D6T4J0 USA, California, El Segundo, Portion of Chevron's El Segundo refineries, after sunset

12 Keys to Retiring from the Oil & Gas Industry with Confidence

12 Keys To Retiring From the Oil & Gas Industry with Confidence

Retirement is coming soon, and you know you should be excited. But some of us have so many questions and concerns about retirement that we’re more nervous than anything else.

 

We understand.

At Warren Street Wealth Advisors, we’ve helped those inside the oil & gas industry navigate this crucial but confusing time. In the process, we’ve learned local companies’ retirement programs and employee benefits inside and out. So we put together a list of our 12 keys to retiring from the oil & gas industry with confidence.


 

1. Have A Plan

Nothing else in this post matters if you don’t have a personalized financial plan. We believe this so strongly that building a personalized financial plan is the first thing we do with every one of our clients.

A personalized financial plan is the roadmap to your comfortable, stress-free retirement. You can know your benefits inside-out and be clever about taxes and investments. But if you don’t have a map for navigating your retirement, you’ll never feel confident along the way.

 

2. Seriously, Have A Plan

I wrote that twice because I wanted to be certain you see how important this is.

Having a plan is essential for any major life decision, and navigating your retirement with wisdom and confidence is certainly part of a major life decision!

OK, let’s move on…

 

3. Make Sure Your Retirement Timing is Correct

When you go to retire, make sure you are doing so at an advantageous time. Eligibility for annual bonuses, vacation days, or vacation payouts could all be dependent on when you retire from the company.

For some local companies, retiring in April will make you eligible for your next year’s bonus. If you do not work the first quarter, you will be ineligible for the bonus.

So at this company, for example, if you retire in May of 2016, then you would be qualified for 5 months (or 5/12ths) of the 2017 bonus. Remember, it all adds up, and this can be helpful as you begin to transition into retirement.

 

4. Utilize Your Vacation Time

If you retire at a time where you are eligible for vacation days or can get paid out on the vacation days, use them! You earned the time!

For some companies, each year on January 1st, your vacation time resets and for every month of work, you are eligible for 1/12th of your vacation time (whatever that may be depending on how long you’ve been with the company).

If you don’t want to use your vacation time, then some companies will pay you for the vacation days you do not use. If you had 2 weeks of vacation, they you would get 2 weeks worth of pay.

 

5. Retire After 55 But Before 59½ Without Paying Penalties

Here’s a scenario we see all the time: you’re 57. You want to retire. You don’t want to wait until you’re 59½ to do it. But you know that there’s a 10% federal tax penalty and a 2.5% California state tax penalty if you take money out of your 401(k) before then. So are you stuck?

Nope.

Leave some money in the 401(k) to avoid penalties. Some oil & gas companies have provisions in their plans that allow flexibility when it comes to taking withdrawals. Whether this be a one time withdrawal or setting up a monthly distribution, there may be a way to get around those pesky penalties.

There are a lot of moving parts here, but at WSWA, we use these rules to make certain that none of our clients pay penalties. Ever.

 

6. Budget Your Medical Subsidy

Medical benefits can cost substantially more from some companies in the oil & gas industry while you’re in retirement. Make sure you are properly planning for medical coverage in retirement and making it a part of your budget. We recommend a quick call to your benefits department and ask them to run a calculation of expected cost for your medical insurance in retirement.

A spouse may have a better or more affordable medical benefit. Be sure to examine all of your options.

 

7. Say “Goodbye” To Credit Card Debt

If you have significant credit card debt, then it’s time for a plan (there it is again!), a budget, and some hard work.

Credit card debt can be intimidating, but you can pay it off! At WSWA, one of our favorite things to see is a client freeing himself or herself from the stress of mounting credit card debt. You may just need some help and a plan.

 

8. Build Up 6 Months Worth Of Emergency Savings

We’re always optimistic about the future, but sometimes life takes surprising and difficult turns. Wise financial planning means being prepared for those situations.

We recommend that you save at least 6 months worth of living expenses in case of an emergency. So if you need $4,000/month to live, then have around $24,000 saved in savings and checking. That way, you’re prepared for the ups and downs that can happen.

 

9. Build And Keep A Budget

We get it: it’s no fun to build a budget. But writing down all your income and expenses will help you identify where you can save.

