Part 2: Assessing War and the State of the Global Economy

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Don’t Miss the Big Picture 

With news outlets centered on Eastern Europe, it is easy to miss the bigger economic picture both globally and domestically. For a broader assessment, it helps to understand how Russia fits into the global economy. Prior to the invasion, the Kremlin represented just 3.11% of global GDP.  

To further illustrate, Exhibit A and Exhibit B portray the size of Russia’s economy, population, and percent makeup of the global stock market compared to other countries. Looking at Exhibit A, Russia has the largest population of this subset, yet its economy (the size of the bubble) is smaller than Texas. Thus, the war’s direct effect on global growth was already limited even before indices deemed Russia as “uninvestable” or before western parties imposed sanctions.  

Exhibit A – Russia’s Economy is Smaller Than Texas 
 Exhibit B – Russia is Miniscule compared to the US, China, and India  

Zooming out in Exhibit B, you can assess just how small Russia is relative to the United States and its Asian neighbors China and India.  

The State of the West 

Before discussing other nations, let’s cover our home turf. Within the United States, we have successfully fended off the Omicron wave. COVID-19 data is trending in the right direction, pandemic related pressures (i.e., labor market, car prices) are slowly easing (Exhibit C), and consumer balance sheets are rock-solid (Exhibit D).  

Exhibit C: The Labor Market is Loosening, and Inventories are Building 
Exhibit D.1: Debt as a % of Consumer Incomes

Exhibit D.2: Consumers Have a Record $2.4T in “Excess Savings”

Although the threats of additional COVID-19 variants and prolonged inflation linger, our economy is expected to produce above-trend economic growth (see Exhibit E). In fact, economists remain optimistic about the US economy, with the median 2022 real gross domestic product forecast only revised 0.10% downwards after the invasion of Ukraine.  

Other major economies (particularly in Europe) are more at risk for an economic slowdown attributed to higher energy prices (i.e., over $120/barrel for Brent Crude driven), or what we call “pain –at –the– pump.”  

Although Europe derives 40%+ of its natural gas from Russia and Ukraine, we expect that new measures targeting energy independence and militaristic efforts will have positive long-standing effects on European growth despite interim road bumps. For some near-term perspective, European nations are still expected to grow GDP above their long-term forecasts in 2022 (see Exhibit E).

Exhibit E: How Much Are Our Economies Expected to Grow in 2022?

Commodity Chaos – Not to be Overlooked 

Although the war’s direct effect on global growth is likely to be meager, indirect pressures on commodity prices are a larger concern, as they may diminish the purchasing power of disposable incomes. Russia is the world’s second largest oil producer behind the US, and accounts for 12% of global production. Also, Russia and Ukraine make –up 25% of global wheat exports, 33% of global corn trade, and 80% of sunflower oil production.  

What happens if sanctions are imposed, or if nations surrender agricultural practices to fight on the battlefield? The price of electricity in your factories will rise. Middle eastern nations reliant on wheat imports (i.e., Egypt and Lebanon) must ration appropriately. Chinese-grown hogs – which feed on corn – are more expensive to raise. Lastly, the price of that bag of Ruffles (made from sunflower oil) is expected to increase. 

Exhibit F: Commodity Prices Are Rising

Where Do We Go from Here? 

Could this lead to inflation? Yes – we have already seen commodity prices surge exponentially. Does this mean that the US economy will fall to its knees? The probability of that is very low.  

After all, two-thirds of our nation’s economy is consumption-driven, and with consumers looking healthy and a central bank easing the economy into a higher rate environment, it is hard to envision a full-scale economic disaster unfolding. Even if we run into a recession, perhaps it will be much smaller than our recent lived experiences of the Great Recession and the Great Lockdown (2020 COVID-19 Pandemic).  

Our European neighbors will be more vulnerable over the next three months, especially with an energy embargo on Russia still on the table. However, between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz mobilizing its military (for the first time in 20 years), renewed sentiment on energy independence, and a newfound unity amongst the entire West, the European economy is exuberating a different luster and willingness to grow than it did in previous years. Should this war abate, we believe Europe could resume course towards full recovery and investors with allocations will be rewarded. 

