, investment risk in the event that security prices decline. The strategy involves spreading your investments across a wide range of assets to spread the risk associated with concentrating too heavily on any single investment. Simply put, diversification is the “don’t keep all your eggs in one basket” approach to portfolio construction.

Asset allocation is more than choosing a single investment, like one that is based on the S&P 500 stock index. One of the more significant and concerning trends in recent years has been the rise of market-cap-weighted indexes, which has led to increased concentration in just a few dominant stocks, mostly in the technology sector. Due to their outsized market capitalizations, these stocks, dubbed “The Magnificent 7,” may make up a disproportionate part of some investor portfolios. Another lesson from 2024 is that the downside can be significant when heavily concentrated stocks pull back simultaneously.11

  • Emergency Preparedness is Always Critical

The year 2024 has shown us that unexpected economic downturns or crises can impact investors without warning. You should consider having an emergency fund to cover living expenses so you aren’t forced to make short-term decisions that could impact your long-term goals. You should also work with a financial professional to discuss risk management strategies that can keep you moving toward your goals.

  • Prepare for What You Can, Don’t Overreact to What You Can’t

With the presidential election now behind us, potential tax and regulation policy transitions remain. Politically speaking, implementing policy goals and regulations is more challenging than making pledges. Be ready to shift strategies for you, your loved ones, and your heirs if necessary. In other areas, there may be little you can do other than to try not to overreact to what comes down from Washington. Working with financial, tax, and estate professionals can help you navigate what may happen in 2025 and beyond.

  • Applying Lessons and Looking Forward to 2025

As we reflect on the financial landscape of 2024, it’s clear that the market continues to evolve in response to global events, technological advancements, and economic policies. The lessons from this past year underscore the importance of maintaining a balanced, long-term perspective with your personal finances.

To summarize the key takeaways from 2024:

  1. Market volatility remains a constant, emphasizing the need for diversified portfolios.
  2. The Federal Reserve’s decisions continue to impact market dynamics.
  3. Emerging technologies, particularly AI, are reshaping industries and potentially creating new investment opportunities.
  4. Global events can rapidly shift market focus, reinforcing the value of a well-structured financial strategy.

Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate continued evolution in the financial sector and are committed to staying on top of these changes and providing you with timely insights and guidance. Our team is dedicated to helping you navigate the complexities of the financial world and working towards your long-term goals.

We will continue to monitor key economic indicators, policy changes, and market trends, sharing our analysis through our regular blog posts and communications. Our aim is to provide you with the information and support you need to make informed financial decisions in the coming year and beyond.

Remember, personal finance is a collaborative effort. While we provide the insights, your personal goals and circumstances are at the heart of every strategy we develop. We encourage you to reach out to us with any questions or concerns as we move into 2025.

Thank you for your continued trust in our team. We look forward to guiding you through another year of financial opportunities and challenges.

Bryan Cassick, MBA, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Sources:

1. The Wall Street Journal, September 18, 2024

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-cuts-rates-by-half-percentage-point-03566d82

2. The Conference Board, September 17, 2024

https://www.conference-board.org/publications/pdf/index.cfm?brandingURL=us-forecast

3. Yahoo.com, October 31, 2024. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. The return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. And shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

https://finance.yahoo.com/

4. Yahoo.com, October 31, 2024. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid.

https://finance.yahoo.com/

5. NBCNews.com, April 12, 2024

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/dow-tumbles-475-points-sp-500-suffers-worst-day-january-inflation-woes-rcna147647

6. NBCNews.com, August 5, 2024

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/live-blog/us-stocks-lower-asia-europe-decline-impact-rcna165129

7. American Century Investments, March 26, 2024

https://www.americancentury.com/insights/rebounding-from-market-corrections-and-bear-markets/

8. Reuters, February 2, 2023

https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/#:~:text=ChatGPT%2C%20the%20popular%20chatbot%20from%20OpenAI%2C%20is%20estimated,history%2C%20according%20to%20a%20UBS%20study%20on%20Wednesday.

9. U.S. News & World Report, August 8, 2024

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/will-the-stock-market-crash-risk-factors#job-market

10. Goldman Sachs, August 1, 2023

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/ai-investment-forecast-to-approach-200-billion-globally-by-2025

11. Institutional Investor, August 6, 2024

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2djf78zma3erdsxw8k8hs/innovation/as-mag-7-concentration-intensifies-so-too-does-the-race-to-find-diversifiers

Your 2024 Year-End Planning Guide

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As the year winds down, the hustle and bustle of the season can leave little room for financial reflection. But taking some time to review your finances now can help you close out the year on a strong note—and get your new year off to a great start. 

