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Do I Have Enough to Sell My Business?

As a business owner, you’ve spent your life’s work growing your business, taking care of employees, managing your product or service, and looking after your people. Now, you may be getting to a point where your spouse tells you you work too much. Or perhaps you’re watching the clock more than you used to, counting down the minutes until you can head home and unplug from your “boss” responsibilities.

Whatever your reasoning, if you’re starting to ask questions like, “Do I have enough to sell?” and “Will that be enough?” then it’s time to focus on you for a change.

Why Business Owners Need Specialized Financial Planning

Business owners face a unique set of financial challenges and opportunities. Whether you are a small business owner or running a large corporation, the following considerations are critical:

  • Maximizing tax efficiency
  • Choosing the most appropriate retirement account type
  • Evaluating your retirement account options
  • Managing 401(k) and pension investments
  • Considering a defined benefit plan, i.e., “pension”
  • Aligning company benefits offerings with company goals

Our team specializes in helping business owners handle these and other issues while they’re still working. During those years, we help you work through proper planning techniques to diversify your assets, reduce risk, optimize your taxes, and offer competitive benefits. All of these steps help streamline and strengthen your business at the time — but they also set you up for a successful transition into retirement or your next business opportunity.

When you do get to the point of exiting, we help you bring all of this planning together into one critical decision: whether or not you have what you need to move on from your business and into your ideal retirement, whatever that looks like for you. 

Creating a Dream Retirement

At Warren Street, we’ve helped many business owner clients over the years answer the “Do I have enough to sell?” question and develop their exit strategies accordingly. 

If you choose to work with us during your own exit process, we’ll play a key role on your professional team alongside your attorney. While your attorney looks after the legal structure of the deal, we’ll handle related asset management and tax mitigation. For example, if you’re involved in an all-cash sale with multiple payments coming in the next few years, we will discuss tax deferral opportunities to add into your transition plan. Or, if you’re struggling with a go/no-go decision, we’ll conduct scenario planning to help you make an informed choice based on your current financial situation, projected future state, and personal goals.

No matter where you are in the exit planning process, we can help evaluate your current assets, investments, estate planning, and legacy goals, so you can make a clear and confident decision on what next steps are right for you.

If this sounds like you and you’re a current Warren Street client, please mention your interest to your Lead Advisor! Or, if you’re not a client but are interested in learning how we can help, schedule a complimentary introductory call with us. We hope to hear from you and look forward to exploring how we can make your post-exit dreams a reality.

Cary Facer

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Chevron 401(k) Changes: Unpacking Your New Funds

As a retired Chevron employee and financial advisor, I’m constantly keeping my finger on the pulse of what’s happening at the company. Last month, Chevron sent a letter to employees announcing that, as of June 1, the funds in their retirement plans will be changing. 

Given these updates, I wanted to take the time to make sure my Chevron connections understand what’s happening — and what it could mean for your portfolio.

What’s changing?

The gist is this: on June 1, 2023, your Fidelity NetBenefits account will reflect new investment choices. In many cases, your money will be automatically allocated to new funds. For example, If you’re currently in a Vanguard Target Retirement Date Fund, this will map to a BlackRock LifePath® Index Fund. All in all, the 16 existing investment choices will be funneled down into just 11 choices. This applies to both the Employee Savings Investment Plan (ESIP) and Deferred Compensation Plan (DCP).  

In my opinion, the most impactful change is the consolidation of three equity funds — Vanguard 500 Index, Vanguard Large Cap Value Index, and Vanguard PRIMECAP — into just one equity fund, the “Equity Index.” This is tricky, because for many people, it made sense to hold a pure S&P 500 fund such as the Vanguard 500 Index. Pure S&P 500 funds allow you to “own” the largest 500 companies in the US, compared to the “Equity Index,” which is more of a mix. 

We are currently investigating this and the other new funds to understand exactly what they entail and how they will interact with the rest of your portfolio.

What should you do?

This fund consolidation is neither good nor bad; however, it does mean that you should talk to an advisor about the impact it will have on your portfolio. The new funds have different risk and return profiles, expense ratios, and diversification characteristics than the old funds, and they’re not necessarily a direct map. It’s critical that you confirm your new funds still support your future retirement goals. 

No matter your age or retirement goals, it’s always a good practice to review your 401(k) plan on a regular basis and make sure it still aligns with your needs. The updates to the Chevron 401(k) plans are a good reminder to take a close look at yours and make any necessary changes.