A Stronger West, Once the War is Put to Rest 

Ultimately, our sentiment from part 1 of this series that “We Will Prevail” has not changed. We have endured many instances of short-term pain and come out victorious. This time is no different. I am confident that our economies – particularly the West — will emerge stronger and more united after this war is put to rest.  

Stay tuned in part 3 where we discuss asset class performance and portfolio impact! 

Phillip Law, Portfolio Analyst

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Part 1: We Will Prevail

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“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

– Vladimir Lenin

The words of Lenin, who led the Russian Revolution in 1917, are ringing true in his own country over 100 years later. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine took the world, and financial markets, by storm. For investors, initial instincts may prompt feelings of worry, and rightfully so.

After all, homes are collapsing, buildings are burning, and civilians are being displaced in what publications are calling the biggest war in Europe since 1945. First and foremost, we empathize with the human concerns and humanitarian disaster resulting from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We believe that a broad understanding of the market’s relationship with geopolitical crises, the state of the global economy, and the war’s impact on broad asset classes will help investors navigate this turbulent time.

This series will aim to address the concerns that arise for investors and global markets during such times.

Weathering the Storm

In an era where G20 nations are accustomed to diplomacy, the impact of war on markets may seem foreign. However, we can turn to history to help distinguish relationships between capital returns and warfare. Below is a chart showing the growth of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 since 1950, overlayed with a myriad of events.

Exhibit A1

Looking back, the S&P 500 grappled with numerous instances of geopolitical turmoil, nationwide systemic meltdowns, and a global pandemic. Despite these vulnerabilities, notice the trend and direction of that initial $10k: it consistently recovers and grows over time Furthermore, Exhibit B features returns 12, 24, and 36 months after the market bottomed in each war.

Exhibit B 

These charts convey two things:

  1.  Despite volatile periods, investors have generally been rewarded for putting their capital at risk.
  2.  Human beings are incredibly resilient. We’ve lived through arduous events, gritted our teeth, and made it to the other side.

Some people are comparing this conflict to World War II, but we disagree given that the battle is regionally contained and the US is unlikely to become directly involved. The conflict can, and likely will, get worse. But the probability of another world war is low.  

The outcome of Russia’s invasion is difficult to predict. Whether Putin succeeds in establishing a puppet government in Kyiv or a ceasefire is negotiated, we have faith that humankind will persevere and that capital will continue to seek the most efficient allocators, leading to long-term positive returns. In other words, we will prevail.

Phillip Law, Portfolio Analyst

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Footnotes & Sources:

  1. Chart is not log-scaled and thus understates market return volatility.

5 Early Retirement Health insurance Options Before Medicare

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An important aspect of early retirement is planning for medical insurance coverage.  Here is a list of options for securing coverage if you plan to retire before age 65. 

  1. COBRA: Check with your Benefits Department to see if COBRA coverage is available. These benefits typically need to be activated within 60 days from your loss of coverage date.  COBRA benefits allow individuals who would otherwise lose coverage to maintain it for a period of time, typically at a higher, unsubsidized cost.  COBRA may be an option, but it may not be the least expensive option.  
  1. Exchange Plans: The public Exchange plans are part of the Affordable Care Act.  Attempts to repeal this have fallen flat and it is likely to stick around even if the administration changes, especially in California.  
  1. Private Marketplace:  You can secure coverage through private placement. You will face little risk of changes in the law, but you will not receive any tax credits or subsidies.
  1. Retiree Medical Benefits: Check with your Benefits Department to see if your employer offers medical benefits in retirement.  You may be eligible for employer-provided subsidies based on years of service, although this is becoming rare.  
  1. Part-Time Work: Certain large employers are now offering medical benefits to part-time, hourly employees. (Starbucks is an example.)  

You can sign up for Medicare 3 months before the month you turn 65. We highly recommend you consult a Medicare specialist before signing up. A consultant will advise on Medicare Part A, Part B, Part C, and Part D, plus dental and vision coverage depending on your situation.  Please reach out to us if you would like a referral.  

If you plan on an early retirement and you would like to further discuss your options for medical insurance coverage, reach out to the Warren Street team.