Here are some key items to consider before December 31 rolls around:

Unstick Your Cash … and Put It to Work

We all try to make the best decisions we can around money, but we’re not perfect. Despite our best efforts, we can miss things from time to time. 

Consider the “flypaper effect.” Jason Zweig, of The Wall Street Journal, uses the term to describe how money has a tendency to stick where it lands, even when we had other ideas for where it should end up. For many, this can happen when rolling over their employer-sponsored 401(k) retirement account into a personal IRA. According to research from Vanguard, nearly a third of savers who transferred their 401(k) balances into IRAs in 2015 still had those funds sitting in cash seven years later. This inertia can be costly. Vanguard estimates that cash-heavy IRAs cost Americans $172 billion annually in missed growth opportunities. 

As the end of the year approaches, take some time to review all your accounts to make sure all your savings have landed where you wanted them. 

It’s also okay—and in fact, often wise—to keep some money in cash, such as an emergency fund. But even these accounts are worth a review. If cash in your emergency fund is just sitting in a basic, zero-interest checking account, consider placing it in a money market, high-yield savings, or similar FDIC-backed account. There, the money should remain safe and readily accessible, while still offering a bit of interest income—especially while interest rates are still relatively high. 

Stay Updated on Retirement Account Rules

Typically, any required minimum distributions (RMDs) from your own or an inherited retirement account are due by year-end—so there’s no time to waste if you’ve not yet made any RMDs due. However, there are new rules for 2024 that could delay, or even eliminate, the need to make an RMD. As always, we recommend consulting with a tax specialist before taking any tax-planning action.

  • Roth 401(k) changes: Starting in 2024, RMDs are no longer mandatory for Roth 401(k) accounts. This was already true of Roth IRAs. If you don’t need income from your Roth 401(k) this year, leave it alone and let your savings continue to grow tax-free for as long as you like.
  • New spousal IRA benefits: If a younger spouse with an IRA passes away, the surviving spouse can now delay RMDs until the deceased would have turned 73. This allows for more years of tax-deferred growth, which can make a big difference in retirement savings over time.
  • RMD age increasing: For younger investors looking ahead, the age for RMDs will rise to 75 in 2033, again providing more time for tax-deferred growth as well as more flexibility in withdrawal strategies.

Maximize Your Gifts to Charity with Higher QCD Limits

December is a peak time for charitable giving. It’s the holidays, after all, and giving offers a meaningful way to support causes you care about while potentially reducing your 2024 tax bill. 

If you have RMDs due, one way to participate in tax-wise year-end giving is to replace some or all of your RMDs with qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) from your IRA directly to charity. This year, you may give up to $105,000 in QCDs, according to the IRS. This in turn, can lower or eliminate your RMDs, which would otherwise have been taxed at ordinary income rates. Lowering your reportable income may also help you avoid being pushed into a higher income tax bracket or subject to other tax deduction phaseouts.

Important Date Reminders

Some best practices are perennial, including keeping an eye on important dates. Naturally, there are a number of deadlines associated with year-end. For those who are itemizing deductions, it’s the deadline for 2024 tax-deductible charitable contributions. It’s also the last day you can fund your 401(k). You can contribute up to $23,000 in a 401(k) this year, and next year that limit increases to $23,500. Catch-up contributions for 401(k)s for individuals aged 50 and older is $7,500 for 2024. It will remain that way in 2025, but there will also be a higher catch-up contribution limit of $11,250 for those aged 60 through 63. 

IRAs and health savings accounts allow you to make 2024 contributions up until April 15, 2025. You’ve got a little bit of time, but the sooner you invest, the quicker you can put your money to work and take advantage of the power of compounding returns.

Rest and Recharge

While financial planning is essential, don’t overlook the importance of self-care. Amid the year-end flurry, a good night’s sleep might be one of the best investments you can make in your overall well-being, especially during the holidays. In fact, research suggests that better sleep health can reduce loneliness, spark stronger social connections, and foster positive emotional experiences.

And if it’s not better sleep, please take some time for yourself, whether it’s curling up with a good book, having dinner with friends, or taking a long walk with the dog. After all, one of the most important reasons we put so much effort into financial well-being is so we can build a more fulfilling life for ourselves and the ones we love. 