If you don’t already have an advisor or are looking for a new one, I’m also happy to speak with you (no charge) about your portfolio. I’ve been helping Chevron colleagues and clients for more than 40 years and am an expert on the company’s employee benefits package. I’m available to answer any questions you have about the upcoming changes. 

Feel free to give me a call at 714-876-6200 or book time with me if you’d like to chat. I hope to hear from you and am here to help!

Len Hanson

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Why We Believe Social Security Will Endure

In planning for retirement, one topic is often top of mind: whether or not Social Security will still be around when we retire.

As we covered in a related post, When Should You Take Your Social Security, most of us have been paying into the program our entire working life. We’re counting on receiving some of that money back in retirement. 

But then there are those headlines, warning us that the Social Security trust fund is set to run dry around 2034. 

Does this mean you should grab what you can, as soon as you’re able? Let’s explain why we agree with Social Security specialist Mary Beth Franklin, who suggests the following: 

“While there may be good reasons to file for reduced Social Security benefits early, claiming Social Security prematurely out of fear is a bit like selling stocks in a down market: All you’ve guaranteed is that you’ve locked in a loss. And if future benefit cuts did materialize, the benefits of those who claimed as soon as possible would be reduced even further.” 

— Mary Beth Franklin, InvestmentNews

Still, Social Security Will Likely Change 

While we don’t expect Social Security to go bust, we do expect it will need to change in the years ahead. As its trustees have reported:

“Social Security is not sustainable over the long term at current benefit and tax rates … [and] trust fund reserves will be depleted by 2034.”

But let’s unpack this statement. First, “depleted” does not mean the Social Security Administration is going to turn out the lights and go home. It means it could run out of trust fund reserves by then, which are used to top off the total amount spent on Social Security benefits. There are still payroll taxes and other sources to cover more than 77% of the program’s payouts. So, worst case, if we did nothing but wait for the reserves to run out, we’d be forced to make hard choices about an approximate 23% shortfall starting around 2034.  

Admittedly, Social Security is between a rock and a hard place. Nobody wants to lose benefits they’ve been counting on or spend significantly more to maintain the status quo. But if we don’t do something to shore up the program’s reserves, our options will likely only worsen. 

In this context, the political will to reform Social Security seems strong, and bipartisan. As Buckingham Strategic Partners retirement planning specialist Jeffrey Levine has observed

“My gut sense is that practically no politician in America would ultimately be happy having to explain to voters why they let Social Security collapse on their watch … That’s not a great message to have to bring to voters, especially older voters who show up at the polls in the greatest numbers.”

As members of Congress wrangle over the “best” (or least abhorrent) solutions for their constituents, they have been submitting proposals behind the scenes, and the Social Security Administration has been weighing in on the estimated effect for each. 

Time will tell which proposals become legislated action, but the range of possibilities essentially falls into two broad categories: We can pay more in, or we can take less out. Most likely, we’ll need to do a bit of both. 

Possible Ways to Pay More In

To name a few ways to replenish Social Security’s reserves, Congress could: 

  1. Raise the cap on wages subject to Social Security tax: As of 2023, earnings beyond $160,200 per year are not subject to Social Security tax. There’s been talk of increasing this cap, eliminating it entirely, or reinstating it for income beyond certain high-water marks.
  1. Increase the Social Security tax rate for some or all workers: Currently, employers and employees each pay in 6.2% of their wages, for a total 12.4% up to the aforementioned wage cap. (This does not include an additional Medicare tax, which is not subject to the wage cap.) As cited in a September 2022 University of Maryland School of Public Policy report, “73% (Republicans 70%, Democrats 78%) favored increasing the payroll tax from 6.2 to 6.5%.” 
  1. Increase the tax on Social Security payouts, and direct those funds back into the program: Currently, if your “combined income” exceeds $44,000 on a joint return ($34,000 on an individual return), up to 85% of your Social Security benefit is taxable, as described here. Anything is possible, but taxing retirees more heavily seems less politically palatable than some of the other options. 
  1. Identify new funding sources: For example, one recent bipartisan proposal would establish a dedicated “sovereign-wealth fund,” seeded with government loans. Presumably, it would be structured like an endowment fund, with an investment time horizon of forever. In theory, its returns could augment more conservatively invested Social Security trust fund reserves. Other proposals have explored a range of potential new taxes aimed at filling the gap. 