Building a budget doesn’t mean eliminating all of your fun, either. Get rid of the stuff you don’t use and keep what makes you happy! Do shop your auto insurance around for a better rate. Do call your phone company and reduce your bill. Don’t quit your bowling league if bowling makes you happy.

Not sure where to start with your budget? No problem. Use our free budget builder to make it easy.

 

10. Wait Until Full Retirement Age To Take Social Security

There is all kinds of information out there about what to do about your social security. Let me boil it all down to one simple point for you: you don’t have to take it at 62! When we build a financial plan for a client, we use a tool that calculates all options for optimizing social security. And no matter how many times we do it and how many ways we look at it, one thing becomes clear every time: it’s usually best to wait at least until your full retirement age (66-67) to take social security.

There is also plenty of evidence to support waiting until age 70 too as the 32% increase in benefit can prove worth the wait. These decisions are typically based around your health at age 62 when deciding to collect or to continue to defer. It’s ultimately your decision, and we suggest weighing your options before committing to collecting the 25% reduced benefit at age 62. *Note if your full retirement age is 67, collection social security at age 62 is 30% decrease in benefits. Long story short… it pays to be patient.

 

11. Use Your 401k Efficiently

Max it out. Diversify your investments. You could hire a pro (like us!) if you don’t love following the markets.

Maybe your 401(k) program allows you to buy common stock shares or has an ESOP programs. These can be hard to understand at times and also have significant tax implications. NUA? Ordinary rates vs. capital gains rate? What?

Make sure you are being tax efficient with your 401(k) when it comes to planning for retirement and managing your tax bill when you retire.

Plus, hiring a pro means you’ll have more time for bowling.

 

12. Have A Plan

You didn’t think this was going to end without one more reminder, did you? If you’re not sure where to start with your financial plan, that’s OK: we can help.

Plus, if you’re confused about any of the information above, then setting up a plan with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ (like our very own Aileen Danley, CFP®) is the easiest way to walk through all of it.


 

 

Schedule a free consultation to talk through your finances and take the first step toward building a confident retirement.

1eywfs

Tax Write Offs. Tax Write Offs Everywhere…

It’s no secret that streamers don’t like paying taxes, we don’t either. Don’t let taxes drag down your profits as a streamer or content creator.

Using bookkeeping software should be one of the first things you do to take control of your stream as a business and attempt to reduce your tax liability. Bookkeeping will allow you to classify your stream expenses and potentially turn them into tax write offs.

What can you write off you might be asking? Well let’s start with some of the easy ones:

Computer Equipment & Software – Yes this means games. Since you are most likely using games or other pieces of software to entertain your audience, this is a necessary business expense for you. Don’t forget that if you purchase computer parts, upgrades, or even a whole new system that this is necessary for you to complete your work  they can be written off

Your Streaming Space – Also known as your home office. Most people are streaming out of their homes, and that means that part of your mortgage or rent goes towards the space for your stream. This percentage of space can be written off every year. As a simple example, if you use 25% of your space for your stream, and your rent is $1,000, then you can write of $250 per month for a total of $3,000 per year.

Travel Expenses – I’m assuming you went to Twitchcon. Well, you guessed it, that travel expense can be deducted. You went to a location to help promote your business, maybe took some meetings, and tried to grow your brand. All of which are very legitimate business expenses.

Meals & Entertainment – Do you have a partner for your stream? Are you collaborating with other streamers? Well, if you go meet with them for coffee, lunch, or dinner, and discuss business during the meals, then the meal expense can be written off as a tax deduction. Up to 50% of the total expenses associated with meals & entertainment can be deducted as long as you are conducting business.

As you can see, if you are spending money on your business, the stream, then there is a possibility that the expense can be written off to lower your taxable income.

Contact Us to learn more about what you can do to lower your taxable income and protect your earnings as a streamer.

 

Joe Occhipinti


Joe Occhipinti
Joe@warrenstreetwealth.com
714.823.3328

Joe Occhipinti is an Investment Advisor Representative of Warren Street Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Advisor. The information posted here represents his opinions and is not meant as personal or actionable advice to any individual, corporation, or other entity. Any investments discussed carry unique risks and should be carefully considered and reviewed by you and your financial professional.  Nothing in this commentary is a solicitation to buy, or sell, any securities, or an attempt to furnish personal investment advice. We may hold securities referenced in the blog and due to the static nature of content, those securities held may change over time and trades may be contrary to outdated posts.