Wondering how else you can wind down 2024 and prepare for a fruitful 2025? Reach out and let’s talk.

Justin D. Rucci, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

How Will the Election Results Impact Your Financial Future?

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With election day over, many are reflecting on what this new leadership might mean for their financial future and the country. While elections can stir strong emotions, it’s important to remember that, historically, markets have been influenced more by economic fundamentals than by which party is in power.

As this chart shows, while the stock market has fluctuated under presidents of both parties, the S&P 500 has trended higher over the long term, no matter who’s sitting in the Oval Office.1

  • Long-Term Trends: The stock market, as represented by the S&P 500, has generally trended higher over the long term, regardless of which party holds the presidency.
  • Company Growth: The dynamic U.S. economy has consistently produced successful companies, contributing to economic strength under various administrations.
  • Market Priorities: Factors like earnings growth, economic conditions, and technological advancements can have more influence on market performance than political changes.
  • Investor Focus: Your investment strategy should align with your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance—not the outcome of a single election.

While elections do have consequences, it’s important to keep perspective. In the meantime, we’ll be closely monitoring how the new administration’s agenda might impact areas like tax policy, regulations, and corporate competitiveness. Market reactions to political shifts can create short-term volatility, but these fluctuations can be temporary.

As always, the key is to stay focused on your financial goals. Sudden moves in response to short-term events might be more detrimental than beneficial. We’re here to help you navigate any uncertainty while pursuing your overall financial strategy.

If you have questions about how current events could impact your investments or want to discuss your financial strategy, feel free to reach out.

Bryan Cassick, MBA, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Stocks are measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index, an unmanaged index considered representative of the overall U.S. stock market. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Stock price returns and principal values will fluctuate as market conditions change. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

1. Chart https://go.ycharts.com/hubfs/How_Do_Presidential_Elections_Impact_the_Market/Election_Guide.pdf

4 Tips for Navigating the Markets During Election Season

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We’re heading toward another contentious presidential election in the United States. If you’re on edge in this political climate, you’re not alone.

We don’t want your valid political qualms to lead you to make financial missteps. That’s why we’ve compiled four essential tips to help you maintain a level head and effectively manage your financial future in the face of political uncertainty.

1. Look at the History

Despite the month-long parade of anxiety-inducing headlines that typically precede a national election, recent history shows that elections rarely cause significant upset to financial markets.

In evaluating data from the past five presidential elections, short-term volatility does occur in the days and weeks immediately before and after the election. But those fluctuations fade quickly, and the market reverts to whatever trajectory it was already on.*

2. Enhance Your Media Literacy

In the coming months, headlines will likely try to tie every newsworthy event — big and small — into the 2024 election. While that will include financial news, it’s important to remember that small events typically don’t drive markets.

Instead, macro events move the needle. The subprime mortgage crisis sparked the Great Recession. A once-in-a-century pandemic set off economic upheaval in 2020. Be wary of headlines that try to convince you the economic world is falling off its axis because of an event that is ultimately micro in scale.

To navigate stories around the upcoming election it helps to increase your media literacy. Some sources cultivate panic or anger to drive more views, clicks, and revenue.

Use these tactics to evaluate the trustworthiness of a story:

  • Scrutinize the source. Does the individual or organization have the credentials to speak on the topic?
  • Question the melodrama. Is any emotion in the piece necessary, or is it a tactic to elicit a specific response or manipulate the reader?
  • Examine the tone. Look for words that are designed to provoke emotional reactions.
  • Consider the motive. Is the information neutral and purely informative, or is there a self-serving angle to the piece?
  • Check the facts. Is the piece based on facts or opinions? If information is being presented as factual, can you independently verify it with a reputable third party?

3. Keep Calm and Invest On

Advisors preach this all the time, but it bears repeating during a stressful news cycle: Staying invested is one of the most beneficial things you can do for your financial future.

The stock market has averaged a 10% rate of return over the past 50 years — a period that includes stagflation, the ’79 energy crisis, the dot-com bubble, the Great Recession, and Covid-19.** Those who have remained invested regardless of the economic ups and downs have seen their money grow thanks to compounding.

Instead of letting external economic forces influence your decision, look inward. Remaining focused on your personal long-term financial goals can help you stick to the plan you and your advisor have created.

4. Turn To Your Advisor for Support

If you’re struggling to maintain your serenity, reach out to your advisor. The economic chatter can be stressful and advisors are committed to helping you tune out the noise and remain focused.