Options for Taking Less Out

We could also cut back on Social Security spending. Some of the possibilities here include:

  1. Reducing benefits: Payouts could be cut across the board, or current bipartisan conversations seem focused on curtailing wealthier retirees’ benefits. 
  1. Extending the full retirement age: There are proposals to extend the full retirement age for everyone, or at least for younger workers. This would effectively reduce lifetime payouts received, no matter when you start drawing benefits. 
  1. Tinkering with COLAs: There are also bipartisan conversations about replacing the benchmark used to calculate the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA), which might lower these annual adjustments in some years. 

These are just a few of the possibilities. Some would impact everyone. Others are aimed at higher earners and/or more affluent Americans. It’s anybody’s guess which proposals make it through the political gamut, or what form they will take if they do. 

Should You Take Your Social Security Early? 

So, given the uncertainties of the day, should you start drawing benefits sooner than you otherwise would? An objective risk/reward analysis helps guide the way. 

Many investors feel “safer” taking their Social Security as soon as possible, to avoid losing what seems like a bird in the hand. However, the appeal of this approach is often fueled by deep-seated loss aversion. Academic insights suggest we dislike the thought of losing money about twice as much as we enjoy the prospect of receiving more of it. Thus, we tend to cringe more over a potential loss of promised benefits than we factor in the substantial rewards we stand to gain by waiting. Put another way: 

You’re not reducing your financial risks by taking Social Security early. You’re only changing which risks you’re taking. In exchange for an earlier and more assured payout, you’re also accepting a permanent, cumulative cut to your ongoing benefits. 

If this still seems like a fair trade-off, consider that Social Security is one of the few sources of retirement income ideally structured to offset three of retirement’s greatest risks: 

  1. Life expectancy risk: In an annuity-like fashion, Social Security is structured to continue paying out, no matter how long you and your spouse live. 
  2. Inflation risk: The payouts are adjusted annually to keep pace with inflation. 
  3. Market risk: Even in bear markets, Social Security keeps paying, with no drop in benefits.  

In short, if you are willing and able to wait a few extra years to receive a permanently higher payout, you can expect to better manage all three of these very real retirement risks over time. 

This is not to say everyone should wait until their Full Retirement Age or longer to start taking Social Security. When is the best time for you and your spouse to start drawing benefits? Rather than hinging the decision on uncontrollable unknowns, we recommend using your personal circumstances as your greatest guide. Consider the retirement risks that most directly apply to you and yours, and chart your course accordingly. 

But you don’t have to go it alone. Please be in touch if we can assist you with your Social Security planning, or with any other questions you may have as you prepare for your ideal retirement.

Emily Balmages, CFP®

Director of Financial Planning, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

When Should You Take Your Social Security?

Ever since President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the 1935 Social Security Act, most Americans have pondered this critical question as they approach retirement: 

“When should I (or we) start taking my (or our) Social Security?”

And yet, the “right” answer to this common query remains as elusive as ever. It depends on a wide array of personal variables, including how the unknowable future plays out. 

No wonder many families find themselves in a quandary when it comes to taking their Social Security benefits. Let’s take a closer look at how to find the right balance for you.

Social Security Planning: A Balancing Act

For Social Security planning purposes, you reach full retirement age (FRA) between ages 66–67, depending on the year you were born. However, you can generally begin drawing Social Security benefits as early as age 62 (with the lowest available monthly starting payments) or as late as age 70 (for the highest available monthly starting payments). 

Retirees are often advised to wait at least until their full retirement age, if not until age 70 to begin taking Social Security. In raw dollars, waiting to take your Social Security often works out to be the best deal for many families. Plus, these days, many of us choose to work well into our 60s, 70s, and beyond. Some analyses have even factored in the cost of spending down other assets while you wait, rather than using them for continued investment growth. The conclusion is the same. 

However, you’re not “many families.” You’re your family. Your personal and practical circumstances may mean this general rule of thumb won’t point to your best choice. Following are some of the most common factors that may influence whether to start taking Social Security sooner or later. 