IRA-401k

Do Women Face Greater Retirement Challenges than Men?

Do Women Face Greater Retirement Challenges Than Men?
If so, how can they plan to meet those challenges?
Provided by Joe Occhipinti

A new study has raised eyebrows about the retirement prospects of women. It comes from the National Institute on Retirement Security, a non-profit, non-partisan research organization based in Washington, D.C. Studying 2012 U.S. Census data, NRIS found that women aged 65 and older had 26% less income than their male peers. Looking at Vanguard’s 2014 fact set on its retirement plans, NRIS learned that the median retirement account balance for women was 34% less than that of men.¹

Alarming numbers? Certainly. Two other statistics in the NRIS report are even more troubling. One, a woman 65 or older is 80% more likely to be impoverished than a man of that age. Two, the incidence of poverty is three times as great for a woman as it is for a man by age 75.¹²  

Why are women so challenged to retire comfortably? You can cite a number of factors that can potentially impact a woman’s retirement prospects and retirement experience. A woman may spend less time in the workforce during her life than a man due to childrearing and caregiving needs, with a corresponding interruption in both wages and workplace retirement plan participation. A divorce can hugely alter a woman’s finances and financial outlook. As women live longer on average than men, they face slightly greater longevity risk – the risk of eventually outliving retirement savings.

There is also the gender wage gap, narrowing, but still evident. As American Association of University Women research notes, the average female worker earned 79 cents for every dollar a male worker did in 2014 (in 1974, the ratio was 59 cents to every dollar).

What can women do to respond to these financial challenges? Several steps are worth taking.  

Invest early & consistently. Women should realize that, on average, they may need more years of retirement income than men. Social Security will not provide all the money they need, and,  in the future, it may not even pay out as much as it does today. Accumulated retirement savings will need to be tapped as an income stream. So saving and investing regularly through IRAs and workplace retirement accounts is vital, the earlier the better. So is getting the employer match, if one is offered. Catch-up contributions after 50 should also be a goal.

Consider Roth IRAs & HSAs. Imagine having a source of tax-free retirement income. Imagine having a healthcare fund that allows tax-free withdrawals. A Roth IRA can potentially provide the former; a Health Savings Account, the latter. An HSA is even funded with pre-tax dollars, as opposed to a Roth IRA, which is funded with after-tax dollars – so an HSA owner can potentially get tax-deductible contributions as well as tax-free growth and tax-free withdrawals.4

IRS rules must be followed to get these tax perks, but they are not hard to abide by. A Roth IRA need be owned for only five tax years before tax-free withdrawals may be taken (the owner does need to be older than age 59½ at that time). Those who make too much money to contribute to a Roth IRA can still convert a traditional IRA to a Roth. HSAs have to be used in conjunction with high-deductible health plans, and HSA savings must be withdrawn to pay for qualified health expenses in order to be tax-exempt. One intriguing HSA detail worth remembering: after attaining age 65 or Medicare eligibility, an HSA owner can withdraw HSA funds for non-medical expenses (these types of withdrawals are characterized as taxable income). That fact has prompted some journalists to label HSAs “backdoor IRAs.”4,5

Work longer in pursuit of greater monthly Social Security benefits. Staying in the workforce even one or two years longer means one or two years less of retirement to fund, and for each year a woman refrains from filing for Social Security after age 62, her monthly Social Security benefit rises by about 8%.6

Social Security also pays the same monthly benefit to men and women at the same age – unlike the typical privately funded income contract, which may pay a woman of a certain age less than her male counterpart as the payments are calculated using gender-based actuarial tables.7  

Find a method to fund eldercare. Many women are going to outlive their spouses, perhaps by a decade or longer. Their deaths (and the deaths of their spouses) may not be sudden. While many women may not eventually need months of rehabilitation, in-home care, or hospice care, many other women will.

Today, financially aware women are planning to meet retirement challenges. They are conferring with financial advisors in recognition of those tests – and they are strategizing to take greater control over their financial futures.

Joe Occhipinti may be reached at 714.823.3328 or Joe@warrenstreetwealth.com

www.warrenstreetwealth.com

 

 

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.