Advisors can help you by:

  • Contextualizing economic headlines. Advisors spend a lot of time tracking trends and watching markets. They can fill in critical blanks when you encounter a news story that sounds scary.
  • Running stress tests. Advisors use technology to help us create hypothetical projections so they can better understand potential upside and downside risk in various macroeconomic scenarios. If you have a particular concern about a macro force, they can run that stress test on your portfolio and walk you through the results.
  • Revisiting your financial plan. Advisors are here to help you keep a level head and stay focused on what matters. They can walk through your plan together and review projections to inspire you to stay the course.

Feel free to download this guide and share it with your friends, so they too can benefit from these strategies for navigating market uncertainty during election season.

If you’re feeling uncertain or have questions about how the current events may impact your investments, don’t hesitate to reach out. We’re here to provide guidance, offer perspective, and help you stay focused on your long-term financial goals. 

WSWA

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

* Source: Bratanova-Cvetanova, K. (2024, January 24). Do stock and bond markets become more volatile around US presidential elections? FactSet Insight. https://insight.factset.com/do-stock-and-bond-markets-become-more-volatile-around-us-presidential-elections 

** Source: Price, M. (2023, November 23). Average Stock Market Return. The Motley Fool. https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/stocks/average-stock-market-return/ 

Equity Compensation: Benefits and Risks You Need to Know

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A small slice of equity compensation can boost your income, while a larger slice might bring a significant financial windfall. However, luck and careful management play crucial roles. Balancing the risks and rewards of your equity compensation is essential. Understanding how it fits into your overall financial plan can help you maximize benefits and avoid concentration risk—the danger of having too much wealth in one stock.

Equity Compensation Basics 

Equity compensation comes in various forms, such as stock options, restricted stock units, or employee stock purchase plans. The equity package you receive might come with a vesting schedule, which determines how quickly you’re able to take ownership of your shares. For companies, these vesting schedules accomplish an important goal: They help keep you around longer.

Understanding every part of your equity compensation package is essential. This includes vesting rules, types of shares, expiration dates for exercising stock options, and tax implications. Missing an expiration date can mean losing the chance to buy company stock at a discount, and knowing the tax details can help you manage your tax burden and retain more of your hard-earned equity. While you don’t need to master every detail, it’s crucial to understand your equity compensation offer.

At Warren Street, we guide clients through the wealth-building potential of their executive compensation packages. We help you maximize opportunities, integrate the package with your broader financial goals, and collaborate with other resources. For example, your company’s HR department or benefits administrator can provide details, your accountant can advise on taxes, and a lawyer can help with legal aspects and estate planning related to your equity compensation.

Understanding the Risks of Equity Compensation

One downside of equity compensation is that it can tie up a large portion of your wealth in a single stock. This is known as concentration risk. 

Not all risk is bad. In fact, a foundational part of investing is taking on risk in exchange for potentially higher returns. This is systemic risk—the risk inherent in the financial markets at large. However, concentration risk means your wealth is closely tied to one company’s performance, posing significant danger if the company faces issues like scandals or competitive disruptions.

Relying on your employer for income and savings can be risky. If the company performs poorly, you could lose both your job and a significant part of your wealth. For example, during the 2020 pandemic, ridesharing company stock prices tended to lose value as ridership plummeted. These companies laid off thousands of workers, and employees lost both jobs and equity value.

“But” you may counter, “I know my own company, and I’m confident its future is bright.” This is a common reaction—and may be a sign you’re falling into a common behavioral tendency known as familiarity bias. It can lead you to the false assumption that your own company is safer, and your familiarity may actually be keeping you from making a level-headed investment decision. Instead, lean on objective data and research rather than feelings to inform your investment decisions. 

Solving Concentration Risk 

Minimize concentration risk by diversifying, carefully divesting company shares, and investing in broad market funds. This approach smooths out volatility, maximizes long-term returns, and manages systemic risks.

If you work for a privately held company, selling your shares can be more tricky—and perhaps not possible. In that case, we can help you explore options to reduce risk. For example, that may mean building a larger emergency fund to give you more protection from the unexpected or exploring financial strategies to hedge your equity position. 

No matter your equity compensation package, you don’t have to navigate its complexities alone. Contact us to discuss your options and maximize your financial potential.