Emily Balmages, CFP®, CRTP

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Healing What Hurts: The Essential Role of a Financial Therapist

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As financial advisors, we help people attain financial independence. Usually our personalized planning conversations are enough to help them establish a healthy, happy relationship with their money. But sometimes we uncover bigger pain points we need to address before we can move forward.

There is no shame in that! Almost all of us have picked up at least some emotional baggage related to money. When standard financial advice isn’t enough, we may recommend engaging a financial therapist to assist. In the right circumstances, they can be an invaluable addition to your wealth management team.

When Can a Financial Therapist Help?

When is financial therapy warranted? As financial advisor Rick Kahler said in a 2019 article, “A person can benefit from financial therapy when their behaviors are not in line with their values.” Put another way, if it feels as if no amount of financial planning will resolve a greater discontent, this can be a sign that deeper forces are at work, such as one or more of the following:

  • You often spend to excess or are frugal beyond the point of reason, but you’re still unhappy, feeling as if there is an emotional hole you can never quite fill.
  • You tell yourself and others half-truths or outright lies about your money management. For example, your spouse doesn’t know about that extra account you’ve stashed at another bank, or you hide just how deep in debt you’ve become. You convince yourself your secrets won’t hurt anyone and that it will all just work itself out somehow.
  • Whether as a recipient or a provider, you’re trapped in a financial exchange with little joy in the giving or gratitude in the receiving. You long to get out from under the relationship but you feel helpless to change it.
  •  You have important financial issues to discuss with your aging parents, with your adult children, or as a couple. But you’re so used to not talking about money, you don’t know how to break the silence.
  • Your financial interests are in disarray, with important changes you’d like to make. But even with an advisor to assist, you can’t bring yourself to take action. You remain mired in indecision.
  •  You yearn to have a sensible strategy guiding your financial journey, but you find yourself continually overhauling your investments, your advisors, and your overall approach. Nothing ever seems right for very long.
  •  You reach a point where you feel there is no point. You stop even opening incoming bills. You shut out those offering to assist. Rather than bringing you any happiness, your money has become a source of misery and shame.

How Does a Financial Therapist Help?

Following are a few of the types of issues a financial therapist can help you reconcile: 

  • As a child: Was money a taboo subject when you were growing up? Even once you’re an adult, these early influences can weigh on your financial autonomy, and make it difficult to engage with your aging parents about their own challenges.
  • As a parent: You may have justifiably developed a strong sense of financial duty to your children. This can leave you struggling to establish practical boundaries once your beloved babies become adults.
  • As a couple: You and your spouse may each come into your relationship with very different saving, spending, investing, and borrowing behaviors. If entrenched differences go unaddressed, they can wreak havoc on an otherwise loving relationship.
  • As an individual: You may feel anxious and ill-prepared to take care of your own or your family’s financial logistics. Or, on the flip side, you might believe you—and only you—must manage your entire household wealth. Either extreme can detract from reaching a healthy balance between your emotional confidence and your financial well-being.

Working With a Financial Therapist

Financial management can be difficult for anyone, and struggling at times does not necessarily mean you have a chronic issue in your relationship with money. But if your financial behaviors feel like they are crippling your financial future or causing you consistent distress, it may be time to bring in a financial therapist to help you move past the pain.

Some individuals or families also find it meaningful to consult with a financial therapist as an “ounce of prevention”.. This approach to financial therapy can be particularly empowering for major life transitions such as changing family structure, during a business succession, as you prepare for retirement, or when a wealth transfer occurs.  

How do you get started? As one financial therapist said: “For your money, you want a fiduciary. … For your emotional health, you want a licensed psychologist or therapist who knows how to treat the diagnoses you have and respects confidentiality.” Ideal matches also may depend on a therapist’s areas of expertise (such as family conflict, childhood trauma, or grief and anger management), and/or occupational niches (such as business owners, academics, or attorneys).

Here at Warren Street, we can make appropriate introductions for our clients. You can also use the Financial Therapy Association’s “Find a Financial Therapist” to search for qualified professionals in your region. However, note that financial therapy is a relatively new profession. With its roots dating back to 2009, the Financial Therapy Association was the first group to offer financial therapist certification in 2019. As such, it’s worth ensuring your would-be therapist possesses a solid tripod of professional credentials, academic qualifications, and seasoned experience before you entrust yourself to their care.