  • Alternative Income Sources: First, and perhaps most obviously, if you have few or no alternative income sources once your paychecks stop, you may not have the luxury of waiting. You may need to start taking Social Security as soon as possible. 
  • Life Expectancy: If you’re considering the benefits of waiting until age 70 to take Social Security, remember that this strategy assumes you live to at least the average age someone your age and gender is likely to reach. Even if you can afford to wait, you’ll want to factor in whether your health, lifestyle, and family history justify doing so. 
  • Estate Planning: Have you placed a high or low priority on leaving as much as possible to your heirs and/or favorite charities after you pass? Your preferences here may influence how, and from where you’ll spend down your inheritable estate, which in turn may influence the timing of your Social Security enrollment. 
  • Employment: How likely is it you’ll keep working until your FRA? Once you reach it, you can collect full Social Security benefits, even if you’re still working. But until then, your earnings may reduce your Social Security benefits.
  • Marital Status: If you’re married, one of you has probably paid in more to Social Security. One is likely to live longer. You may retire at different times, and your ages probably differ. All these factors can complicate the equation. You’ll want to consider the timing, rules, and outcomes under various scenarios—such as when and whether to take Social Security as an earner, the spouse of an earner, the widow or widower of an earner, or an ex-spouse of an earner—while also factoring in whether you and/or your spouse are still working prior to your FRAs, as described above. Ideal start dates for one scenario may not be ideal for another. 
  • Other Circumstances: Beyond your marital status, there are other factors that may influence your timing decisions if they apply to you—such as if you’re a business owner, you live abroad, you qualify for Social Security Disability, or your children qualify for Social Security benefits under your account. 
  • Income Taxes: We find many pre-retirees don’t realize that up to 85% of their Social Security income may be taxable. Your annual Social Security income also figures into your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI), which can push you past thresholds for incurring Medicare surcharges (beginning at age 65, based on your MAGI from two years prior). Bottom line, broad tax planning may influence your timing as well. 

Degrees of Control 

Clearly, there’s a lot to think about when deciding when to start taking Social Security. Whether you’re going it alone or with a financial planner, here’s one piece of advice that should help: 

Control what you can. Let go of what you can’t.

What do we mean by that? There are many known factors you can include in your Social Security planning. You know your marital status. You can access your Social Security account and/or use a calculator to estimate your benefits. You can make educated guesses about your life expectancy, how long you’ll work, and so on. Also, if you’ve delayed taking Social Security past your FRA, you may be able to change your mind … to a point. You can file to collect up to six months of retroactive benefits if you end up needing the income sooner than planned. 

You can use all of this planning information and more to make reasonable assumptions and timely decisions about when to take your Social Security. 

After that, we recommend going easy on yourself if (or more realistically, when) some of your plans don’t go as planned. Come what may, you’ve done your best. Instead of channeling energy into regretting good decisions, use it to make judicious adjustments whenever new assumptions arise. By consistently focusing on what we know rather than what we hope or fear, we remain best positioned to shift course as warranted in the face of adversity. 

Whether you’re planning to file for Social Security or you’re already drawing it, we appreciate the opportunity to help you and your family make good choices about when, and how to manage your available options. We hope you’ll contact us today to learn more.

Cary Facer

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Chevron Employees: How to Retire in 2023

As a former Chevron employee and current financial advisor, I know firsthand that planning for retirement can be daunting. You might be asking yourself questions like:

  • How do I anticipate all the different factors that go into retirement?
  • How much money is enough?
  • What if I have an unexpected expense in retirement?

If you’re feeling like 2023 is your year but are afraid to take the plunge, read on. These are the top three considerations I discuss with my Chevron friends and clients when they ask me those questions.

1. Wait until at least age 55.

Every case is different, but in general, it’s best to wait until at least age 55 to retire. Every year you wait increases the likelihood you won’t run out of money. 

Talk to your advisor about scenario planning (more on that in the next point) to figure out what age makes sense for your specific situation. And remember, there are always exceptions to this advice if it’s a matter of your health or other serious issues.

2. Determine your post-retirement budget.

When you picture your life in retirement, what does it look like? Are you jet-setting the world with your spouse, or enjoying a quiet life at home with your grandkids? Working a part-time job to stay busy, or finally pursuing your hobbies and passions full-time? Upgrading to the big truck you always had your eye on, or getting every last mile out of your current ride?

These are important considerations, as they’ll impact the amount of money you’ll need in retirement. If you think you’ll have similar cash flow needs in retirement as now, that’s important to know. Or, if you anticipate boosting your spending on vacations, supporting other family members, etc., that also needs to be taken into account. Once you have determined your budget needs pre- and post-retirement, your advisor can help you put together a strategy around your paychecks, how much to save in the plan, and what number you need to hit to retire.

3. Do scenario planning.

We offer free scenario planning, called a Monte Carlo analysis, to help clients measure whether they could retire successfully. This simulation runs thousands of different scenarios based on your personal financial data. Then, it analyzes your “probability of success” in reaching the amount of money you’ll need at your desired retirement age. Best of all, this is a key tool for answering the question, “How much money do I need to retire?”