1 – bankrate.com/financing/retirement/retirement-women-should-worry/ [3/1/16]
2 – blackenterprise.com/small-business/women-age-65-are-becoming-poorest-americans/ [3/18/16]
3 – tinyurl.com/jq5mqhg [6/8/16]
4 – bankrate.com/finance/insurance/health-savings-account-rules-and-regulations.aspx [1/1/16]
5 – nerdwallet.com/blog/investing/know-rules-before-you-dip-into-roth-ira/ [1/29/16]
6 – fool.com/retirement/general/2016/05/29/when-do-most-americans-claim-social-security.aspx [5/29/16]
7 – investopedia.com/articles/retirement/05/071105.asp [6/16/16]

 

abc-blocks

The A, B, C, & D of Medicare

The A, B, C, & D of Medicare
Breaking down the basics & what each part covers.
Provided by Joe Occhipinti

Whether your 65th birthday is on the horizon or decades away, you should understand the parts of Medicare – what they cover, and where they come from.

Parts A & B: Original Medicare. America created a national health insurance program for seniors in 1965 with two components. Part A is hospital insurance. It provides coverage for inpatient stays at medical facilities. It can also help cover the costs of hospice care, home health care, and nursing home care – but not for long, and only under certain parameters.¹

Seniors are frequently warned that Medicare will only pay for a maximum of 100 days of nursing home care (provided certain conditions are met). Part A is the part that does so. Under current rules, you pay $0 for days 1-20 of skilled nursing facility (SNF) care under Part A. During days 21-100, a $161 daily coinsurance payment may be required of you.²

If you stop receiving SNF care for 30 days, you need a new 3-day hospital stay to qualify for further nursing home care under Part A. If you can go 60 days in a row without SNF care, the clock resets: you are once again eligible for up to 100 days of SNF benefits via Part A.²

Part B is medical insurance and can help pick up some of the tab for physical therapy, physician services, expenses for durable medical equipment (scooters, wheelchairs), and other medical services such as lab tests and varieties of health screenings.¹

Part B isn’t free. You pay monthly premiums to get it and a yearly deductible (plus 20% of costs). The premiums vary according to the Medicare recipient’s income level; in 2016, most Medicare recipients are paying $121.80 a month for their Part B coverage. The current yearly deductible is $166. Some people automatically get Part B, but others have to sign up for it.³

Part C: Medicare Advantage plans. Insurance companies offer these Medicare-approved plans. Part C plans offer seniors all the benefits of Part A and Part B and more: many feature prescription drug coverage and vision and dental benefits. To enroll in a Part C plan, you need have Part A and Part B coverage in place. To keep up your Part C coverage, you must keep up your payment of Part B premiums as well as your Part C premiums.4

To say not all Part C plans are alike is an understatement. Provider networks, premiums, copays, coinsurance, and out-of-pocket spending limits can all vary widely, so shopping around is wise. During Medicare’s annual Open Enrollment Period (Oct. 15 – Dec. 7), seniors can choose to switch out of Original Medicare to a Part C plan or vice versa; although any such move is much wiser with a Medigap policy already in place.5

How does a Medigap plan differ from a Part C plan? Medigap plans (also called Medicare Supplement plans) emerged to address the gaps in Part A and Part B coverage. If you have Part A and Part B already in place, a Medigap policy can pick up some copayments, coinsurance, and deductibles for you. Some Medigap policies can even help you pay for medical care outside the United States. You have to pay Part B premiums in addition to Medigap plan premiums to keep a Medigap policy in effect. These plans no longer offer prescription drug coverage; in fact, they have been sold without drug coverage since 2006.6   

Part D: prescription drug plans. While Part C plans commonly offer prescription drug coverage, insurers also sell Part D plans as a standalone product to those with Original Medicare. As per Medigap and Part C coverage, you need to keep paying Part B premiums in addition to premiums for the drug plan to keep Part D coverage going.7

Every Part D plan has a formulary, a list of medications covered under the plan. Most Part D plans rank approved drugs into tiers by cost. The good news is that Medicare’s website will determine the best Part D plan for you. Go to medicare.gov/find-a-plan to start your search; enter your medications and the website will do the legwork for you.8

Part C & Part D plans are assigned ratings. Medicare annually rates these plans (one star being worst; five stars being best) according to member satisfaction, provider network(s), and quality of coverage. As you search for a plan at medicare.gov, you also have a chance to check out the rankings.9

  

Joe Occhipinti may be reached at 714.823.3328 or Joe@Warrenstreetwealth.com

www.warrenstreetwealth.com

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.