As financial professionals, we pride ourselves on helping individuals and families maximize their financial and emotional independence through a well-managed relationship with their wealth. That said, we don’t pretend we can be all things to everyone. When it’s time to focus on the nexus between mental health and household wealth, a qualified financial therapist can be an integral part of your Warren Street team. Ask us today how we can help.

Kirsten C. Cadden, CFP®

Associate Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Charitable Giving

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Maximize Your Giving and Minimize Your Taxes

The end of the year is quickly approaching, which may prompt a review of any final tax planning strategies to employ before December 31. The fall and winter holiday season also turns our minds to gratitude and giving. Perhaps surprisingly, these year-end considerations are not mutually exclusive.

To promote charitable giving, the IRS offers tax deductions for certain charitable donations. The most straightforward tax benefit is an itemized deduction of the amount of any cash donations to a qualifying charitable organization, up to 60% of the taxpayer’s Adjusted Gross Income for the year (with a five-year carryover allowed). If you itemize deductions, this is an easy deduction to claim and one you are probably already aware of.

But tax-aware charitable giving strategies don’t end there. For example, a special above-the-line deduction (for non-itemizers) was created just for 2020-21 for any taxpayer to deduct cash donations up to $300 for single filers or $600 for married filing jointly.

Let’s look at three additional options to maximize your giving while minimizing your taxes.

1. Qualified Charitable Distributions 

A qualified charitable distribution (QCD) is a direct transfer from your IRA (traditional, rollover, inherited, SEP, or SIMPLE) to a qualified charity. Several attractive benefits come with a QCD:

  • First, a QCD counts toward your annual required minimum distribution (RMD).
  • Second, the amount of a QCD is excluded from your taxable income. So, rather than taking a withdrawal from your IRA, having taxes withheld, and then writing a check to your favorite charity, consider making a direct transfer from your IRA to the charity. You can send the full amount to charity without having taxes withheld on the distribution.
  • Third, the tax-exemption of a QCD doesn’t require that you itemize your deductions. Normally, to get a tax deduction for charitable giving, you need to itemize your tax deductions rather than use the standard deduction. But a QCD is tax-exempt whether or not you itemize – allowing you to take the higher deduction (whether that is the standard or itemized) and get a tax benefit for your charitable contributions either way.

To be eligible for a QCD, you must be 70 ½ or older and SEP or SIMPLE IRAs must be inactive. QCDs are limited to $100,000 per year per person and may be further limited if you are still contributing to the IRA. To count toward the current year’s RMD, the funds must be transferred from the IRA by the RMD deadline (usually December 31). 

2. Donor-Advised Funds
A Donor-Advised Fund (DAF) is a fund you establish to set aside cash and other assets for charitable giving. You receive a tax deduction for the amount given to the fund in the year contributed, and the assets are available for you to donate to specific charitable organizations at any time. 

Donations of appreciated assets, such as stock or real estate, can be given to the DAF without paying capital gains taxes. Any further growth of assets in the DAF is not taxable to you since it is already irrevocably reserved for charitable gifts.

A DAF can be used in a “batching” strategy, where the tax-deductible contribution to the fund happens in one year and then donations to your chosen charities subsequently happen on whatever timeline you wish. You can fund a batch of charitable gifts in one single tax-deductible contribution. This is a great tax-mitigating tool for a particularly high-income year and a useful ongoing strategy to maximize the tax benefits of your charitable giving. 

3. Charitable Remainder Trusts

Charitable Remainder Trusts allow you to make partially tax-deductible contributions to the trust while achieving a two-fold goal: providing an income stream to yourself or another beneficiary and giving to a charitable organization.

There are two types of Charitable Remainder Trusts: a Charitable Remainder Annuity Trust (CRAT) and a Charitable Remainder Unitrust (CRUT).

  • A CRAT distributes a fixed amount to the chosen beneficiary (yourself or someone else) each year. At the end of the trust term (no more than 20 years), the remainder of the trust goes to your chosen charitable organization(s). Additional contributions cannot be made once the CRAT is established.
  • A CRUT distributes a fixed percentage of the trust assets to the beneficiary, with the remainder going to your chosen charitable organization(s). Additional contributions can be made over the life of a CRUT.