Whether it’s with Warren Street or another financial advisor, ask your advisor to help you put together a plan that accounts for these different situations, so you can set yourself up for success. As long as you have the relevant information ready to share with us — such as your current assets, expected savings, and time horizon — the analysis process takes no longer than 30 minutes. That’s a short amount of time to invest in your peace of mind!

Many Chevron employees are looking to retire this year, especially given that Chevron stock prices have generally held up. Whether you’re in the “this is my year” camp or still have another five years in you, I’d love to talk with you. Let’s put the numbers together and see what’s possible. I’m here to answer your questions and help you run the numbers, but the final decision is always yours.

Len Hanson

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Perks of a California Retirement

Having a comfortable retirement doesn’t necessarily mean leaving The Golden State behind.

In our California-based advising firm we often see clients who would like to move out of the state at retirement (or sooner). There are plenty of reasons to re-settle, and if your only reason is “I want to” then that is good enough for us. But the retirement of your dreams doesn’t necessarily mean you need to pack up and move. Call us biased…but we love The Golden State! 

The State Tax Problem

A major concern for Californians is taxes. Our top state tax bracket is the highest in the nation. However, a retiree’s taxable income is not often in the highest bracket. The tax rates for most middle (and even upper-middle) class taxpayers are comparable to, and sometimes lower than, those in several other states.

To illustrate: in 2021 a single California taxpayer’s taxable income between $61,215 and $375,221 will be taxed at 9.3%. Compare that to a nice midwestern state like Minnesota. Their very top tax bracket is 9.85%, but it starts at taxable income over $166,041. So if your taxable income is between $166,041 and $375,221, you will pay similar state taxes whether you are in California or Minnesota.

Let’s look at a more realistic retirement income. Taxable income in retirement for an average married couple might be around $85,000. In California, their effective state tax rate for 2021 would be about 2.40%. If the couple decided to move to Arizona (a low tax state) in retirement, their effective state tax rate would be about 1.87%. That’s a difference of just $450 per year. Uprooting and moving states to save $450 in a year may not really be worth it!

It is true that state taxes are much lower in many other states. There are even states with no state income tax. But these states offset their lack of income tax with sales tax, property taxes, and other local taxes. The bottom line is: no state is going to let you put down roots for free. While California certainly is not the most taxpayer friendly state, for a large portion of residents the higher tax brackets are not going to be a factor.

Quality of Life in California

Two major considerations for quality of life are staying physically active and staying socially engaged. We know that a sedentary, perpetually isolated lifestyle is bad for your health. The mild-to-warm weather in California means your favorite activities can usually continue year-round, keeping you moving and socializing consistently throughout your life.

California has something for everyone. Do you prefer vibrant evenings out in the city or quiet mountain escapes? Yoga on the beach? Pickleball in the suburbs? Hiking in the desert? It’s all here.

Why Warren Street Loves CA

Why else does our team love California? When asked “What are some reasons a person might want to retire in California?” here is what we had to say:

  • “Many job prospects for those who want to have a part-time retirement living.”
  • “On the tax note, Prop 13 and Prop 19 can keep CA property taxes low.”
  • “Good access to medical care and good doctors in most of CA.”  
  • “Diverse population and diverse cultures in CA.”  
  • “California is a great hub for entertainment and tourism.” 
  • “Home to multiple beaches, national parks, etc.” 
  • “CA is the largest municipal bond market by issuance.” 
  • “In-N-Out.”

Every state has something great to offer. Above all, we love to see our clients happy and living their best life – before and after retirement.

Do you want to continue your California dream after you retire? Or do you want to try somewhere new? Whatever your goals, Warren Street is here to help you make them reality.

Kirsten C. Cadden, CFP®

Associate Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

References:

https://www.thebalance.com/state-income-tax-rates-3193320

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/california-state-tax

https://smartasset.com/taxes/california-tax-calculator

5 Bare Essentials to Consider When Retiring from SCE

Retirement can seem like the most exciting thing in the world — and the most overwhelming. On one hand, you finally get to spend your time on your terms. Maybe that’s traveling the world. Maybe it’s spending more time with your grandkids. Or maybe it’s just spending quiet evenings at home. 