1 – mymedicarematters.org/coverage/parts-a-b/whats-covered/ [6/13/16]
2 – medicare.gov/coverage/skilled-nursing-facility-care.html [6/13/16]
3 – medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/part-b-costs/part-b-costs.html [6/13/16]
4 – tinyurl.com/hbll34m [6/13/16]
5 – medicare.gov/sign-up-change-plans/when-can-i-join-a-health-or-drug-plan/when-can-i-join-a-health-or-drug-plan.html#collapse-3192 [6/13/16]
6 – medicare.gov/supplement-other-insurance/medigap/whats-medigap.html [6/13/16]
7 – ehealthinsurance.com/medicare/part-d-cost [6/13/16]
8 – medicare.gov/part-d/coverage/part-d-coverage.html [6/13/16]
9 – medicare.gov/sign-up-change-plans/when-can-i-join-a-health-or-drug-plan/five-star-enrollment/5-star-enrollment-period.html [6/13/16]

 

QuestionDollars

What Are Catch-Up Contributions Really Worth?

What Are Catch-Up Contributions Really Worth?
What degree of difference could they make for you in retirement?
Provided by Joe Occhipinti

At a certain age, you are allowed to boost your yearly retirement account contributions. For example, you can direct an extra $1,000 per year into a Roth or traditional IRA starting in the year you turn 50.¹

Your initial reaction to that may be: “So what? What will an extra $1,000 a year in retirement savings really do for me?”

That reaction is understandable, but consider also that you can contribute an extra $6,000 a year to many workplace retirement plans starting at age 50. As you likely have both types of accounts, the opportunity to save and invest up to $7,000 a year more toward your retirement savings effort may elicit more enthusiasm.¹ ²

What could regular catch-up contributions from age 50-65 potentially do for you? They could result in an extra $1,000 a month in retirement income, according to the calculations of retirement plan giant Fidelity. To be specific, Fidelity says that an employee who contributes $24,000 instead of $18,000 annually to the typical employer-sponsored plan could see that kind of positive impact. ²

To put it another way, how would you like an extra $50,000 or $100,000 in retirement savings? Making regular catch-up contributions might help you bolster your retirement funds by that much – or more.  Plugging in some numbers provides a nice (albeit hypothetical) illustration.³

Even if you simply make $1,000 additional yearly contributions to a Roth or traditional IRA starting in the year you turn 50, those accumulated catch-ups will grow and compound to about $22,000 when you are 65 if the IRA yields just 4% annually. At an 8% annual return, you will be looking at about $30,000 extra for retirement. (Besides all this, a $1,000 catch-up contribution to a traditional IRA can also reduce your income tax bill by $1,000 for that year.)³   

If you direct $24,000 a year rather than $18,000 a year into one of the common workplace retirement plans starting at age 50, the math works out like this: you end up with about $131,000 in 15 years at a 4% annual return, and $182,000 by age 65 at an 8% annual return.³

If your financial situation allows you to max out catch-up contributions for both types of accounts, the effect may be profound indeed. Fifteen years of regular, maximum catch-up contributions to both an IRA and a workplace retirement plan would generate $153,000 by age 65 at a 4% annual yield, and $212,000 at an 8% annual yield.³

The more you earn, the greater your capacity to “catch up.” This may not be fair, but it is true.

Fidelity says its overall catch-up contribution participation rate is just 8%. The average account balance of employees 50 and older making catch-ups was $417,000, compared to $157,000 for employees who refrained. Vanguard, another major provider of employer-sponsored retirement plans, finds that 42% of workers aged 50 and older who earn more than $100,000 per year make catch-up contributions to its plans, compared with 16% of workers on the whole within that demographic.²

Even if you are hard-pressed to make or max out the catch-up each year, you may have a spouse who is able to make catch-ups. Perhaps one of you can make a full catch-up contribution when the other cannot, or perhaps you can make partial catch-ups together. In either case, you are still taking advantage of the catch-up rules.

Catch-up contributions should not be dismissed. They can be crucial if you are just starting to save for retirement in middle age or need to rebuild retirement savings at mid-life. Consider making them; they may make a significant difference for your savings effort.  