Bryan Cassick, MBA, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Young Investor’s Guide to Building a Financial Future—Part 2: Investing for Your Goals

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In the first installment of our Young Investor’s Guide to Building a Financial Future, we looked at avoiding credit card debt to set you off to a healthy start, the benefits of investing over the long term and the advantages of doing so in a retirement account, such as a 401(k) or IRA.

In the second part of this two-part series, we discuss three more investment concepts every young investor may want to embrace:

  • The importance of diversification
  • The dangers of market timing and stock picking
  • The benefits of investing according to a plan that fits your personal goals

Get Diversified

Short-term market swings can challenge even the most resilient investors. However, history shows that over the long term, markets tend to smooth out and trend upward. Diversifying your investments involves spreading risk across various types of assets, not just increasing the number of holdings.

While this may make intuitive sense, many investors come to us believing they are well-diversified when they are not. They often hold numerous stocks or funds across multiple accounts, yet upon examination, their portfolios are heavily skewed towards large U.S. companies or narrow market sectors. Diversification is effective because various investments respond differently to market shifts. When one falters, others may thrive, balancing overall portfolio performance. However, if holdings are too similar, the benefits of diversification diminish over time.

In short: 

Investing in a wide range of assets from different sectors, sizes, and geographies can create a robust portfolio that is better equipped to handle market fluctuations over time.

Avoid Speculating

Focusing on broad market indices helps avoid detrimental speculative behaviors that can harm long-term returns. 

Market timing—buying and selling stocks based on breaking news and short-term market movements—often turn out poorly. Because you’re typically buying into hot trends and selling when conditions are scary, you end up buying when prices are high or selling when prices are low. In both cases, that behavior can significantly impact savings and hinder financial goals

In fact, research consistently shows that investors’ attempts at market timing generally underperform broader indices like the S&P 500, with average equity fund investors trailing by approximately 5.5% in 2023 due to poor timing decisions according to a long-running annual survey of investor behavior by DALBAR.

Similarly, stock picking can reduce diversification and increase concentration risk, where a few stocks can heavily influence your portfolio’s performance. Investors are typically rewarded for taking on systematic risk, or risk inherent to the entire market. Concentration risk is not systematic. It is specific to individual stocks and doesn’t reliably yield rewards. Holding a significant portion of your portfolio in a few stocks exposes you to outsized impacts; for example, a single company’s bankruptcy could lead to substantial losses.

It’s also exceedingly difficult to pick stocks that will outperform the broader market over time. In 2023, over 70% of companies in the S&P 500 Index underperformed the index. These results vary from year to year. But since a handful of companies often drive most of the stock market’s returns, choosing just when to sell the future losers and buy the next big winners can end up becoming an impossible—and often losing—game. 

In short: 

Timing the market can lead you to buy stocks when they’re expensive and lock in losses by selling during downturns. When it comes to stock picking, it’s exceedingly difficult to pick single stocks that will be winners, and holding concentrated stock positions can introduce uncompensated risk to your portfolio. Instead, build a diversified portfolio as part of your long-term financial plan. 

Follow a Plan That Fits Your Goals

So how should you divide up your diversified investments? Start with your asset allocation, which is how your portfolio is spread among asset classes including stocks, bonds and cash. Then base your asset allocation on your personal goals, tolerance for risk and the length of time you have to invest. 

In short:  

Build your portfolio based on your personal goals, risk tolerance and time horizon rather than chasing or fleeing hot or cold investments or focusing on generalized rules of thumb.

Interested in learning more about how to take the first steps toward meeting your personal financial goals? Reach out to set up a time, and let’s talk. 

Bryan Cassick, MBA, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Young Investor’s Guide to Building a Financial Future—Part 1: Where Do You Start?

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The future looks bright for younger investors. A 2024 analysis by the Investment Company Institute found that, adjusted for inflation, Gen Zers have nearly three times more retirement assets than Gen Xers did at the same age. This shift is largely due to improvements in the retirement system, such as 401(k)s and employee stock purchase plans.

For new investors, getting started can be overwhelming. With so much information out there, it can be hard to know where to start. The good news is that understanding a few basic principles can set you on the path to a healthy financial future.

In this first of a two-part series, we’ll cover three key concepts for young investors:

  • Getting started on the right foot by avoiding debt
  • Embracing the power of long-term investing
  • Making the most of tax-advantaged accounts

Avoid the Vicious Cycle of Credit Card Debt

Debt impacts your financial life, reducing money available for future growth. Every dollar spent on paying down a credit card bill or car loan is one less dollar that can grow for your future. Minimizing bad debt is essential for a strong financial future.