Still, there’s that lingering question: “How does this all work?” So much goes into planning for retirement, as well as managing your money appropriately once you get to that point. It can be unnerving to consider how you’ll manage the nuances of your retirement plan, navigate Social Security benefits, and ensure you have the money you need to support your lifestyle in retirement. 

At Warren Street Wealth Advisors, we hear these concerns from clients often. In response, we’ve developed a specialty focus on retirement planning for Southern California Edison employees. After helping hundreds of SCE retirees navigate this crucial time, we know your retirement packages and employee benefits programs inside and out. Below are the top five bare essentials you need to know to retire from SCE.

1. Take your final distribution when you want.

It’s a common misconception that you are forced to take your final distribution at retirement, but that’s not the case. You can wait until Jan. 1, request your final distribution, and then take a direct payment to avoid penalties using the “55 Rule” if you are 55 years or older. This will also allow you to defer the income tax due until the following year’s tax return.

2. Understand that it’s possible to retire penalty-free between age 55 and 59 ½.

Here’s a scenario we see all the time: you’re 57. You want to retire. You don’t want to wait until 59 ½ to do it. But you know that there’s a 10% federal tax penalty and a 2.5% California state tax penalty if you take the money out of your IRA before 59 ½. So are you stuck? Nope.

There are a lot of moving parts to this process, but we can take advantage of IRS rules like 72(t) distributions or the previously mentioned “55 Rule” to ensure our clients do everything possible to avoid paying penalties.

3. Take advantage of your medical subsidy.

Did you know that you are eligible for a retiree medical subsidy? The most common subsidies are 50% and 85%. When you retire, Edison will pay either 50% or 85% of your current medical insurance premium as a “continuation benefit” in retirement. Simply put, what you pay today is what you’ll pay in retirement. Of course, this is as long as you reach your required benefit milestone. (Unsure what your benefit is? Call EIX Benefits at 866-693-4947 to ask what benefit you have and at what age you’ll receive it.)

4. Weigh your Social Security options.

There is all kinds of information out there about what to do with your Social Security. Let us boil it all down: you don’t have to take it at 62! When we build a financial plan for a client, we calculate all options for optimizing Social Security. It’s ultimately your decision, but we suggest weighing your options before committing to collecting the 25-30% reduced benefit at age 62.

5. Use your 401(k) efficiently.

Your 401(k) can be an immensely powerful tool if you understand how to max it out and diversify your investments. In most cases, this is the point at which you’ll want to hire a professional team to help. One tool that can help you is the Charles Schwab Personal Choice Retirement Account (PCRA) option included in your 401(k) plan. The PCRA option lets you purchase investments on your own or hire a professional advisor to do it for you. This is made available through your Tier 3 option. 

These are just a few of the tips and resources we offer SCE employees. For a deeper dive into strategies you can take to help you maximize your money in retirement, download our full SCE Retirement Handbook here.

Want to chat further? Feel free to reach out. We’ve worked with hundreds of employees with your exact plan and are glad to point you in the right direction.

Cary Facer

Founder and Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Did the Fed make a mistake? – “A Few Minutes with Marcia”

Welcome back to A Few Minutes with Marcia. My name is Marcia Clark, senior research analyst at Warren Street Wealth Advisors.

Today we’re going to spend a few minutes considering the pros and cons of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee holding short-term interest rates steady at its June meeting. Most of my comments today are based on the FOMC announcement published on June 19, the press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell shortly thereafter, and remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard on June 21st.

Watch:

 

On June 19, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announced its decision to keep short-term interest rates unchanged at 2.25%-2.5%. Did they make a mistake?

To answer this question, let’s put ourselves in the shoes of the Fed and attempt to base our opinion on the available data. The Fed should reduce rates if they see the economy struggling. Is that what they see?

During a speech in Cincinnati on June 21st, Fed Governor Lael Brainard stated his assessment that the most likely path for the economy remains solid. He noted strength in consumer spending and consumer confidence, as well as unemployment at a 50-year low.

He did note a few areas of concern: cautious business investment due to policy uncertainty, slow growth overseas, and muted inflation.

  • Mr. Brainard said: “The downside risks, if they materialize, could weigh on economic activity. Basic principles of risk management in a low neutral rate environment with compressed conventional policy space would argue for softening the expected path of policy when risks shift to the downside.” But what does he mean by ‘compressed conventional policy space’?

The Fed has limited room to maneuver because interest rates are already low, and inflation and employment have not responded to changes in interest rates as predictably as they have in the past. 