The tax deduction of contributions to a Charitable Remainder Trust is based on the type of trust, the term of the trust, the projected income payments, and the IRS interest rate assumptions. You can combine a Charitable Remainder Trust with a Donor-Advised Fund to offer more flexibility. 

CARES Act Enhancements

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) added some additional tax incentives for charitable giving in tax years 2020 and 2021. The maximum allowed deduction for cash contributions increased to 100% of AGI, with a five-year carryover allowed. The deduction allowed for corporations increased to 25% of taxable income. As mentioned previously, a special above-the-line deduction (for non-itemizers) was also created for any taxpayer to deduct cash donations up to $300 for single filers or $600 for married filing jointly.

Family, corporate, and private non-operating foundations are excluded from these enhanced benefits, along with supporting organizations under Section 509(a)(3) and donor-advised funds. These enhancements only apply to cash contributions. Contributions of appreciated assets (like stock or real estate) are subject to the same prior limit of 30% of AGI.

Conclusion

Immediate action items we recommend:

  • If you gave to charity in 2021, make sure you take the special above-the-line deduction (up to $300 for single filers and $600 for married filing jointly).
  • If you are over age 70 ½ and donating to charity, talk with your advisor about making Qualified Charitable Deductions from your IRA.
  • If you had unusually high income this year and/or if you are consistently giving large amounts to charity, talk with your advisor about setting up a Donor-Advised Fund.

Charitable giving is a fulfilling practice and an important piece of many financial plans. Current tax law incentivizes charitable gifts, and thus, skilled tax planning can help you maximize what you can give. Talk to your advisor or tax professional to see if any of these charitable giving strategies could help you achieve your financial goals.

Kirsten C. Cadden, CFP®

Associate Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Estate Planning: A Checklist of Essentials

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As school starts again and we are getting back to our routines, this may also be a good time to review the following list of estate planning essentials. This is a good checklist to scroll through at least once a year and upon any significant life changes. We will be there to remind you as your life events unfold.


▢ Check Your Beneficiaries: We cannot say this one often enough. Check the beneficiaries on your retirement accounts and your life insurance policies at least once a year and remember to update your beneficiaries upon births, deaths, marriages, and divorces. It is important to have both Primary and Contingent beneficiaries listed. If your retirement account is managed by Warren Street, we will review your beneficiaries during your annual review meeting.

▢ Set Up TOD/POD On Brokerage And Bank Accounts: If you do not have a Trust established yet, be sure to set up a TOD (Transfer On Death) or POD (Payable on Death) feature on all brokerage and/or bank accounts. This feature will add beneficiaries to your accounts, and will keep the accounts out of probate.

▢ Don’t Name Minors As Account Beneficiaries or Life Insurance Beneficiaries: If you do, your estate will need an appointed guardian and will potentially need to provide annual accountings to the probate court. If you want the assets to ultimately flow to a minor, the best option is to name a Trust as the beneficiary of beneficiary-driven accounts.

▢ Review Your Trust, Will, Advanced Health Care Directive, Durable Power of Attorney: If you have not yet established the four documents listed above, please contact Warren Street and we will connect you with an estate attorney. If you have gone through the process of setting up your Estate Plan, you should review these documents on a regular basis. If you would like Warren Street to review these documents with you, please contact us.

▢ Transfer Your House To Your Trust: Once your Trust is established, you will be instructed by your estate attorney to transfer your primary residence to your Trust. If you do not have a Trust yet, and you live in CA, you can add a Transfer-On-Death Deed to your property to name beneficiaries and to keep the property out of the probate process.

▢ Simplify Your Balance Sheet: We are often in the position of helping clients when a family member has passed away. When individuals have several different retirement accounts and several different bank accounts, it can create unnecessary complexity for their beneficiaries. It is often a good idea to consolidate accounts to the extent possible at a minimal number of institutions — this will not only make your life easier, it will also make life easier for your beneficiaries when you pass away.

▢ Guardianship Designations: If you have minor children, it is important to name your chosen Guardians should something happen to you. This will normally be taken care of with your estate attorney during the estate planning process, and these Guardians will be named in your Will. Review these designations on a regular basis.