Not all debt is bad. Low-interest student loans and reasonable mortgages can be beneficial as you can follow a career path or build equity. However, high-interest credit card debt can quickly become expensive and hinder your ability to save and invest.

Credit card debt is particularly harmful due to high interest rates, often around 20% or more. If you carry a balance, interest accrues, and making only minimum payments means your debt grows over time. For example, let’s say you have $1,000 in debt on a credit card with a 20% interest rate. If you only make minimum payments of 2%, it will take you 195 months—more than 16 years—just to pay off this single debt. In that time, you will have paid $2,126.15 in interest—more than double the amount of your original debt. 

In short: 

Use high-interest debt cautiously and pay off your credit card balance quickly. This avoids debt cycles and frees up cash for saving and investing.

Stay Invested for the Long Haul

As a young investor, you may have limited funds, but you have plenty of time. Decades until retirement mean your modest investments can grow significantly.

This growth is due to compounding returns—earning returns on your returns. The longer your money is invested, the more it benefits from exponential growth.  In tax-advantaged retirement accounts, these benefits are magnified as tax-deferred and tax-free growth allows even more money to compound over time. 

In short: 

The longer you stay invested, the more your investments can grow exponentially, thanks to compounding returns.

Make the Most of Tax-Advantaged Retirement Accounts 

The government incentivizes saving for the future by offering substantial tax benefits through retirement savings plans like 401(k)s and individual retirement accounts (IRAs). 

Employer-sponsored plans such as 401(k)s allow you to contribute pretax income, with a maximum contribution of $23,000 in 2024. Additionally, many employers match your contributions, essentially offering free money. Contribute enough to receive these matches to maximize your benefits. 

During tax season, neither your contributions nor your employer’s contributions are taxed as income, and investments within the account grow tax-deferred. You won’t have to pay any taxes until you start taking withdrawals from that account, encouraging the growth of your savings through compounding. Eventual withdrawals are taxed at ordinary income tax rates and withdrawing before age 59½ may incur a 10% penalty on top of regular taxes.

If you want to save even more, consider traditional IRAs, which also permit pre-tax contributions (up to $7,000 in 2024). Like 401(k)s, investments in traditional IRAs grow tax-deferred, with withdrawals taxed as ordinary income. 

Alternatively, there is one other account: Roth IRAs. Unlike traditional IRAs, Roth IRA contributions are after-tax, meaning contributions aren’t tax-deductible, but withdrawals in retirement are tax-free. This arrangement is advantageous, especially for younger investors in lower income tax brackets, as investments grow tax-free.  After your account has been open for five years, you can access your principal contributions penalty-free. However, withdrawing investment gains before age 59½ may incur penalties. Nonetheless, it’s essential to view retirement funds as a last-resort resource and prioritize long-term saving goals over short-term needs.

In short:  

Maximize contributions to retirement plans to leverage their tax-sheltered growth. and take full advantage of employer matching contributions to optimize benefits.

Next up, we’ll take a look at the importance of building a diversified investment portfolio, why speculating can harm your long-term prospects, and how to build an investment plan that meets your individual goals. 

Interested in learning more about how to take the first steps toward meeting your personal financial goals? Reach out to set up a time, and let’s talk.

Bryan Cassick, MBA, CFP®

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

3 Financial Best Practices for Year-End 2023

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Scan the financial headlines these days, and you’ll see plenty of potential action items vying for your year-end attention. Some may be particular to 2023. Others are timeless traditions. Here are our three favorite items worth tending to as 2024 approaches… plus a thoughtful reflection on how to make the most of the remaining year.  

1. Bolster Your Cash Reserves

With some high yield savings options currently offering ~5%+ annual interest rates, your fallow cash is finally able to earn a nice little bit while it sits. Sweet! Two thoughts here: 

Mind Where You’ve Stashed Your Cash: If your cash savings is still sitting in low- or no-interest accounts, consider taking advantage of the attractive rates available in other options. If you’re unsure where to start, we can help you figure out whether a high yield savings account, a CD, or treasury bonds may make sense for you. Your cash savings typically includes money you intend to spend within the next year or two, as well as your emergency, “rainy day” reserves.