  • On the plus side, this means the labor market can strengthen a lot without an acceleration in inflation
  • On the other hand, this low sensitivity along with already low interest rates gives the Fed less ability to buffer the economy in a downturn

 

If the Fed doesn’t get their interest rate call right, the economy could begin to spiral too far up or too far down.

Let’s take a deeper look at why low interest rates present a challenge for the Fed.

  • In the past, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 4 to 5 percentage points in order to combat past recessions
  • The chart on slide 6 shows the current Fed Funds rate sitting at less than half where it was before the last two recessions. 
  • Clearly there is less room to run if a recession hits

 

The chart also shows GDP beginning to stabilize at the end of 2016. With GDP on a more steady path, back in 2017 the Fed started raising short-term interest rates toward a more normal level in order to have some ‘dry powder’ for the next recession.

How did we get to this delicate balance point?

In December 2018, the Fed said more rate hikes were appropriate given the strengthening economy. The stock market reacted badly as at the same time trade talks with China were going nowhere and portions of the Treasury yield curve were inverted. Recession fears were on everyone’s mind.

In March 2019, Federal Reserve officials reassure markets that they will be “patient” with increasing short-term interest rates. To quote the FOMC statement after the March meeting: “the case for raising rates has weakened…” Notice that they didn’t say the case for cutting rates has strengthened.

And in June, the FOMC held interest rates steady and stated that the current level of interest rates is consistent with its mission to promote full employment and price stability. In its post-meeting statement, the committee said that the timing and size of future adjustments will be based on economic conditions relative to these two objectives. 

After the announcement, both stocks and bonds reacted positively to the decision, with the stock market indexes touching new highs before falling back a bit at the end of the week. 

Commentators speculated that the markets reacted well because a rate cut could be imminent. Equally likely, however, is that the markets reacted to the lack of a rate hike and prospects that a recession is not around the corner. 

During a press conference after the announcement, Fed chairman Jerome Powell responded to a question by saying that being independent of political pressure or market sentiment has served the country well and would do so in the future. He stated that the FOMC will react to data and trends that are sustainable rather than individual data points that can be volatile

But despite all the evidence, as we approach the end of June an astonishing 100% of futures investors are betting on a rate cut in July. These investors are wrong. 

Why am I so sure they won’t cut rates when commentators and the futures market clearly think differently?

You may have heard the expression ‘pushing on a string’. What this means is that applying force to something with no rigidity won’t have any impact – the string absorbs the force and the force doesn’t go any further. This is the current situation with monetary policy.

Imagine pushing a sofa across your carpeted living room versus pushing a mattress across the same room.

Once the feet of the sofa get out of the dent they made in the carpet, the sofa will move fairly easily. That’s because the sofa is rigid – when you apply force at one end, the sofa moves away from the force.

But a mattress is much more resistant to shifting. That’s because much of the force you apply is absorbed by the cushioning already in the mattress. The mattress will often bend before it will move. The force doesn’t go anywhere or accomplish anything.

The current U.S. economy is like the mattress in this example. The U.S. economy has plenty of available capital and interest rates are already low. Reducing the Fed Funds target from 2.375% to 2.00% is unlikely to accomplish much other than encouraging unwise borrowing and ultimately sparking inflation.

Yes, bad things can happen to our economy and the Fed needs to guard against a recession. But a recession overseas is much more likely than in the U.S., and no U.S. recession has ever been caused by a recession overseas. Dropping interest rates to ease market concerns or satisfy political sentiment is not the Fed’s mandate and would be counterproductive.

Barring some catastrophic political event or natural disaster, the U.S. economy is unlikely to falter between now and mid-July. 

Recognizing the Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and full employment are both being met at the current level of short-term interest rates, right now the downside risk of lowering rates outweighs the potential stimulus benefit. The FOMC should keep the Fed Funds rate steady when they meet in July.

This has been ‘A Few Minutes with Marcia’. I hope you are a bit clearer on how to assess the likelihood of Fed policy decisions going forward. As always, comments and questions are welcome!

Sources:

 

Marcia Clark, CFA, MBA
Senior Research Analyst
Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but is limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies or options presented. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. 

 

DISCLOSURES

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications.

Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200

Have You Heard of the “Mega Backdoor Roth IRA”?

Chances are if you are reading this, you’re already at least somewhat familiar with a Roth IRA. While the contribution limit will vary over time, in 2019 the limit is $6,000, plus an additional $1,000 catch up contribution for individuals over the age of 50. This limit is per individual, allowing married couples to contribute up to a maximum of $12,000-$14,000 depending on their age. Direct contributions to a Roth IRA also have an income phase-out limit that you’ll need to be aware of, which starts at $122,000 for single filers and $193,000 for joint filers.