 

 

 

Joe Occhipinti may be reached at 714.823.3328 or Joe@warrenstreetwealth.com

 

www.warrenstreetwealth.com

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.
1 – nasdaq.com/article/retirement-savings-basics-sign-up-for-ira-roth-or-401k-cm627195 [11/30/15]
2 – time.com/money/4175048/401k-catch-up-contributions/ [1/11/16]
3 – marketwatch.com/story/you-can-make-a-lot-of-money-with-retirement-account-catch-up-contributions-2016-03-21 [3/21/16]

 

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You Retire, But Your Spouse Still Works

That development may mean lifestyle as well as financial adjustments.
Provided by Joe Occhipinti

 Your significant other may retire later than you do. Sometimes that reality reflects an age difference, other times one person wants to keep working for income or health coverage reasons. If you retire years before your spouse or partner does, you may want to consider how your lifestyle might change as well as your household finances.

How will retiring affect your identity? If you are one of those people who derives a great deal of pride and sense of self from your profession, leaving that career for life around the house may feel odd. Who are you now? Who will you become next? Can you retire and still be who you were? Hopefully, your spouse recognizes that you may have to entertain these questions. They may prompt some soul-searching, even enough to affect a relationship.

How much down time do you want? That is worth discussing with your spouse or partner. If you absolutely hate your job, you may want weeks, months, or years of relaxation after leaving it. You can figure out what to do next in good time. Alternately, you may see every day of retirement as a day for achievement; a day to get something done or connect with someone new. Your significant other should know whether you prefer an active, ambitious retirement or a more relaxed one.

How will household chores or caregiving be handled? Picture your loved one arising at 6:30am on a January morning, bundling up, heading for work and navigating inclement weather, all as you sleep in. Your spouse or partner may grow a bit envious of your retirement freedom. One way to offset that envy is to assume more of the everyday chores around the house.

For many baby boomers, caregiving is also a daily event. When one spouse or partner retires, that can rebalance the caregiving “equation.” One or more individuals have to provide 100% of the eldercare needed, and retirement can make shared percentages more equitable or allow a greater role for a son or daughter in that caregiving. Some people even retire to become a caregiver to Mom or Dad.

Do you have kids living at home? Adult children? Right now, in this country, every fifth young adult is living with his or her parents. With so many new college graduates having to accept part-time or low-paying service industry jobs, and with education loan debt averaging roughly $30,000 per indebted graduate, this situation will persist for years and, perhaps, even become a new normal.1

You and your loved ones may find yourself on different timetables. Maybe your spouse or partner works from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. in a high-stress job. Maybe your children attend school on roughly the same schedule. How do they get to and from those places? Probably through a rush-hour commute, either in a car or amid the crowds lined up for mass transit. If you have abandoned the daily grind, you may have an enthusiasm and a chattiness in the evening that they lack. Maybe they just want to unwind at 6:30pm, but you might be anxious to reconnect with them after a day alone at home.

Talk about retirement before you retire. What should your daily life look like? What are the most important things you want out of the retirement experience? How do your answers to those questions align or contrast with the answers of your best friend? As you retire, make sure that your spouse or partner knows your point of view, and be sure to respect his or hers in the bargain.

Joe Occhipinti may be reached at 714.823.3328 or Joe@warrenstreetwealth.com.

www.WarrenStreetWealth.com

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

   

Citations.

1 – chicagotribune.com/business/success/savingsgame/tca-boomerang-children-affecting-parents-retirement-plans-20160413-story.html [4/13/16]

ThankALineman_1028x1028_IG

National Lineman Appreciation Day

We at Warren Street Wealth Advisors want to personally thank all of the lineman out there in the world.

These brave people are on call 24/7, 365 to make sure that we still can still have power in all of our house, along with all the other luxuries we enjoy in our home.

From all of us at Warren Street, thank you for all that you do. We greatly appreciate it.

6

Turmoil in China, Oil, and the US Markets

Why is the turmoil in China and the drop in oil prices depressing the U.S. markets?

Marcia Clark, CFA, MBA, Senior Research Analyst & Wealth Advisor, Warren Street Wealth Advisors

January 25, 2016  10:43am Pacific time

In case you’ve been enjoying an extended holiday season, you may not realize that January 2016 is on track to become the worst January for the U.S. stock market since 2009. How worried should you be? Based on my analysis, my opinion is that the stock market has over-reacted to both the turmoil in the Chinese stock market and the drop in oil prices. Investments in companies other than oil producers, particularly those that benefit from cheaper oil prices, may deliver good results in the coming year.