Put Your Cash in Context: While current rates across many accounts are appealing, don’t let this distract you from your greater investment goals. Even at today’s higher rates, your cash reserves are eventually expected to lose their spending power in the face of inflation. Today’s rates don’t eliminate this issue … remember, inflation is also on the high side, so that 5% isn’t as amazing as it may seem. Once you have your cash stashed in those high-interest savings accounts, you’re likely better off allocating your remaining assets into your investment portfolio—and leaving the dollars there for pursuing your long game.  

2. Polish Your Portfolio

While we don’t advocate using your investment reserves to chase money market rates, there are still plenty of other actions you can take to maintain a tidy portfolio mix. For this, it’s prudent to perform an annual review of how your investments are growing. Year-end is as good a milestone as any for this activity. For example, you can: 

Rebalance: In 2023, year-to-date stock returns may warrant rebalancing back to plan, especially if you can do so within your tax-sheltered accounts. If you are an existing Warren Street client, this is already being handled on your behalf.

Relocate: With your annual earnings coming into focus, you may wish to shift some of your investments from taxable to tax-sheltered accounts, such as traditional or Roth IRAs, HSAs, and 529 College Savings Plans. For many of these, you have until next April 15, 2024 to make your 2023 contributions. But you don’t have to wait if the assets are available today, and it otherwise makes tax-wise sense. 

Redirect: Year-end can also be a great time to redirect excess wealth toward personal or charitable giving. Whether directly or through a Donor Advised Fund, you can donate highly appreciated investments out of your taxable accounts and into worthy causes. You stand to reduce current and future taxes, and your recipients get to put the assets to work right away. 

3. Minimize Your Taxes

Speaking of taxes, there are always plenty of ways to manage your current and lifetime tax burdens—especially as your financial numbers and various tax-related deadlines come into focus toward year-end. For example:

RMDs and QCDs: Retirees and IRA inheritors should continue making any obligatory Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) out of their IRAs and similar tax-sheltered accounts. With the 2022 Secure Act 2.0, the penalty for missing an RMD will no longer exceed 25% of any underpayment, rather than the former 50%. But even 25% is a painful penalty if you miss the December 31 deadline. If you’re charitably inclined, you may prefer to make a year-end Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD), to offset or potentially eliminate your RMD burden. 

Harvesting Losses … and Gains: Depending on market conditions and your own portfolio, there may still be opportunities to perform some tax-loss harvesting in 2023, to offset current or future taxable gains from your account. As long as long-term capital gains rates remain in the relatively low range of 0%–20%, tax-gain harvesting might be of interest as well. Work with your tax-planning team to determine what makes sense for you. If you are an existing Warren Street client, we will automatically tax loss harvest for you.

How else can we help you tend to your 2023 plans and till the soil for 2024? Please be in touch for additional ideas and best-practice advice. 

Cary Facer

Partner Emeritus, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Beyond the Market: Understanding Your Investment Performance

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Sometimes, it pays to strive for greener grass. But as an investor, second-guessing a stable strategy can leave you in the weeds. Trading in reaction to excitement or fear tricks you into buying high (chasing popular trends) and selling low (fleeing misfortunes), while potentially incurring unnecessary taxes and transaction costs along the way. 

Still, what do you do if you’re unsure about how your investments stack up?

Compared to the Stocks du Jour?

It’s easy to be dazzled by popular individual stocks or sectors that have been earning more than you have and wonder whether you should get in on the action. 

You might get lucky and buy in ahead of the peaks, ride the surges while they last, and manage to jump out before the fads fade. Unfortunately, even experts cannot foresee the countless coincidences that can squash a high-flying holding or send a different one soaring. To succeed at this gambit, you must correctly—and repeatedly—decide when to get in, and when to get out … in markets where unpredictable hot hands can run anywhere from days to years. 

Remember, too, just by investing your money in the global stock market overall and sitting tight, you’ll probably already own some of today’s hot holdings. You’ll also automatically hold some of the next big winners, before they surge (effectively buying low).  

Rather than comparing your investments to the latest sprinters, be the tortoise, not the hare. Get in, stay in, and focus on your own finish line. It’s the only one that matters.

Compared to “The Market”?

What if your investments seem to be performing differently not just from the high-flyers, but from the entire market? Maybe you’re seeing reports of “the market” returning a different amount than what you are experiencing. 

Remember, when a reporter, analyst, or other experts discusses market performance, they’re usually citing returns from the S&P 500 Index, the DJIA, or a similar proxy. These popular benchmarks often represent one asset class: U.S. large-cap stocks. As such, it’s highly unlikely your own portfolio will always be performing anything like this single source of expected returns. 