▢ Review Your Life Insurance Coverage — Is It Enough?: At Warren Street, we typically recommend Term Life Insurance policies with level premiums (policies for a set number of years with a set premium) for clients who have dependents. If you would like us to review your current coverage, please contact us.

▢ Business Owners Should Consider a Buy-Sell Agreement: A Buy-Sell Agreement provides a mechanism for business succession if an Owner should retire or pass away. It is best to establish these agreements long before any transition process. We recommend you work with an experienced attorney to establish your agreement and we recommend that every co-owned business go through this process.

This is just a starting point, and there are certainly more complex issues to address if your estate might be facing an estate tax bill when you pass away. If you have any questions about the specifics of your estate plan, please feel free to reach out to us — it is what we are here for!

Emily Balmages, CFP®, CRTP

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

March Market Madness

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During this time last year, the NCAA canceled March Madness. With college basketball off the table, we were given a different type of madness: Market Madness. The S&P 500 drew down a total of 34% from peak to trough as COVID-19 wreaked havoc across global markets. This week marked the one year anniversary of that drawdown’s market bottom.

In September 2020, we wrote about the astounding fiscal and monetary policy action delivered by both the Federal Reserve and congressional lawmakers in response to the coronavirus. Although we complimented both the central bank and congress, the 2020 Most Valuable Player award quite honestly belongs to Jerome Powell and the Fed.

Today, after fending off last March’s Market Madness, the ball is no longer in the Fed’s court. Instead, The Fed is embodying a more reactive approach, awaiting signs of inflation to cross their 2% target before considering rate hikes or tools such as yield-curve control. Now, it’s our congressional leaders’ turn to play offense using fiscal policy. Their most recent time-out play is the $1.9 trillion stimulus package with embedded $1,400 stimulus payments expected to boost inflation.

Is Inflation Bad?

Let’s take a step back and consider why the Fed is setting a target with inflation. It’s important to distinguish that inflation isn’t as daunting as what’s ingrained in our history books. Sure, the inflationary tales of Zimbabwe and the Weimar Republic might seem scary, but the truth is such situations are rare and due to mismanaged policy in less-developed nations. Typically, mild inflation is a sign of rising consumption and increased demand. Today, this type of inflation can be recognized as reflation1; and in our case, reflation would signify that a return to normalcy is en route. 

Market expectations for inflation are no laughing matter. A re-opening is expected to usher in increased spending in the form of pent-up demand. Input prices such as lumber and copper are already soaring. The five year breakeven treasury rate, which measures investor expectations for inflation, rose to its highest over point ever since 2014. Bonds, whose kryptonite is inflation, witnessed a sell-off that trickled into tech stocks.

But are markets correct to expect this much inflation? Or are markets overshooting their expectations by falling for this inflation pump fake? Perhaps our stay-at-home habits will prevail in the long-run and spending will not stay elevated, resulting in lower inflationary pressures. If so, we could see a rebound in bond prices and tech names. Nevertheless, this is the hotly debated topic among investors at the moment. 

Run The Play

This brings us back to the analogy with our administration’s most recent time-out-play. The $1.9 trillion relief bill is bringing hope to the workers, businesses, institutions, and communities that have struggled throughout this pandemic. As you can see in the chart below, the $1,400 stimulus payments represent a large percent of the package totalling $422 billion. It makes sense for investors to expect increased inflation as consumers now have higher disposable incomes and propensity to consume – but there is a catch.

Source: Committee For a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB)

What will happen to actual inflation if these stimulus payments don’t make it back into the economy, but instead find their way into the stock market? A survey by Deutsche Bank revealed that individuals between the ages of 25 to 34 intend on placing 50% of the received payment into the stock market. Ultimately, the survey found that younger and high income earners eyed the stock market as the targeted destination for this income.

Source: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation, dgDIG, RealVisionFinance
Data presented on 3/08/2021

The Deutsche Bank survey, like any other, is going to be scrutinized for sampling error, but we don’t see something like the above being too far-fetched. The recent retail frenzy with “meme stocks2” like GameStop, Blackberry, and AMC has given rise to retail investing. Popular communities like r/WallStreetBets on Reddit have become a breeding ground for investors to commingle. Even more likely are your neighbors, who watched people get rich on the market’s 2020 rally, itching to pummel some of their stimulus money into the S&P 500.