What if I told you there was a way to contribute to a Roth IRA well beyond these limits, regardless of your income level? At some employers, you can.

The typical “backdoor Roth IRA” is a strategy for individuals to contribute to a Roth IRA that are over the income phase-out limitation for a direct contribution. This can be beneficial for many people, but still caps your contributions at only $6,000 or $7,000 per year. In some cases, your 401(k) may allow the ability to contribute on an “after-tax” basis, which opens up a world of possibilities for additional Roth contributions.

Roth contributions are contributed on an after-tax basis(meaning no current tax deduction), but earnings grow tax-free as long as you meet all the withdrawal eligibility rules set by the IRS. This means you must be at least age 59 ½ and meet the IRS’ “5 year rule” at the time of withdrawal.

An “after-tax” contribution works similar to a Roth contribution, but the taxation differs slightly. A pure after-tax contribution also provides no current tax deduction, but earnings associated with the money grow only tax-deferred and are later taxable at ordinary income rates upon distribution. As you can see, Roth dollars are generally more valuable than pure after-tax dollars.

The good news is, there is a fairly easy way to convert your pure after-tax dollars into Roth dollars so that all earnings grow tax-free. Once you hit the $19,000(plus $6,000 catch up for individuals over the age of 50) annual limit for your pre-tax and/or Roth contributions into your 401(k), you will want to begin contributing on an after-tax basis.

Pure after-tax contributions are not subject to the typical annual contribution limit of $19,000 or $25,000. Instead, they are capped at an overall 401(k) contribution limit of $56,000 or $62,000. This overall limit includes all of your pre-tax, Roth, employer matching, and after-tax contributions combined. In other words, if you make $100,000 per year and are under the age of 50, your pre-tax/Roth contributions are $19,000, your employer match is $6,000, and your maximum after-tax contributions are $31,000. ($56,000 – 19,000 – 6,000 match = $31,000 of remaining after-tax contribution ability). This additional $31,000 could then be rolled into a Roth IRA, allowing for the “mega backdoor Roth” contribution. This means you can potentially get up to $37,000 per year into a Roth IRA!

There is one caveat to this however. When you convert your after-tax contributions to a Roth IRA, any earnings that are associated with the after-tax contributions that enter the Roth IRA will be taxable. If you contributed $10,000 after-tax and that money has since grown to $12,000, you will pay tax on the $2,000 should you put the full $12,000 into the Roth IRA. This can be circumvented by removing only the pure after-tax contributions(basis) and leaving account earnings in the 401(k) account to grow tax-deferred and be withdrawn at a later date. For this reason, the sooner you can get the money from the after-tax 401(k) to the Roth IRA, the sooner your money will be growing for you tax-free. Once the money is in the Roth IRA, you are open to the entire world of investing beyond what is offered in the 401(k) plan. You have the ability to have the money invested in mutual funds, ETFs, stocks, bonds, and with the oversight of professional management should you choose.

This is a great savings strategy for individuals who are looking to increase the amount of their retirement savings and want to do so in a tax-advantaged way. For individuals who have the excess cash flow and budgetary means of doing so, the “mega backdoor Roth” is a no brainer. While this strategy can be complex, once initially set up the ongoing maintenance is minimal. Warren Street Wealth Advisors is here to assist and facilitate after-tax contributions, conversions to Roth accounts, and the underlying investment management. For individuals looking to take advantage of this huge tax savings opportunity, be sure to contact us for help getting this strategy implemented for your situation. Please bear in mind this strategy is only applicable to individuals who are already maximizing their current pre-tax or Roth contributions in the 401(k).

If you have any questions on the strategy or investments and tax planning in general, be sure to reach out and contact us as we are happy to help. As with nearly everything financial planning, specific rules and details will need to be implemented on a case by case basis, so be sure to contact us with the specifics of your case.

Justin D. Rucci, CFP®

Wealth Advisor

Warren Street Wealth Advisors

 

Justin D. Rucci, CFP® is an Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. Investing involves the risk of loss of principal. Justin D. Rucci, CFP® is not a CPA or accountant and the information contained herein is considered for general educational purposes. Please seek a qualified tax opinion or discuss with your financial advisor as nothing in this publication is considered personal actionable advice.