Could Social Security Really Go Away?

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Just how gloomy does its future look?

Provided by Joe Occhipinti

 

Will Social Security run out of money in the 2030s? For years, Americans have been warned about that possibility. Those warnings, however, assume that no action will be taken to address Social Security’s financial challenges.

 

Social Security is being strained by a giant demographic shift. In 2030, more than 20% of the U.S. population will be 65 or older. In 2010, only 13% of the nation was that old. In 1970, less than 10% of Americans were in that age group.1

Demand for Social Security benefits has increased, and the ratio of retirees to working-age adults has changed. In 2010, the Census Bureau determined that there were about 21 seniors (people aged 65 or older) for every 100 workers. By 2030, the Bureau projects that there will be 35 seniors for every 100 workers.1

As payroll taxes fund Social Security, the program faces a major dilemma. Actually, it faces two.

 

Social Security maintains two trust funds. When you read a sentence stating that “Social Security could run out of money by 2035,” that statement refers to the projected shortfall of the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust. The OASDI is the main reservoir of Social Security benefits, from which monthly payments are made to seniors. The latest Social Security Trustees report indeed concludes that the OASDI Trust could be exhausted by 2035 from years of cash outflows exceeding cash inflows.2,3

Congress just put a patch on Social Security’s other, arguably more pressing problem. Social Security’s Disability Insurance (SSDI) Trust Fund risked being unable to pay out 100% of scheduled benefits to SSDI recipients this year, but the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 directed a slightly greater proportion of payroll taxes funding Social Security into the DI trust for the short term. This should give the DI Trust enough revenue to pay out 100% of benefits through 2022. Funding it adequately after 2022 remains an issue.4

 

If the OASDI Trust is exhausted in 2035, what would happen to retirement benefits? They would decrease. Imagine Social Security payments shrinking 21%. If Congress does not act to remedy Social Security’s cash flow situation before then, Social Security Trustees forecast that a 21% cut may be necessary in 2035 to ensure payment of benefits through 2087.3

   

No one wants to see that happen, so what might Congress do to address the crisis? Three ideas in particular have gathered support.

 

*Raise the cap on Social Security taxes. Currently, employers and employees each pay a 6.2% payroll tax to fund Social Security (the self-employed pay 12.4% of their earnings into the program). The earnings cap on the tax in 2016 is $118,500, so any earned income above that level is not subject to payroll tax. Lifting (or even abolishing) that cap would bring Social Security more payroll tax revenue, specifically from higher-income Americans.3

 

*Adjust the full retirement age. Should it be raised to 68? How about 70? Some people see merit in this, as many baby boomers may work and live longer than their parents did. In theory, it could promote longer careers and shorter retirements, and thereby lessen demand for Social Security benefits. Healthier and wealthier baby boomers might find the idea acceptable, but poorer and less healthy boomers might not.3

 

*Calculate COLAs differently. Social Security uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Workers and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) in figuring cost-of-living adjustments. Many senior advocates argue that the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) should be used instead. The CPI-E often gives more weight to health care expenses and housing costs than the CPI-W. Not only that, the CPI-E only considers the cost of living for people 62 and older. That last feature may also be its biggest drawback. Since it only includes some of the American population in its calculations, its detractors argue that it may not measure inflation as well as the broader CPI-W.3

 

Social Security could still face a shortfall even if all of these ideas were adopted. The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College estimates that if all of these “fixes” were put into play today, the OASDI Trust would still face a revenue shortage in 2035.3

In future decades, Social Security may not be able to offer retirees what it does now, unless dramatic moves are made on Capitol Hill. In the worst-case scenario, monthly benefits would be cut to keep the program solvent. A depressing thought, but one worth remembering as you plan for the future.

 

Joe Occhipinti may be reached at 714.823.3328 or Joe@WarrenStreetWealth.com.

www.WarrenStreetWealth.com

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations
1 – money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/2014/06/16/the-youngest-baby-boomers-turn-50 [6/16/14]
2 – fool.com/retirement/general/2016/03/20/the-most-important-social-security-chart-youll-eve.aspx [3/20/16]
3 – fool.com/retirement/general/2016/03/19/1-big-problem-with-the-3-most-popular-social-secur.aspx [3/19/16]
4 – marketwatch.com/story/crisis-in-social-security-disability-insurance-averted-but-not-gone-2015-11-30 [11/30/15]

Why Aren’t You Maxing Out Your 401(k)?

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It may be the best retirement planning tool you have. 

Provided by Joe Occhipinti

 

Do you have a million dollars? At the moment, probably not. But if you invest and save diligently and let your assets compound, who knows? You may be a millionaire someday. In fact, you may need to be a millionaire someday. If you stay retired for twenty or thirty years, it could take well over $1 million to fund that retirement. In fact, Andrés Cardenal, CFA and financial analyst, recommends $1.25 million if you plan to match inflation over a three-decade retirement. This is one reason why you should contribute the maximum to your 401(k) plan.1

 

Your 401(k) is your friend. For years, employers have wondered: why don’t people contribute more to their 401(k)s? At many large companies, the majority of employees contribute too little, and some find it a hassle to even fill out the paperwork. Most people don’t speak “financial” and don’t look at financial magazines or websites. It’s “boring.” So they mentally file “401(k)” under “boring.” But the advantages of a 401(k) should not bore you; they should motivate you.

 

Tax-deferred growth and compounding. The money in your 401(k) compounds year after year without tax penalties. The earlier you start, the more compounding you get. Let’s say you put $2,400 annually in a 401(k) starting at age 30, and for the sake of example, let’s assume you get an 8% annual return. How much money would you have at 65? You would have a retirement nest egg of $437,148 from putting in $200 per month. But if you started putting in that $200 a month five years later, you would have only $285,588. You can put up to $18,000 into a traditional or “safe harbor” 401(k), and if you turn 50 or are older than 50 this year, you can put in an additional $6,000 in “catch-up” contributions. You can contribute up to $12,500 to a SIMPLE 401(k), with “catch-up” contributions of up to $3,000 if you are 50 or older. These annual contribution limits are indexed for inflation.2

 

Potential matching contributions. Who would turn down free money? Big companies will often match an employee’s 401(k) contributions. Usually, the corporate match is 50¢ for each dollar up to 6% of your salary.3

 

Reducing your taxable income. Many employees don’t recognize this benefit. Your 401(k) contributions are pulled out of your wages before taxes are withheld (pre-tax dollars). So you get reduced taxable income and tax-free growth; you pay taxes on 401(k) assets when you withdraw them from the plan. With the Roth 401(k), the contributions are after-tax (no reduction in taxable income), but you can enjoy both tax-free compounding and tax-free withdrawals.

 

Why not take advantage? If you don’t contribute greatly to your 401(k), 403(b), or 457 plan, you are ignoring a great retirement savings opportunity. Talk to your financial advisor about your 401(k) and other great resources to save for retirement.

 

Joe Occhipinti may be reached at 714.823.3328 or Joe@WarrenStreetWealth.com

www.WarrenStreetWealth.com

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

 

Citations
1 – fool.com/retirement/general/2016/01/25/how-much-money-will-you-need-in-retirement.aspx [1/25/16]
2 – irs.gov/Retirement-Plans/Plan-Participant,-Employee/Retirement-Topics-401k-and-Profit-Sharing-Plan-Contribution-Limits [10/26/15]
3 – irs.gov/Retirement-Plans/Plan-Participant,-Employee/401(k)-Resource-Guide-Plan-Participants-401(k)-Plan-Overview [10/26/15]