S&P 500 February 1st, 2015 – January 2nd, 2016

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Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND

And the bond market hasn’t been immune. Yields on below-investment grade bonds in particular spiked to levels not seen since 2012.

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https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2

But why have the U.S. markets reacted so strongly to the Chinese market and oil prices? Has the U.S. economy encountered an unexpected pothole? Have an excessive amount of U.S. businesses or homeowners declared bankruptcy? Have scandals erupted in key corporations? Has the U.S. Congress threatened to shut down the government rather than pass a budget? No, none of these things has happened. Yes, industrial production and corporate profits have hit a bit of a slump. But the U.S. job market – probably the best indicator of imminent recession – continues to rebound with 292,000 new jobs in December and 2.7 million new jobs for the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

To recap the past few months in the Chinese stock market, as reported by The Economist (January 25, 2016), in early July 2015 China’s stock market crashed with share prices dropping by a third, wiping out some $3.5 trillion in wealth (more than the total value of India’s stock market).

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A further plunge on August 24 followed by a fall of similar proportions the next day sent share prices down over 40% below their 2015 peak.

Since the summer, the Chinese stock market had rebounded approximately 20%, so one hoped that the worst was over. Unfortunately, on January 4th and again on January 7th the CSI 300 index of ‘blue chip’ Chinese stocks fell approximately 7% and fears of a serious economic decline were renewed.

Given that that Chinese stock market has indeed experienced a challenging 6 months, how can we extrapolate the severity of the problem to U.S. investors? Ultimately, the value of any stock market should reflect the profitability of domestic businesses.

On January 19th, China reported its official annual GDP growth figure for 2015 at 6.9%, just a shade lower than 2014’s 7.3%, and much stronger than average global forecast GDP of 2.8%, reported by the Conference Board.org in November 2015.

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The worry seems to be that the official GDP figure may be manipulated by the Chinese government and that much worse lies ahead.

But how much of the decline in the Chinese economy should legitimately be reflected in the U.S. economy? It is difficult to calculate a precise figure, but for context see the table below.

Country Exports Imports Total Trade Percent of Total
China 106.1 443.9 549.9 16.0%
Canada 259.0 271.6 530.6 15.4%
Mexico 217.8 271.6 489.4 14.2%
Japan 57.7 119.8 177.5 5.1%
Germany 45.9 113.4 159.3 4.6%
South Korea 40.1 66.4 106.5 3.1%
United Kingdom 52.0 53.7 105.7 3.1%
France 27.6 43.7 71.3 2.1%
India 20.0 41.7 61.7 1.8%
Taiwan 24.0 37.5 61.5 1.8%

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/top/top1511yr.html

As of November 2015, China was indeed the largest trade partner with the U.S., so changes in their economy could definitely impact ours. However, note that exports – which bring profits to U.S. businesses – are much smaller than imports. This should buffer the impact of the Chinese decline somewhat. So troubles in the Chinese economy can indeed impact the U.S., though by how much is very difficult to say.

But what about falling oil prices?

As an input to so much of what we consume, lower oil prices depress final goods prices – including gasoline – which leaves more money in consumers’ pocket to buy other things. Yes, a severe drop in oil prices driven by a lack of demand would definitely indicate a recession, but that’s not what’s happening these past months. The problem is an overabundance of supply.

With the widespread use of hydraulic fracturing in the U.S., crude oil production in the U.S. has spiked to levels not seen in the last 30 years. With OPEC countries maintaining production near historic levels, and global demand growth increasing only modestly, basic laws of economics indicate that the market price of oil must fall.

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https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=4

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So where does that leave us? Yes, we should be concerned about the market turmoil in China as that country adjusts to a slower, but still strong, growth rate of their economy. Declining oil prices caused by excess supply is a good thing for consumers, but will depress profits of oil producers which can be a large component of stock market indexes.

On balance, the U.S. economy remains on an upward trajectory. Recent declines in the stock market should be viewed as a buying opportunity. But be selective! Companies whose revenues are strongly tied to the price of oil may continue to struggle until supply and demand reach a new equilibrium.