Most investors instead prefer to balance their potential risks and rewards. For example, if your portfolio is a 50/50 mix of stocks and bonds, you should expect it to underperform an all-stock portfolio over time. But it also should deliver more dependable (if still not guaranteed) returns in the end, along with a relatively smoother ride along the way. 

Even if you’re more heavily invested in stocks than bonds, a well-diversified stock portfolio will typically include multiple sources of risks and returns, such as U.S., international, and emerging market stocks; small- and large-cap stocks; value and growth stocks; and other underrepresented sources of expected return. 

Thus, we advise against comparing your portfolio’s performance to “the market.” Usually, any variance simply means your well-structured, globally diversified portfolio is working as planned. 

In Summary

Admittedly, it can be easier said than done to avoid inappropriate performance comparisons across shifting times and unfolding events. But your portfolio should be structured to reflect your financial goals and your ability to tolerate the risks involved in pursuing your desired level of long-term growth. 

In roaring bull and scary bear markets alike, we team up with you to address these critical questions about your investments. That way, you can accurately assess where you stand and where you’d like to go from here. 

Please reach out to your advisor if you’d like to discuss further. We are always here for you!

WSWA

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Financial Quick Takes: Making Mistakes

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Nobody wants to make investment mistakes. And yet, we’re human; mistakes happen. Here’s how to minimize the ones that matter the most, and make the most of the ones that remain. 

Bad Decisions vs. Bad Outcomes

First, let’s define what we’re talking about: 

Investment mistakes happen when you make bad decisions, regardless of whether the outcome is good or bad. 

Bad decisions are the ones a rational investor would not make. For example: 

  • Failing to spread your risks around: Concentrating in too few securities, instead of diversifying across many, and many types of investments. 
  • Confusing speculating with investing: Chasing or fleeing hot trends, instead of structuring your total portfolio to capture expected market growth over time. 
  • Taking on too much or too little investment risk for your circumstances: Investing too conservatively or too aggressively for your financial goals and risk tolerances.  
  • Overlooking taxes: Spending more than necessary to participate in the market’s expected long-term growth. 
  • Succumbing to harmful behavioral biases: Acting on gut feel over rational resolve. 

These common investment mistakes share a recurring theme: By making wise decisions about that which you can control, you can best prepare for that which you cannot. 

Damage Control

Consider auto insurance as an analogy with similar controllable choices and random risks. From hail storms to hit-and-runs, misfortunes happen. They are not your fault; they are not your mistake. But you insure against them anyway, since they can still generate a substantial loss. 

You also do all you can to minimize your “at fault” errors. You don’t drive while impaired. You keep your vehicle in safe repair. You observe traffic laws. None of these sound decisions guarantee success, but they appreciably increase the odds you’ll remain accident-free. 

As an investor, you can take a similar approach:

Mistake-free investing does not guarantee success. Rather, it improves your odds for happy outcomes, while softening the blow if misfortune strikes.

It’s worth noting, even if you make all the right investment decisions for all the right reasons, random misfortune can still strike. If it does, it would be a mistake to decide your prudent investment strategy was to blame. It would be an even worse mistake to abandon that strategy because you’ve encountered the equivalent of a market hit-and-run. This would be like dropping your insurance coverage because it didn’t prevent the accident to begin with.  

The Upside of Making Investing Mistakes

“I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” — Michael Jordan

As just about any star athlete will tell you, the path to success is paved with errors. The same can be said about investing. The occasional misguided decision may even be good for you as an investor—especially if it’s made when the stakes are smaller and time is on your side. 

The point is, if you’ve made investment mistakes in the past, don’t beat yourself up over them, or make more mistakes trying to “fix” the past (such as deciding you’ll never invest again after being burned by the market). Often, your best move is to identify which investment mistakes were involved, embrace the lessons learned, and give yourself permission to move on. 

Admittedly, if you made an investment that didn’t pay off as you hoped for, it may be hard to know just what went wrong. Was it you, the whims of the market, or both? 

Among our chief roles as a financial advisor is to help you sort out investment errors from market misfortunes, so you can move forward with greater resolve. Sometimes, this means adjusting your portfolio to reflect evolving personal financial goals or targets. Often, it means convincing you to stay the course with your already-solid plan. Either way, your future is not yet written. Reach out to us today if we can help you make the most of your next steps.

WSWA

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.