These $1,400 payments are intended to increase demand for goods and prompt businesses to hire more workers, eventually raising wages. If these payments seek risk-assets instead, we could see a halt in the reflation narrative and a prolonged unemployment recovery.

Another risk to consider is the risk of financial stability. We’re seeing speculative behavior, especially from retail investors piling into stocks with less regard for the underlying fundamentals. At the end of the day, it’s quite possible to see a lack of wage growth in the economy while management teams of inefficient and highly-indebted companies get rewarded for little to no profitability.

The Bottom Line

We aren’t here to debate whether or not you should save or spend the money, let’s leave that to Reddit and Twitter. However, should a substantial portion of stimulus payments see capital markets as a more attractive destination than the underlying economy, the risks to reflation and financial stability must not be overlooked.     

We’ll see whether or not the $1.9 trillion time-out play will win the economic recovery game and prevent further Market Madness… if not, let’s hope it at least takes us into overtime.

Footnotes:

  1. Reflation represents increased price levels as a result of monetary or fiscal policy as a means to combat deflation.  
  2. “Meme stocks” are stocks that have gained traction from retail audiences such as Reddit or investment communities. GameStop and AMC are just a few of the many names with this retail comradery, earning these stocks the nickname “meme stocks” and causing a surge in prices throughout early 2021.

Sources: 

Committee For a Responsible Congressional Budget 

Deustche Bank Survey

YCharts

Phillip Law, Portfolio Analyst

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

Recovery Rebate Stimulus Payment

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The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 is now a done deal. Among the items of greatest interest to most Americans is a third round of stimulus checks—or IRS “recovery rebates”—of up to $1,400 for every “eligible individual.”

That is the quick take but what is the fine print?

How Much Will You Receive?

Each eligible individual in your household should receive $1,400. Eligible individuals include:[1]

  1. You, as an individual taxpayer
  2. Your spouse (if you are filing a joint tax return)
  3. Any dependents you are claiming on your tax return, regardless of their age

For example: A married couple filing jointly and claiming three dependents on their tax return would be eligible for $1,400 x 5 = $7,000. This is the case even if the dependent is, say, an adult child in college, or a parent in assisted living.

The catch? Whether you receive a full, a partial, or no rebate depends on your Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) on your tax return:

If you are …You receive a full rebate if your AGI is … You receive a partial rebate if your AGI is …You won’t receive a rebate if your AGI is …
Single, or married filing separateUnder $75,000$75,000–$80,000Over $80,000
Head of householdUnder $112,500$112,500–$120,000Over $120,000
Married, filing jointly Under $150,000$150,000–$160,000Over $160,000

Which AGI are we talking about? Technically, the stimulus payment is a 2021 Recovery Rebate, but like our Great American Pastime (baseball), you actually get up to three “at bats,” or years in which to qualify for a full or partial rebate.

At Bat #1: Your 2019 or 2020 Tax Return, Already Filed

Initially, the IRS will look at the AGI reported on the most recent tax return you’ve already filed, whether that’s your 2019 or 2020 return. If your AGI falls within the “full rebate” parameters above, you can expect to receive your full 2021 Recovery Rebate. Where will the money go? If the IRS has a checking account on file for you, they should be able to issue a direct deposit into that account. Otherwise, they should mail you a check or debit card to your address on file.

Note: Even if you end up reporting higher income in subsequent years, you will get to keep the full amount of any payment you receive from At Bat #1. The IRS will not come after you, asking for you to pay it back.

At Bat #2: Your 2020 Tax Return, To Be Filed What if you’ve not yet filed your 2020 tax return, but your 2019 income was too high to qualify you for a full rebate? Good news: You get another chance once you file your 2020 return. At that time, the IRS will perform an “additional payment determination.” If your 2020 return qualifies you for a higher rebate than your 2019 return did, the IRS will essentially send you the difference, again via direct deposit or mail. You could receive:

  • A full or partial payment: If you received nothing based on your 2019 return, but you now qualify for one or the other based on your 2020 income.
  • A second partial payment: If you already received a partial payment, but you now qualify for more based on your 2020 income.
  • Nothing: If your AGI is still too high to qualify.

Note: To qualify for an additional payment determination, be sure to file your 2020 tax return on a timely basis, even if the filing deadline ends up being extended beyond April 15, 2021. We can provide additional information about specific deadlines as needed.

At Bat #3: Your 2021 Tax Return

What if neither your 2019 tax return nor your 2020 return qualify you for a full rebate? You still have one more chance. If your 2021 income is low enough to qualify, you will be able to file for a credit on your 2021 tax return for any amounts not already received. 

Additional Ideas: What’s a Taxpayer To Do?

You may have noticed, the range for receiving a partial payment is very narrow, which means fewer taxpayers will fall into it. Most of us will either qualify for a full rebate … or none at all.

If you do fall into the partial-rebate range, the amount you’ll receive will be calculated based on a straight percentage.

For example: A couple filing jointly with no dependents reports an AGI of $155,000, smack in the middle of the $150,000-$160,000 range. This means half of their rebate will be phased out. Instead of receiving $1,400 x 2 = $2,800, they’ll receive half of that, or $1,400.

Also, the tight, cliff-like gap between receiving a full payment versus nothing at all means a little tax planning could go a long way between now and year-end, especially if your annual income is close to qualifying you for a recovery rebate.  If this applies to you, please reach out to us soon to explore any 2020 or 2021 tax-planning opportunities that may help. Even if your income falls well within the “yes” or “no” recovery rebate ranges, please let us know if we can address any additional questions or comments. It is what we are here for!

[1] Nonresident alien individuals, and estates or trusts are explicitly excluded.

Reference Materials:

Emily Balmages, CFP®, CRTP

Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.

DIY Credit Repair

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Credit scores sometimes feel like the GPAs of high school. It’s just a number but also has a lot of power of what you can be approved for (like GPAs determine what colleges you can get into). If you’ve struggled with credit, it may be tempting to call the 800 number you hear on the radio promising you an overnight solution to repair your credit. As tempting as it is, do not do it! Most of these are just scams that will get you to spend money you don’t need to.

You can work on repairing your credit yourself and you should. 

Step #1 – Monitor your credit

The first step is seeing where you are at. You can get copies of your full credit reports from all the credit bureaus (Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax) by going to annualcreditreport.com or calling 877-322-8228. You are able to get your reports for free once a year via Annual Credit Report. 

You can also sign up for a reputable credit monitoring service. These services help you by sending alerts anytime there is suspicious activity on your credit and also giving you the ability to check in often. You can find a list of some options here.

Step #2 – Dispute any errors

Once you have your reports, you should review them for accuracy. Confirm that your name, address, social security number, and all other personal information is correct. Then review all the accounts reported including balances. If you see any errors, you can tell the credit bureaus in writing what information you think is incorrect. Make sure to include copies of supporting documents (bank statements, credit card statements, etc). You can find a sample letter for disputing errors on your credit report from the Federal Trade Commission here.

According to the Federal Trade Commission, credit reporting companies must investigate the items you question within 30 days unless they consider your dispute frivolous. Once the investigation is complete, the credit reporting company must also give you the results in writing and give you another free copy of the report. 

Step #3 – Control the things you can control

While sometimes there can be errors on your credit report that negatively affect you, a lot of the time your scores can be in your control. If you have a poor credit score because of things like missing payments, maxing out accounts, or applying for too much credit in a short period of time, work on improving these behaviors: 

  • Always try to pay your bills on time even if it’s just the minimum payments. 
  • Work on paying off your debt, especially high interest credit card debt.
  • Avoid applying for new credit. If you are trying to get a handle on your credit, one of the best things you can do is break the cycle of continuing to apply for new credit. 

For more information, or if you have any questions, please reach out to your trusted wealth advisor at Warren Street Wealth Advisors.

Veronica Torres

Director of Operations, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

Investment Advisor Representative, Warren Street Wealth Advisors, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisor

The information presented here represents opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional. Nothing in this document is a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. Warren Street Wealth Advisors may own securities referenced in this document. Due to the static nature of content, securities held may change over time and current trades may be contrary to outdated publications. Form ADV available upon request 714-876-6200.